1. Project Management Lecture 22 Readings Chapter 14 Lecture 22 Short Project Management.XLSX Lecture 22 Project Management.XLSX Lecture 22 Event Management.XLSX Lecture 22 Have Some Fun.XLSX

2. Project Management Project management involves estimating the length of time to complete a project Once a project has been undertaken then a project manager is responsible for carrying out the project on the assigned time table How do the managers establish a time schedule –Generally based on average length of time for each component –Average length of time based on past experience Length of time to complete each step is a random variable

3. Project Management Who does project management? –Engineers, managers, accountants –They estimate number of days to completion Generally do not incorporate risk Benefits of incorporating risk into project management analysis –Assign a probability to number of days until project is completed –Assign a probability to getting a project done in a fixed timeframe; potential bonus

4. Project Management KOV for a project management problem is: How many days will it take? There is no final answer until project is completed Answer is an unknown PDF of days, weeks, or months to completion Simulation provides a methodology for estimating unknown PDFs Formulate the problem as a Monte Carlo simulation problem

5. Project Management Model formulation –KOV is “Number of Days” to completion –Identify each task (step) for project –Specify order of each task for the project Identify bottlenecks where tasks will wait on precious stages –Determine the PDFs for number of days (or weeks, months, etc.) to complete each task Rely on experience from past jobs Depend on experts or subcontractors for the time to complete each task PDF may be dependent on resources available

6. Project Management Critical to identify the order of the tasks and their linkages (dependencies), for example: –Task 10 starts after Tasks 5 and 8 are completed –Task 11 starts after Task 10 is completed Thus, Task 5 or 8 could hold up the whole project –If analysis shows 5 is the bottleneck is it worth investing more resources in Task 5 to get the project completed earlier?

7. Project Management Create a simple Project Network Diagram to summarize the order of tasks Drawn it in Excel with simple arrows and boxes Network diagram shows potential bottlenecks

8. Project Management Tasks 1-6, 2 and 3 wait on 1, 4 waits on 2, 5 waits on 3 and 4, last task (6) waits on 5 Assumes next task starts day after its predecessor ends Days in column C are GRKS() stochastic

9. Project Management Scheduled number of days to complete the project is 45 days P(Days>45)=?

10. Spreadsheet of a Project Management Analysis

11. Project Management Expanded I like to add a second KOV – Cost We know cost of a project is stochastic So project management model can simulate PDFs for days and cost In the example $/day costs for each task are multiplied by stochastic days

12. Bid Analysis As a manager one job is to estimate how much to bid a contract We can use the project management, cost analysis to estimate the best bid for a contract The costs are at risk and if we bid to low our profits are reduced or an actual loss is incurred Bid to high and your company does not get the job

13. Bid Analysis as a Stochastic Problem

15. Event Planner Event planner KOVs –Number of days ahead to start planning an event –Cost of the event Research application KOVs –Time to complete a research project –Cost of a project Wedding planner –Probability of being ready on time –Cost of the event Banquet planner

16. Event Planner