1. Development of the air pollution forecast system VENUS and its validation (in Japan) Seiji SUGATA ＊, Toshimasa OHARA ( National Institute for Environmental Studies) Jun-ichi KUROKAWA （ Japan Environmental Sanitation Center ） Masamitsu HAYASAKI (Toyama University ） VENUS (Visual atmospheric ENvironment Utility System) 1.Introduction 2.System outline 2.1 User interface 2.2 System core (thanks to prof. Byun) 2.3 Configurations 3. Validation

2. 【 photochemical oxidant 】 ・ rise of concentration (particularly in western Japan) in decades and extension of high concentration area recently ・ possible cause = long-range transport 【 public concern 】 ・ increase of public concern about atmospheric environment (but, next to the radiation dose from food and soil since this year) → NIES has been developing a forecast system that includes the influence of long-range transport and has horizontal resolution for urban scale pollutions Needs for air pollution forecast system in Japan 【 PM 2.5 】 ・ air quality standard for PM2.5 was enacted in 2009 (only SPM before that since 1973) 35ug/day 15ug/year 【 local governmental officers 】 ・ Need information to issue a warning (difficult with increasing influence of long-range transport)

3. Public release May.2010 Apr. 2008 Jun. 2009 May.2010 Jun. 2009 East Asia Japan Click area name to see forecast in the area VENUS user interface: top page Six areas in Japan

4. Species for public is now photochemic al Ox and NO2. Sulfate aerosol in planning. ↑ Can choose hourly on the day and the next Ox NO2 VENUS user interface: Each area page ↑ animation display ↑ download ↑ simultaneous display for one day

5. VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification - combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ

6. VENUS Core: Coupling of RAMS ＋ CMAQ Idea: Prof. Itsushi UNO and prof. Daewon Byun in mid 1990s Interface (MCIP for RAMS) development: since 1999 I stayed EPA/NERL for 1 year (1998-99) to develop it with supervised by Daewon MCIP for RAMS has been developed: up to RAMS 4.4 and CMAQ 4.4 but no update recently VENUS development: since 2004 and VENUS development history Jointly developed by ・ Ministry of the Environment ・ Central Res. Inst. of Electric Power Industry ・ local government environ. institutes Assisted by ・ Fujitsu FIP corporation ・ Japan Weather Association internal use/test Public open 2008 for Asia-Japan-greater Tokyo area 2009 other 2 areas 2010 other 3 areas

7. VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification - combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ - nudging with GPV weather forecast data by Japan Met. Agency - Emissions: EAGRID (in Japan) and REAS （ others in Asia ）

8. wind, temp., pres., water vapor, precipitation, cloud water, soil water,,, advection, diffusion, radiation, surface process, large scale condensation, cumulus convection,,,, advection, diffusion, cumulus convection, gaseous/aqueous reactions, aerosol reaction, dry/wet depositions,, JMA weather forecast data wind, temp., humid. Topography, Surface data Emission data EAGRID & REAS RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling system) （ Colorado State Univ. ） CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system) (U.S.A. EPA) Flowchart of VENUS Concentration deposition Input (everyday) Figures Visualization VENUS HP Input (fixed) Input(month, weekday/end) Output （ data ） Output (figures) MCIP for RAMS

9. Configurations for RAMS and CMAQ in VENUS

10. VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification - combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ - 3 level nesting to cover East Asia region into urban areas in Japan East Asia 100km ⇔ Japan 25km ⇔ each local area 5km - nudging with GPV weather forecast data by Japan Met. Agency - Emissions: EAGRID (in Japan) and REAS （ others in Asia ）

11. Colors in maps=NOx emission Dots=air pollution monitoring stations Tokyo Fukushima Tsukuba 100km mesh25km mesh 3 level nested domain: Asia (100km) – Japan (25km) – Each area (5km)

12. VENUS(Visual atmospheric Environment Utility System) Features and Specification - combination of Met. model RAMS ＋ air quality model CMAQ - hourly concentration of Ox and NO2 on the day and the next day update every 9 o’clock in the morning (local time) - 3 level nesting to cover East Asia region into urban areas in Japan East Asia 100km ⇔ Japan 25km ⇔ each local area 5km - nudging with GPV weather forecast data by Japan Met. Agency - Emissions: EAGRID (in Japan) and REAS （ others in Asia ） - on NIES supercomputer system (scalar system)

13. JMA/GPV data (84 hours forecast) <Local time> 9:0020:00 9:00 Calculated at night 2 day forecast(48h) GPV data (weather forecast) acquisition 15:00 JMA calculation Schedule 3:00 Day 0Day 1Day -1 Update HP

14. Validation of VENUS comparison of Ox in May and Aug. 2009 between the result of VENUS and the observation data at air pollution monitoring stations Comparison is made for the following three cases for four local domains in Japan Japan25km meshLocal 5km mesh May 2009○× Aug. 2009○○

15. Colors in map=NOx emission Dots=air pollution monitoring stations Monitoring time for NO,NO2,Ox > 90% NO/NOx ≦ 0.2 Four Domains For validation

16. Comparison of horizontal distribution For high Ox event from 8 th to 12 th in May 2009 (Left ： observation, Right: VENUS) 11 10 9 8/May

17. Ox concentration on May2009 Thick line ： obs. Thin line ： simulation （ 25km ） Daytime peaks are not so bad But low conc. at nights terrible Potential ozone （ O3+NO2 ）

18. Black:Correlation coefficient Red: NMB （ obs. - cal. ） Blue: NME Local domain (5km ) Aug. 2009 Japan domain (25km ) Aug. 2009Japan domain (25km ) May 2009 west 30 prefectures east Skill scores for prefecture mean hourly Ox between obs. and VENUS

19. Japan domain (25km ) May 2009Japan domain (25km ) Aug. 2009 Local domain (5km ) Aug. 2009 Skill scores for prefecture daily 95 percentile Ox between obs. and VENUS Black:Correlation coefficient Red: NMB （ obs. - cal. ） Blue: NME west 30 prefectures east

20. Summary ・ NIES and colleagues developed air pollution forecast system, VENUS. ・ validation for Ox so so reproducibility for daytime high concentration poor for low concentration at night Next work ・ All Japan one domain with 5km ・ Sulfate aerosol also public Future works ・ Models update （ RAMS4.4+CMAQ4.4→WRF+CMAQ? ） ・ emission update etc.

21. Thank you for your attention

24. Parameters Domain １ Domain ２ Domain ３ Horiz. resolution100km25km5km Horizontal grid numbers 66x5570x70 42x52 （関東、関 西） 72x107 （中部） 77x77 （九州） 67x117 （東北） 72x72 （中国四国） Vertical thickness150-1800m 33-1800m Vertical layer number 21 27 Vertical expantion12 Maximum time step60s15s4s

25. http://www-gis.nies.go.jp/ Environmental GIS HP