1. Biodiversity- the future? To look at possible futures for the biodiversity of our planet

2. Current problems Only 12% of Earth is said to warrant protection. Only 1% of marine areas Protected areas are fragmented and unevenly distributed Funds are short, especially in LDC countries Although it is said to be protected does not mean area will be successfully conserved Areas not protected are still very threatened by pollution, climate change invasive species and unsustainable development

3. Biodiversity and the Millennium Development Goals The millennium development goals adopted by world leaders in September 2000 at the millennium UN summit The 8 MDGs break down into 21 quantifiable targets that are measured by 60 indicators. Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development

4. Obviously goal 7 deals explicitly with biodiversity, but biodiversity is interlinked with many other goals Eradicating hunger (goal 1) depends much on sustainable agricultural production, which relies on maintaining soils The capacity of fisheries to supply hundreds of people with bulk of protein depends on maintaining coral and mangroves Improving health and sanitation (goals 4,5 and 6)require healthy freshwater ecosystems to provide adequate clean water and medicinal resources This contributes to gender equality (MDG 3) as women are mainly responsible for water collection

5. Link between poverty and biodiversity Poverty and biodiversity are inextricably linked Poor ~(esp rural) rely on biodiversity for food, fuel, shelter, medicine and livelihood Biodiversity also provides the critical ecosystems on which development depends, including air and water purification Biodiversity exacerbates poverty and likewise poverty is a major threat to biodiversity

6. Scenarios The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA), tried to explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well being by 2050 They explored a)New development pathways- one where world increasingly globalises, the other where it becomes increasingly regional b)2 different approaches to ecosystem management- one in which actions are reactive and most problems are addressed only after they are obvious, the other in which ecosystem management is proactive and policies seek to manage ecosystem services for the future

7. The MEAs 4 scenarios GLOBAL ORCHESTRATION (1) Globally connected society focussing on global trade and economic liberalisation Approach to ecosystem issues is reactive. Strong steps are taken to reduce poverty and inequality and invests in public goods. Economic growth is highest here and predicted population is lowest ORDER FROM STRENGTH (2) Regionalised and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection. Little attention to public goods. Reactive approach to ecosystem management Economic growth rates are lowest (esp in poorer areas) Population growth is the highest ADAPTING MOSAIC (3) Regional watershed scale ecosystems are focus of political and economic activity. Local management of ecosystems common. Proactive ecosystem management. Initial economic growth is low but increases over time. Population nearly as high as in 2 TECHNO GARDEN (4) Globally connected world reliant on env sound tech, using highly managed ecosystems to deliver services. Takes a proactive approach to ecosystem management Economic growth relatively high and accelerates. Population is mid range of scenarios

8. Photocopy page 97 of PAllan And 130-33 of oxford What are the pros and cons of each of the 4 scenarios? Which overall do you think offers the best scenario? Why?

9. WWF’s living Planet Index Report Defines two possible pathways (actions and ways), on the basis of these WWF anticipates 4 possible scenarios Business as usual- increased ecological footprint and no reduction in the overshoot (ecological deficit) or of the degree to which consumption exceeds biological capacities Slow shift- gradual eco footprint reduction through developing sustainable policies so that biological capacities recover by 2100 Rapid reduction- radical policies to control ecological footprint, overshoot eliminated by 2040 Shrink and share- breaking down the world into regions in order to share responsibilities of controlling overshoot by global cooperation

10. The convention on Biodiversity Signed by 150 world leaders at Rio Earth Summit in 1992 Signed to achieve reduction in current loss rate of biodiversity at all scales Convention recognises people’s role in protection and conservation that people need to have security before protecting the environment around them The positive trend from this Protected areas have doubled Water quality has been improved

11. What are the prospects of achieving the target? Temperate degradation is predicted to reduce, but tropical will increase Time lags are too big changes cannot make a difference over night it takes years, so sooner started sooner results seen Agricultural efficiency needs to improve rapidly to reduce impact on biodiversity Trade agreements should involve looking at how biodiversity is affected Strategies to reduce poverty need to include conservation and sustainable biodiversity use

12. Which of 4 most likely to be achieved? discuss

13. Review Questions Analyse the 4 MEA scenarios assess which you think is most likely to be achieved (14 marks) How far is it possible to reconcile the desire for development with the need to manage biodiversity (14 marks)