1. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 1 2007 EMME Users Conference 12 October, 2007 Modelling Needs of Peel Region in the Context of the Emerging Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area By: Murray McLeod, P. Eng. Manager of Transportation Planning, Peel Region, Ontario, Canada

2. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 2 Purpose Transportation Challenges in Peel Use of EMME Modelling to Measure Transportation Performance Use of 3D Graphics to Communicate Value of Peel Transportation Solutions (a Work in Progress)

3. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 3 Caledon Mississauga Brampton Peel’s Strategic Location Hamilton Halton Toronto York Durham Peel

4. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 4 Provincial Policy 2005 : Places to Grow (PTG), A Blueprint for Development

5. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 5 PTG Forecasts Rapid Population Growth in Suburban 905 Areas Source: 1971-2006 Statistics Canada 2011-2031 Places to Grow Population ( in Millions) Population ( in Millions) Peel York Durham Halton Hamilton 905 Area (Peel, York, Durham, Halton, and Hamilton) 416 Area (Toronto) 1988

6. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 6 GO Rail and Bus Service: A Radial Network Source: Peel Long Range Transportation Plan Report – September 2005

7. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 7 Provincial MoveOntario 2020 Announcement, June 2007

8. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 8 Peel’s Encouragement of Sustainable Transportation in the Future Daily Trips (millions) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Auto Passenger Walk & Cycle Transit Auto Driver Sustainable Travel Modes 70% Current Trend Aggressive Transit/TDM 30% Current Trend 1.7 cars/household

9. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 9 Peel (GTHA) Transit Challenges Full daily GO Rail service (e.g. Milton, Georgetown) New GO Rail service (Bolton) New express trains (e.g. Brampton) Add circumferential services (GO Bus and GO Rail) Enhance local transit network

10. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 10 Trip Generation WorkOther Trip Distribution WorkOther Modal Split Trip Assignment School Apply Growth Factors Peak Hour Factors Airport Apply Growth Factors Peel Uses a 4-Stage Transportation Forecasting Model (EMME)

11. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 11 Model Application: Arterial Extension of Highway 427 Origin-Destination plot (Select-Link Analysis)

12. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 12 Model Application: 2/3 of Peak Hour Travel on Peel Arterials will be Congested

13. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 13 Peel (GTHA) Highway/Road Challenges Extend key freeways (410, 427) Selective Widening (e.g. 401 west of 410) New Freeways (e.g. GTA West Corridor) Roads to support new development and transit Expansion to support inter-regional travel

14. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference Goods Movement in Peel (Major Freight Hub for Southern Ontario) Peel Region

15. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 15 Peel’s Industrial Economy: Freight Centres Around the Pearson Airport Legend Service Facility Yard Warehouse Intermodal Terminal Highway Network Canadian Cities US Cities

16. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 16 Canada-US Trade is Dominated by Trucks on Hwy 401 and QEW (crossing Peel)

17. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 17 Ontario/Quebec Trade Corridor Announcement and MOU, July 2007

18. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 18 Peel/GTHA Challenges for Goods Movement Peel/Private Sector Goods Movement Planning Partnership Strategic Goods Movement Plan for Peel Improvements to NAFTA Corridors Improvements to Border Crossings Pursue Multi-Modal Gateway Solutions

19. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 19 Transportation Performance as a Driver of Transportation Solutions Transportation issues in Peel Assessing Peel/GTHA for transportation performance Use of 3D graphics to communicate value of Peel transportation solutions (interested in your views)

20. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 20 Transportation Performance Measurement Framework (Passengers & Goods) Performance Measures –Time/speed –Network connectivity redundancy –Choice/mode –Reliability –Service Quality –Safety –Air emissions Economic Social/Quality of Life Environment Valuation

21. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 21 Highway 401 AADT Growth (1982, 1987, 1989, 1992) Oakville Oshawa

22. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 22 Speed/Flow Performance of Highway 401 Westbound section from Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995) MTO Compass System Data

23. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 23 Time Travelled (min) Distance Travelled (km) AM Peak Congestion Doubles Travel Time on Highway 401 Westbound Collectors, Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995)

24. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 24 Speed/Volume Performance of a Freeway Lane Highway Capacity Manual, 1985

25. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 25 Calgary Congestion Study Woudsma, 2006

26. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 26 Woudsma, 2006 Congestion in Calgary over time

27. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 27 Woudsma, 2006 Morning Peak Congestion Influence Surface

28. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 28 2001 Peel Population by Traffic Zone

29. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 29 2001 Peel Population

30. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 30 2001 GTA Population

31. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 31 Projected 2031 GTA Employment (PTG) Soberman Report, Nov 2006

32. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 32 Employment Change 2001 to 2031

33. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 33 Density of Transit Use in 2001 (TTS) Soberman Report, Nov 2006

34. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 34 GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)

35. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 35 GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time) Existing GO Rail Service

36. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 36 GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time) Express GO Rail Service from Bramalea Station Existing GO Rail Service Plus a New Bolton Station

37. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 37 AM Peak Hour Freeflow Road Network Travel Time (to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

38. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 38 AM Peak Hour Congested Road Network Travel Time (to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

39. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 39 AM Peak Hour Travel Time (to Highway 401 at Yonge St.) Free flow Road Network Congested Road Network

40. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 40 Other 3D Mapping Applications –Accessibility to Jobs –Impact of Flow Management of Highways –Impact of HOV Lanes –Impact of Other TDM Measures –Impact of Tolls

41. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 41 Final Thoughts EMME is a tool to measure the impacts of future transportation improvements ARCGIS is a tool to visualize the impacts of future transportation improvements ARCGIS helps communicate the value of transportation improvements (for transportation decision-makers, the public, politicians and senior funding agencies)

42. 21 st Annual International EMME Users Conference 42 Special thanks to: ESRI Canada: Alex Miller Matt English Susan Enyedy-Goldner Questions?? Demonstration