1. A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK MELVIN BROWN CLAUDIA CENTAZZO JOGT Meeting, London, 5 June 2008

2. 2 Presentation outline Presentation of our outline for the model Presentation of the way forward Hear about the users requirements Discuss the way of engagement and the follow-up mechanism

3. 3 Smith Institute – who are we? The Smith Institute is a not-for-profit organisation We solve problems using mathematical modelling We work in a range of industrial sectors including energy and we have previous experience of working with Government and regulatory bodies as well as a wide variety of companies We have been commissioned by Ofgem to conduct a feasibility study on an independent gas flow model for the NTS The model is being presented today as a development & desktop implementation opportunity for NTS users

4. 4 Motivation - interactions of user supply, demand & NTS capability St. Fergus Teesside Easingt on Rough Theddlethorpe Bacton Barrow Burton Point user A user D user C user B demand NTS configuration Users’ perspective: >interactions through NG >overheads & time >restricting user ability to explore/understand NTS capability >NTS capability under utilised => Model directed towards needs of users and easily accessible to them

5. 5 Gas flow model - aims Provide users with: > improved understanding of NTS capability and its technical capacity >desktop interaction with constraints & opportunities >a transparent and easy system to use In particular: >to identify entry capacity options N months in the future for a range of demand scenarios

6. 6 Gas flow model - advantages Key features of the proposed model >uses NTS data Up-to-date - present and planned range of demand scenarios >easy for you to use web-based PC interface >fast feasibility of entry capacity options returned in ~ minutes >validated against NG NTS data part of support & maintenance >User based forum for interaction with NTS & NG Alternative >sophisticated network software (e.g. SynerGEE, FALCON) >detailed system knowledge & high overheads >correspondence without NTS interaction

7. 7 Gas flow model – users’ view User k For each demand scenario: NTS constraints violated revise to ‘nearby’ supply vector

8. 8 Gas flow model – behind the scenes Explore NTS capability NTS data & constraints Users: supply & demand vectors NG NG: TYS etc users

9. 9 Gas flow model - in practice Secure model & web server System admin, testing & maintenance Users – model interaction Model development testing & release NTS data NG Users, NG, others? User queries and responses NTS data updates

10. 10 Development of the follow-on process Driven by users Phase 1: steady state entry and exit capacities, including line-pack off-take/supply for a range of demand scenarios; NG TYS as a starting point Phase 2: dynamic - flexibility to model the variation of demand during the day (hourly) Phase 3: modelling costs of new capacities, fuel usage and effects of new entry/exit points – forecasting tool

11. 11 Gas flow model – development cycle For each phase: >Requirements User, data, technical, security, maintenance >Design and implementation >Testing – including users >Release >Maintenance

12. 12 Development of follow-on process – Phase 1 We are here to explore the funding options for Phase 1 with the gas industry as starting point. Phase 1 (steady state model) will involve: a)development of model, b)implementation and testing in IT system, c)service delivery to users desktops (plus maintenance and users support) We have held initial discussions with a commercial organisation (Tessella, www.tessella.com) to partner on b) and c)www.tessella.com Cost: ~ £250-300k Time scale: ~10 months from commitment of funds from the industry Further: licence arrangements for users

13. 13 Open discussion We welcome your views …

14. 14 Contact details Melvin.Brown@smithinst.co.uk Claudia.Centazzo@smithinst.co.uk >07917 697914 www.smithinst.co.uk