1. 10/05/041 Satellite Data in the Verification of Model cloud forecasts Christoph Zingerle Tartu, 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 HiRLAM mini workshop on clouds and convection a convective case in summer 2003 seen from NOAA satellites

2. 10/05/041 Outline HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 - Verification: Alignments for Satellite Data - Satellite Data - Case studies - Outlook / Future

3. 10/05/041 Verification Comparing Observations to Forecast - Point measurements – volumes / fields - Observation and forecast are on different scale / location - Problems verifying fields of meteorological data e.g. rain, clouds, radar reflectivity HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005

4. 10/05/041 Verification HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005

5. 10/05/041 Verification temperature humidity cloud fraction cloud liquid water cloud ice water total cloud water surface data (p, T, rH) RTTOV-8 - Simulates clear/cloudy multilevel infrared and microwave radiances - Consistent random-overlap scheme for clouds in different levels - Multiphase cloud field: water / ice / mixed HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005

6. 10/05/041 Satellite Data HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005

7. 10/05/041 NOAA AVHRR satellite image - Re-sampling needed - Preprocessed AVHRR image (calibrated and navigated) pixel center in the grid-box corresponding to the HIRLAM grid pixel assigned to this grid-box - Assumptions: HIRLAM grid value represents average over all the values in box Neighbouring pixels tend to have similar properties HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Satellite Data

8. 10/05/041 full resolution, 30.4.2004 (10.8µ) after re-sampling, 30.4.2004 (10.8µ) HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005

9. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case 15. – 17. July 2005 - All NOAA satellite observations of that periode - Small domain covering little more than Scandinavia - Forecasts re-run at ECMWF in May 2004 with reference HiRLAM of last summer. - Irregular distribution (time and space) of the satellite overpasses MODEL: SATELLITE DATA:

10. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case

11. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case all observations surface / clear sky convection observed

12. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case

13. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case morning

14. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case

15. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case afternoon

16. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case afternoon

17. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case night

18. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005

19. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Convective Case afernoon 2 (+34h)

20. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Evolution histogram

21. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Evolution histogram

22. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Conclusions - Higher surface temperatures observed than forecasted - Convective clouds in model general to warm – convection not strong enough? - Advected clouds have smaller differences Satellite Data: - RTM’s are a very useful tool also in verification - Up / Dowonscaling methods have to be tested more extensively (true observation?) - Continuous observations are needed - Error decompostion needed! (postion, area, intensity)

23. 10/05/041 HiRLAM mini workshop, Tartu 24. – 26. Jan. 2005 Future - Continuous observations – METEOSAT 7/8 - This case: more forecasts – more details (lead time) - Adaption of error decompostion software - Satellite / SYNOP comparison