1. CE-QUAL-W2 Shasta Modeling
Katherine Clancey
Laurel Saito, Ph.D., P.E.
Project Update - July ##, 2015
Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences
University of Nevada, Reno

2. Outline Meteorological data for Shasta Lake
Recalibration/verification of CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) Shasta model
Reliability of W2 water temperatures
Selecting segments to simulate temperature curtains

3. Meteorological data Hourly inputs to W2:
air temperature
relative humidity
wind speed
Observed data at Shasta Lake: daily air temperature
California Data Exchange Center (
Stations: Shasta Dam-Water Quality (SHD) & Shasta Dam-USBR (SHS)
wind direction
cloud cover

4. Meteorological data Two datasets available for W2 Shasta model:
Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta Lake
NOAA National Climatic Data Center (
Station: NOAA AWS
North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

5. Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta Lake
Meteorological data
Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta Lake
Used methods from Saito (1999):
Air temperatures: adjustment uses change in elevation between Redding and Shasta Lake (~600 ft difference)
Dewpoint: adjustment uses change in elevation
Wind speed: adjustment uses regression equation
Wind direction: uses Redding data without adjustment
Cloud cover: uses Redding data without adjustment

6. NARR data Output from numerical weather prediction model
Meteorological data
NARR data
Output from numerical weather prediction model
assimilate data from various sources:
upper air soundings
hourly and daily meteorology observations
satellite
Provides all meteorological data needed for W2
Used grid cell data nearest to Shasta Dam
Grid resolution is approximately 0.3 degrees (32 km)
3-hour increments

7. Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHS station
Meteorological data
Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHS station

8. Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHD station
Meteorological data
Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHD station

9. Wind rose Wind is predominantly in the NW direction at Shasta Lake
Meteorological data
Wind rose
Wind is predominantly in the NW direction at Shasta Lake

10. Recalibration of W2 Shasta model

11. Verification of W2

12. Verification of W2
Water surface elevation (calibration year): January 1995 to December 1995

13. Water surface elevation (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Verification of W2
Water surface elevation (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

14. Water surface elevation (median year): January 2003 to September 2004
Verification of W2
Water surface elevation (median year): January 2003 to September 2004

15. Water surface elevation (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006
Verification of W2
Water surface elevation (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006

16. Verification of W2
Water temperature at segment 41 on the McCloud River: January 1995 to December 1995
Elevation (m)
Temperature oC

17. Verification of W2
Water temperature at segment 53/54 on the Sacramento River: January 1995 to December 1995
Elevation (m)
Temperature oC

18. Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2
Verification of W2
Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2
Slight differences in performance metrics
Pros of using NARR data:
Currently being used to predict water temperatures in Sacramento River
All meteorological data needed for W2 is in NARR dataset
Cons:
Meteorological data is for entire grid which covers a large area
3-hour increments – need adjustment

19. Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2
Verification of W2
Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2
Pros of using Redding data adjusted to Shasta:
Method used for previous W2 model applications.
Data available in an hourly timestep
Cons:
Data adjusted through several different methods
Conclusion: Use NARR data for meteorological input to W2

20. Reliability of W2 water temperatures
Forebay temperatures
Obtained data for 2001 to 2003 from USBR
No data available for 2004 to 2006

21. 2001-2002 Forebay temperatures (dry year)
Reliability of W2
Forebay temperatures (dry year)
Elevation (ft)
Temperature oC

22. 2003 Forebay temperatures (median year)
Reliability of W2
2003 Forebay temperatures (median year)
Elevation (ft)
Temperature oC

23. Overall performance metrics
Reliability of W2
Overall performance metrics

24. Water temperatures comparisons at the most upstream segments of the W2 model
Reliability of W2
CDEC Station ID: DLT
Latitude oN
Longitude oW
CDEC Station ID: MSS
Latitude oN
Longitude oW
Sacramento River
McCloud River
CDEC Station ID: PMN
Latitude oN
Longitude oW
Squaw Creek
Pit River
Shasta Dam
Not to scale

25. Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Reliability of W2
Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

26. Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Reliability of W2
Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

27. Reliability of W2
Water temperature comparison (median year): January 2003 to September 2004

28. Reliability of W2
Water temperature comparison (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006

29. Temperature curtains
Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Fall-run Chinook salmon only
Fall and spring-run Chinook salmon only
All runs
No runs
Sacramento River
McCloud River
Squaw Creek
Pit River
Shasta Dam

30. Temperature curtains
Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (median year): January 2003 to September 2004
Fall-run Chinook salmon only
All runs
No runs
Sacramento River
McCloud River
Squaw Creek
Pit River
Shasta Dam

31. Temperature curtains
Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006
Fall-run Chinook salmon only
All runs
No runs
Sacramento River
McCloud River
Squaw Creek
Pit River
Shasta Dam

32. References
Saito, L. S., 1999, Interdisciplinary modeling at Shasta Lake, Fort Collins: Colorado State University (Ph.D. dissertation)
Caldwell, J., 2015, Shasta Modeling Project Coupling CE-QUAL-W2 and RAFT (Draft), MetStat, Inc.
QUESTIONS?