1. Expected Progress, Transition Matrices and Targets

2. Expected Progress Has been reported on Raise for English and Maths for a number of years. Transition /Progress Matrices show ‘Expected Progress’ in terms of whole KS2 levels and fine KS2 levels. It is often referred to unofficially as 3 levels of progress Matrices also show proportion of students exceeding expected progress. (4 or more levels of progress)

5. New Expectations of Schools For Maths and English nothing has changed! New ‘Transition Matrices’ for 40 subjects now available on RAISE. Effectively, other subjects now need to consider proportions of students achieving expected progress and exceeding expected progress and not to just base their analysis on Attainment and an overall added value figure.

6. Attainment at End of KS4 UGFEDCBAA* French Attainment at End of KS2 W0X0000000 French1X573773X0 210457969735928174 French3c865107105855219163 French3b2410516726327415450306 French3a511444106857945101626226 French4c792868331,5602,5821,85255516255 French4b1393861,2102,9626,1605,7451,984623164 French4a892921,1253,3238,82911,9365,8862,194634 French5c661365091,8816,76312,79410,6176,1062,276 French5b1229944021,7645,1317,8018,0035,518 French5a0XX4401644211,0011,577 Raise now has 40 subjects which show you the numbers of students achieving each grade from each end of KS2 starting point

7. Attainment at End of KS4 UGFEDCBAA*3 Levels 4Levels French Attainment at End of KS2 W0X0000000 French1X573773X0 84.4%62.5% French210457969735928174 65.1%47.1% French3c865107105855219163 38.0%19.6% 3 levels4Levels French3b2410516726327415450306 47.9%22.4%Level 351.2%24.9% French3a511444106857945101626226 54.6%26.7% French4c792868331,5602,5821,85255516255 32.9%9.7% French4b1393861,2102,9626,1605,7451,984623164 44.0%14.3%Level 451.6%19.9% French4a892921,1253,3238,82911,9365,8862,194634 60.2%25.4% French5c661365091,8816,76312,79410,6176,1062,276 46.2%20.4% French5b1229944021,7645,1317,8018,0035,518 74.2%47.0%Level 559.3%33.5% French5a0XX4401644211,0011,577 93.5%80.4% 55.6%27.3% To help you I have worked out the % for each fine and full KS2 level For all 40 subjects!

8. SISRA Analytics Maths and English were able to use SISRA online to produce full level transition matrices….. But had to use spreadsheets produced from SIMS marksheets to monitor and analyse fine levels Fortunately SISRA Analytics can produce full and fine level progress matrices for any GCSE subject. It will also enable you to monitor your progress update data as a progress matrix.

9. SISRA Analytics will give you the % 3 +, 4+ and 5+ levels. This can then be compared to the national figures on my spreadsheet from Raise Whole LevelNo Grade/U Below G GFEDCBAA*CohortStu Inc Count3+ Count3+ %4+ Count4+ %5+ Count5+ % N000010000010000000 W000000000000000000 1000000000000000000 2000000000000000000 300000100001111000000 40000141611124 1979.2312.528.3 50000121028225 1248104028 0000372639351503264132648

10. Target Setting The trouble with FFT Targets: The mechanism that FFT use to set targets uses national data to give a most likely grade for students to achieve based on their KS2 scores. It does this without recognition to how any ‘groups’ perform. This means that we are left with a target setting system which will not always achieve the result we would hope for.

11. FFT Targets Achieving FFT targets on average overall, does not mean that we will achieve the targets for each of the Key Stage 2 Test level groups! Ultimately we may be setting ourselves and our students up to fail –certainly for maths and English if any of the Key stage level groups is not close to the national ‘expected’ and ‘exceeding expected’ proportions, it could stop Stanborough gaining a ‘Good’ outcome! This is now being extended to other subjects…..

12. Reviewing Targets SISRA Analytics gives us the chance to review targets in light of ‘expected progress’ We could have used Key Stage 2 Test information regarding which students are more likely to achieve expected progress, but when Maths and English undertook this task last year, this was not found to be useful….. It would be better to use your own knowledge of your students and in particular to use the progress update data.

13. Whole LevelSub Level No Grade/U Below G GFEDCBAA*Cohort Stu Inc Count 3+ Count 3+ % 4+ Count 4+ % 5+ Count 5+ % NN00000031004111000000 WW000000000000000000 3+ National 4+ National3+ Diff4 + Diff 1100000000000000000084.38%62.50%-84.4%-62.5% 2200000000000000000065.10%47.14%-65.1%-47.1% 3 3c00000000000000000038.04%19.57%-38.0%-19.6% 3b00000000000000000047.90%22.37%-47.9%-22.4% 3a00001000001100000054.64%26.72%-54.6%-26.7% 4 4c00001200003300000032.95%9.69%-32.9%-9.7% 4b000007400011 436.4000043.96%14.30%-7.6%-14.3% 4a000003500088562.5000060.19%25.40%2.3%-25.4% 5 5c000000510066116.7000046.17%20.37%-29.5%-20.4% 5b0000006111018 1266.715.60074.15%47.02%-7.5%-41.4% 5a0000000100111100000093.51%80.39%6.5%-80.4% 000021223141052492449120055.63%27.25%-6.6%-25.3% This shows the French GCSE Year 11 targets. This illustrates how the FFT targets we have set year 11 would not achieve the desired outcomes!

14. What next? Each Curriculum area will now review the targets in light of Expected Progress and use the progress Update system to raise targets where possible This will not affect the original target, which will be used for results analysis and Performance Appraisal This is good practice anyway!