1. OREGON MODELING IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM An Analysis Toolbox for Decision-Makers: A Focus on Freight and the Economy May 2004

2. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW Oregon integrated analysis program –Program overview –Recent interest in freight –Project implications Economic & Bridge Options Study –Case study –$2.5B investment in Oregon infrastructure

3. COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM

4. WHY ARE DECISION-MAKING TOOLS IMPORTANT? Allow policy makers to: –Use fact-based information along with anecdotal –Minimize bias Help identify unintended results of policy decisions Account for dynamic interaction of transportation, land use and economic policies

5. FREIGHT IS THE ECONOMY IN MOTION Movement of passenger vehicles has been the focus in transportation The push has been to relate transportation with land use BUT, land use and transportation are indirectly related through economic activity

6. HISTORICAL APPROACH TO TRUCK TRAFFIC Trucks were treated as “large cars” –Passenger car equivalency values Truck freight is a recent issue –Reserve capacity being used up Effects of limited capacity differ –Cars carry passengers –Trucks carry freight

7. HIGHWAY FREIGHT ISSUES Reliability and connectivity Delay – expected and unexpected Competitive edge –Expanded markets Elevate freight in policy discussions –Clearly define issues and impacts

9. INTEGRATED ANALYSIS CHANGES THE QUESTIONS Yesterday What if we build X? How bad is congestion going to get? Today Truck-rail diversion Network reliability Economic competitiveness Market accessibility in a global context Sustainability Equity Leverage for public- private financing Pricing

10. MOVE FROM A LINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Technical Analysis Results Policy Question Decision/ Action

11. MOVE FROM A LINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Technical Analysis Results Policy Question Decision/ Action TO A COLLABORATIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS RESULTS Technical/Policy Policy POLICY QUESTION Policy/Technical REFINE QUESTION Technical TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

12. WHAT WE KNOW FROM INTEGRATED ANALYSIS The type of transportation improvements and where they are made affects where jobs and people locate Different tax structures affect where firms locate and where workers live The supply of land affects the price of land, in turn affecting where firms and households locate. Integrated analysis does not dictate policy, it provides information on how policies will likely play out

13. STATEWIDE BRIDGE DEFICIENCY ANALYSIS Nearly 25% of Oregon bridges are beyond their 50 year expected life An increasing number of bridges are being weight restricted Truck detours are disruptive to local communities Weight restrictions impose costs to the freight industry and shippers The question is “when” not “if” the state will invest in Oregon’s aging bridges