2. Introduction to Statistics for the Social Sciences SBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200 Lecture Section 001, Fall 2015 Room 150 Harvill Building 10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

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4. Show of hands: How many people would like to add this class? Please fill this out

5. Everyone will want to be enrolled in one of the lab sessions Labs start Next week

6. Announcements Extra credit: design a creative way to teach some concept in the course. Computer animation Video animation Should be animated and include both 1. an explanation of the concept being taught and 2. an opportunity for the viewer to quiz themselves on the material

7. Start by reading Please read: Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D)

8. Textbooks 1.Primary Text: Introductory Statistics. OpenStax College http://cnx.org/content/col11562/latest/ E.copies are available free online Hard copies are available bookstore 2.Selected readings from Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D) 100 Questions (and Answers) About Research Methods. Neil J Salkind (2012). The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. S Plous (1993).

9. Course website http://courses.eller.arizona.edu/mgmt/delaney/ Announcements Syllabus Link to D2L Grades Some online homework assignments

10. Name Major email phone #

11. Why study stats? Let’s start with four short demonstrations

12. Demonstration 1: A Memory Test Try to remember these word lists for a recall test Important: Try not to mix up the lists!!

13. Why does that work?

14. Count how many times the ball is passed by the team in the white shirts (not the black shirts – just the white) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4&watch_response Demonstration 2: A Counting Test

16. Why does that work?

17. Demonstration 3: A Test of Disambiguation

18. Please close your eyes Right half of room

19. Really !

20. . This is a rat

21. Please close your eyes Left half of room

22. Really !

23. . This is a man

24. Please open your eyes Everyone

26. . What is this a picture of?

27. . This is a man This is a rat

28. . Expectations affect our perceptions of the world. Our knowledge affects our perceptions of the world. Everyday our “biases” affect how we see the world and make decisions. New knowledge can reshape what we see.

29. Demonstration 4: Another Test of Disambiguation New knowledge can reshape what we see.

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42. Demonstration 1: Our prior knowledge will influence our memories – inserting what was never there Demonstration 2: Our interests will influence what we see – making invisible what is right in front of us Demonstration 4: Our current environment will influence what we see – making images meaningful Demonstration 3: Our recent experiences will influence what we see – making one interpretation much more likely

43. Not just “tricks”, but demonstrations that show even the most basic interpretations of what we perceive and remember in the physical world is malleable and vulnerable. How we interpret social interactions and business problems are similarly vulnerable to bias. Careful measurement helps us account for these biases.

44. Every day we disambiguate what we see, remember, interpret and understand. Why study stats? Biases can impede or improve our decision making. (We want to minimize “bad biases” while maximizing “good biases” to our decision making) It is important to be aware of our own vulnerability to biases and illusions in social settings and in even the most basic daily experiences. Every time we see, or remember, or understand a problem we are vulnerable to biases.

45. * From Issues in Assessing Conceptual Understanding in Probability and Statistics By Clifford Konold, University of Massachusetts. Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.1 (1995) Statistics and research methods allow us to try to “take into account” our natural tendencies for specific kinds of biases “When presented new information, we have no other option than to relate it to what we already know – there is no blank space in our minds within which new information can be stored so as not to “contaminate” it with existing information” - Clifford Konold, Scientific Reasoning Research Institute, University of Massachusetts*

46. Why study stats? POWER!! Be able to defend that your methods are better than others – lead to advancement

47. Why study stats? Cake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBjNzJEWpCICops: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5m_g72KaKg

48. Why study statistics? Literacy in language of statistics Study of stats provides opportunity for improving your computer literacy and management of databases and technical literacy Improvement of own critical thinking (own life-long cognitive development) Data management Too much??! - Stats can help you simplify Too little ??!? – Stats can help you fill in the blanks (smartly) Career Advancement (how helpful you are to others)

49. What is this course for? » Exploring the assumptions and principles underlying experimental methodologies and findings » Practice critical evaluation of data and claims both in the popular media and in scientific publications Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences » Practice completing calculations and applying the solutions to applied situations in daily life and in scientific inquiry » Improve skills for using data to inform our daily decisions and to avoid problems that arise from biases and illusions.

50. How will we do it? » Lectures and reading » In-class assignments Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences » Homework assignments » Laboratory research and projects

51. Instructor:Suzanne Delaney, Ph.D. Office:405 “N” McClelland Hall Phone:621-2045 Email:delaney@u.arizona.edu Office hours:2:00 – 3:30 Monday and Wednesdays and by appointment Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences

52. Grading » Four multiple choice exams - 400 points » Homework assignments - 20 points (no assignments will be dropped) Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences » Short writing assignments - 20 points (lowest 3 will be dropped) » Laboratory activities - 60 points

53. Short Writing Assignments Regular short writing assignments most will be in-class some of these reflect in-class activities and interactions and it will not be possible to make them up worth a total of 20 points - writing form is available online

54. . Short Writing Assignment Form

55. Homework Assignments Regular homework assignments will be assigned in class. Some assignments will be from the textbooks, while others will be reports of other activities. Homework assignments will be worth a total of 20 points.

56. Writing Assignments and Homeworks are meant to: 1)Provide opportunities to apply concepts in the class to other contexts to help generate semantically rich representations of the material 2) discuss applications of class concepts with others in the class 3) think critically and make distinctions between related concepts related concepts 4) exploit our knowledge of elaborative encoding to maximize test performance. to maximize test performance.

57. Exams Exams Four exams - 100 points each Four exams - 100 points each Multiple choice Multiple choice Make-ups only in cases of emergency Make-ups only in cases of emergency All exams will be cumulative All exams will be cumulative

58. Exams are designed to: 2)encourage application of concepts to contextually rich situations 1) encourage formation of factual knowledge that can be called upon when integrating important concepts 3) encourage critical thinking and highlight distinctions between related concepts distinctions between related concepts

59. Evaluation and assignment of grades 4. Exams (400 points) 1. Short writing assignments (20 points) 2. Homework (20 points) 3. Labs (60 points)

60. 500 possible points Assignment of grades 450 - 500 = 90% = A 400 - 449 = 80% = B 350 - 399 = 70% = C 300 - 349 = 60% = D Below 299 = E

61. Assigned readings Please note additional reading assignments will be assigned in class

62. In nearly every class we will use clickers to: answer questions in class and participate in answer questions in class and participate in interactive class demonstrations interactive class demonstrations We’ll register them on our webpage- then use ‘em! Complete this in the next two weeks and receive extra credit! (By September 7 th ) student.turningtechnologies.com (Please note there is no “www”)

63. Register your clicker student.turningtechnologies.com (Please note there is no “www”) Type in your netID (This is just your email username) Type in your clicker number. It is called a “Device ID” and is found on the back of your clicker Device ID Type in your official first and last name as it would appear on the class roster

64. Remember bring your writing assignment forms notebook and clickers to each lecture

65. Start by reading Please read: Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D)

66. Remember to Register clicker Remember, start with: Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D)