1. 1 The OECD/CERI foresight study on higher education: impact on policy and decision-making Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin Analyst OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation Joint Research Center’s “Future-Oriented Technology Analysis : Impacts on policy and decision making” Seville - 28-29 September 2006

2. 2 Outline of my presentation OECD/CERI project on the future of higher education –Purpose –Methodology What impact on policy and decision-making?

3. 3 Purpose of the project Help policymakers and stakeholders make strategic choices regarding the future Develop a set of long-term scenarios to engage stakeholders in discussion about the future Give common tools and information to think about the future (NOT predicting the future) Policy-oriented and international

4. 4 Related OECD work on tertiary education Internationalisation and trade in higher education (2002- 2007) Quality and recognition in higher education (2002-05) E-learning in tertiary education (2004-05) OECD thematic review on tertiary education (2004-2008) –22 countries –Based on country reports and national review visits –Different time horizon, state of the art, policy recommendations

5. 5 Project methodology Analytical and thematic study of major trends Dialogue with stakeholders and experts Development of Scenarios

6. 6 Analytical and thematic study Technology –E-learning in tertiary education, Cyber-infrastructures, gaming & education, open culture… Demographic change –General trends in society (ageing, migrations, development of demographic giants, etc.), change in the number and type of students, staff demographics Globalisation, market forces and financing –Internationalisation and trade in higher education, future of the private sector, international Quality Assurance, future of financing, etc. University research –Concentration of research, competition with business R&D, internationalisation, rise of private funding, etc. Changing labour market demand & higher education

7. 7 Analytical and thematic study Expert meetings with participants from different backgrounds and countries Policy makers and politicians (former Ministers) Academics Stakeholders (students, teacher unions, trade unions, business representatives, university associations) Longitudinal data collection Qualitative and quantitative analysis

8. 8 Feedback from presentations & consultation Building scenarios: an incremental process 1st public set 2nd public set Scenario building exercises Ideas / Test Analysis Technology Demography Globalisation & Market Research Labour market demand

9. 9 Current set of 4 scenarios Open networking Serving local communities New public responsibility Higher education, Inc.

10. 10 Next steps Completing the analytical work –Two books planned for early 2007 on demography and technology –More expert meetings and reports to com Final set of scenarios (improved or new) (early 2008)

11. 11 What kinds of scenarios have an impact? A set that triggers a good discussion and a lasting impression… –Challenging but with visibly relevant –on substance and implications of the scenarios, not on methodology –included strong criticism In practice –Importance of presentation and wording –Importance of trends analysis and analytical work –Find the right balance between radicality and projections

12. 12 Challenges Visibility by target audience(s) Willingness of people to engage in discussion (« Callicles » syndrom) Interest several audiences from 30 different countries Know whether, how and by whom the futures work is used Have people create their own scenarios (more relevant to their specific context)

13. 13 A few outcomes of the project so far Process generates a lot of discussion, including at senior policy-making level –Presentation and discussion at the Forum of the latest OECD Ministerial Public reactions of stakeholders (EI & ESIB) and use by other stakeholders Use in academic settings Press articles

14. 14 Thank you Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org