1. Does Frustration lead to Violence? By Taleisha Jones, Daniel Peterson, Itzcally Ponce and Tran Vuong

2. Overview Introduction - Taleisha Research Procedures- Tran Results & Long Term Applications - Itzcally Critiques - Everyone Analysis of: Duhem - Tran Kuhn & Popper - Daniel Conclusion - Taleisha

3. Introduction Does Frustration Lead to Violence? Evidence from the Swedish Hooligan Scene by Mikael Priks Sweden, 2010 Italian Soccer Game, 2007 100 people injured One officer killed

4. Background Hooliganism Assistant Professor at Stockholm University Research interests: Political Economics, Public Finance and Law and Economics.

5. Research Procedures An economic research with 3 analyses examining: Relationship of spectators frustration and position of their supporting team Psychology patterns of spectators: violence level when the game is played on home field or away Norm-breaking behavior from participants in organized hooligan violence

6. Model and Data Source Model: Multi-variable Linear Regression Data Source: Analysis 1 & 2: from referees at the Swedish league Allsvenskan stadium Analysis 3: Swedish hooligan organization Firman Boys

7. Results Table Two: Frustration and Unruly Behavior Team performs worse in terms of position in the league, supporters are more likely to be disorderly. One drop in league position leads to an increase on the number of incidents in a game by 6 percent. Absolute position in the league does not affect unruly behavior Based on the results, supporters do not seem aggressive when their favorite team performs consistently bad.

8. Results Table Three: Frustration and Unruly Behavior by Home and Away Supporters Home supporters act more unruly when their team under performs and falls in league standings. The chance of incidents increases by 9%. Supporters do not respond to a negative change in their team's league standing, when at away games.

9. Results Table Four: Frustration and the Number of Supporters Per Game No significant correlation to suggest that fans base their decision to go or not go to a game based on the previous match's result. Improved absolute position in the league does increase the number of organized supporters. A one-position improvement leads to 31 more organized supporters or a 5 percent increase in supporters.

10. Results Table Five: Frustration and Norm Breaking Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings does not affect the number of incidents when hooligans use weapons in fights Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings affects the number of bottle throwing incidents by 15 %. Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings affects norm-braking of kicking someone when they are on the ground by 25 %.

11. Interpretation of Results Team's worsen performance, relative to team's position in league standings, can trigger aggressive behavior. Therefore, Hooligan violence is not spontaneous.

12. Long Term Applications This information can help police officers asses how frustrated fans might be before a match. This will allow them to coordinate a strategy to prevent and stop hooligan violence

13. Long Term Applications Information can also help law enforcement with group violence (e.g. street gangs) in general. This information can help policy makers formulate a strategy to prevent and stop group violence.

14. Critiques Flaws in research gathering methods: Research is all second hand sources from referee's in Swedish soccer league Referee's reports maybe unreliable since there first priority is to officiate the soccer match, thrill seeking and immediate frustrations).

15. Critiques How can they be so certain what fans, home or away, are acting unruly? If the reports are of single incidents, we can factor in many more reasons for disorderly conduct (Alcohol, thrill seeking and immediate frustrations).

16. Critiques Alcohol Consumption Altercations Misguided frustration Conformity Frustration or following the crowd?

17. Critiques Why is it irrelevant to: Labor Supply Unemployment: Seasonal, Structural, Cyclical and Frictional. Frictional unemployment: small portion in total & not follow Supply & Demand High-paid jobs and the unemployed are not willing to accept lower paying jobs until they find good ones.

18. Critiques Why is it irrelevant to: Price-Setting Firms target a reference price point when they launch a new product which demand is too hard to estimate. Firms adjust price after having some understanding about market and demand.

19. Critiques Linear Regression Model: Very low R 2 -How probable the observations/variables can explain for Y? -How confident the model can be explanatory to the theory? Answer: R 2 needs to be high, ~ 80% -Research provided: R 2 <30%

20. Critiques based on Duhem’s work Is the researcher open-minded or blinded by desire for certain results? Influence Data collection bias Is the researcher aware of holism of theory, apparatus, and auxiliary hypotheses? Eliminating a subset of evidence

21. Popper’s View Falsifiability is described as the situation in which (1) no positive result can either confirm or verify a hypothesis, yet (2) any single negative result has the ability to disprove it. Is it violated? Is it followed?

22. Popper’s View – Violated? Frustration-Aggression Hypothesis: Thwarted expectations from a reference point that should lead to aggression. The results found to be a confirmation of the hypothesis, a positive result (1). This means the issue of falsifiability is violated.

23. Popper’s View – Followed? It was not explicitly stated that falsifiability was followed. Falsifiability: (2) any single negative result may disprove the hypothesis. Priks allowed for this negative result

24. Kuhn’s View Community Paradigm: Source bias: Stockholm University: Department of Economics Busy work or New Paradigm? Paradigm & Political Agenda

25. Kuhn’s View - Bias “The data is ideal since I know which team’s supporters are involved in the unruly behavior. I can therefore study how a team’s performance affects the unruly behavior by its supporters.” - Priks

26. Kuhn’s View – Busy Work It is not a new paradigm, but busy work that this research underscores. The research grasps for validation of the frustration-aggression hypothesis.

27. Kuhn’s View – Paradigm The paradigm is essentially underscored by this statement from Priks: “this notion [Frustration-Aggression Hypothesis] can help explaining youth violence, terrorism, and aggression in the workplace” (research citations removed)

28. Kuhn’s View – Paradigm Does this paradigm lend to the study of such specific validating research as Swedish Hooliganism? This underlying agenda suggests a bias for the research results, and discord between the results and the truth of the hypothesis.

29. Conclusion Does Frustration Lead to Violence?

30. Reference Priks, M. (2010). Does Frustration Lead to Violence? Evidence from the Swedish Hooligan Scene. Kyklos, 63(3), 450-460. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2010.00482.x.

31. Questions