1. Food Security in an Insecure World: Potential Outcomes of Global Climate Change for US Food Assistance Institutions
Ann Myatt James
Penn State University
Dawn Drake
University of Tennessee

2. Hunger remains a problem in the US Why is there hunger?
No root cause
Often emerges as a problem of individuals/households who lack access to financial resources
To whom do hungry people turn?
Government and non-government assistance programs
But…cash resources may be becoming increasingly important
…for both individuals and institutions
What does global climate change have to do with hunger and institutions?

3. US Food Security and Hunger
Brief history
Key Concepts:
Hunger: The uneasy or painful sensation resulting from a prolonged, involuntary lack of access to food (Bickel et al., 2000; Nord et al., 2007)
Food Security: Individuals who are unable to obtain “physical and economic access to enough food to lead a healthy and active life” (Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, 1999).
Current Conversations in US
Occurring within 2 groups
Anti-Hunger
Community Food Security

4. Anti-Hunger: Social policy, economics, sociology, health sciences
Hunger seen as a problem of individuals/households
Individuals and households need to access and obtain food resources
Talk about individual/household diets, cooking abilities, and other risk factors
Discussions are home-centered & people-centered; do not think about changes occurring globally & in the natural environment

5. Community Food Security:
Community of activists, researchers, and educators representing urban food interests, farmland preservation, sustainable agriculture, rural development (and more)
Hunger seen as problem of communities
Talk about long-term solutions, food access, self- production, local/regional food systems, empowering community members
Discussions use “whole systems” thinking; think about social and ecological systems
BUT conversation are limited to community scale NOT within a global environmental context

6. Global-Local Linkages

7. Case Study: Dairy Products
It is important to understand how global climate change can impact US food supplies. One example of this can be seen in the dairy industry. Recent preliminary research has indicated that warmer and wetter future climates could lead to decreased production for grazing Holsteins

8. The Economics of Mastitis and High Somatic Cell Count
Costs of treatment, culling, and lost milk
Decreased production and components (casein, lactose, calcium, starter enzymes)
Shorter shelf life, strange tastes, discoloring
$1.7 billion per year in United States
$1 in prevention increases production by $5
Mastitis is the most costly disease in US dairy farming and therefore it is important to study it to limit costs

9. Short-run vs. Long-run Costs of Global Climate Change in the US Dairy Industry
In the short-run, farmers absorb most of the costs of increased SCC
In the long-run, however, costs will be felt by both the farmer and the consumer
The consumer is rarely affected in the short run b/c milk buyers only increase prices to accommodate increased on farm costs when mandated by Federal Milk Marketing Orders

10. Short-run Costs to Farmer
Discarded milk
Lost marketability
Premature culling
Lack of access to incentives provided by milk buyers
In the case of discarded milk the farmer is feeding and maintaining dairy cows that are not producing income. If the mastitis becomes chronic, production will decrease as portions of the udder become walled off with scar tissue and bacterial pockets.
High SCC milk exhibits strange tastes and decreased shelf life in fluid milk, and lack of components necessary for cheese and yogurt production. Antibiotic tainted milk cannot be sold.
Long-term infections and decreased production will result in premature culling and costs of introducing new herd members
Producers who can consistently provide low SCC milk may be offered incentives of .10 to .50 per hundreweight

11. Two Possible Solutions
Long-run Costs to Farmers
Decreased farm profits
Two Possible Solutions
Decreased farm profits from decreased take home profits (as the costs of not only milk production, but also feed and fuel increases) will result in personal food crises for the operator’s family
Far View Farmstead (Grain farming) - $1 a gallon vs. Klein Farms (Niche production - Organics/raw milk products) - $4 a gallon
vs.

12. Long-run Costs to Consumers
Increasing costs for milk and dairy products
Milk buyers pay higher premiums to farmers
Decreasing supply
Boutique products
Milk buyers may pay higher premiums to farmers to try to keep them in the industry
Decreasing supply can come from farmers switching to niche production and others leaving the industry altogether
Niche production will lead to a portion of milk that would have been turned into affordable milk products to being turned into boutique products such as organic and raw milk (which is not accessible to the low income consumer)

13. Potential Institutional Impacts
Governmental Programs
Increasing Costs:
For basic dietary necessities
Entitlement programs (FSP and school breakfast/lunch) adjusted annually for inflation
Non-entitlement programs (WIC), not necessarily adjusted for inflation but price increases affect costs of food
Due to increased rates of participation
Assuming current/historical US wage trends
Assuming current/historical wage trends means that research on US labor wages show that in many sectors, particularly for the lowest income groups, wages in the US have been actually stagnating or declining since the 1970s. If we assume such trends will continue, long-term food price increases should result in increasing participation rates in governmental programs, particularly entitlement programs since individuals are guaranteed access to them if they meet participation requirements.

14. Non-Governmental Programs
Increasing Costs:
For basic dietary necessities:
Increasing costs of production often results in fewer federally donated agricultural surpluses
Declines in food donations as food processors work to increase manufacturing efficiencies
Declines in food donations as retail outlets increase sales of damaged or unwanted products
May cause programs to have to purchase foodstuffs at increased, retail prices
Due to increased rates of participation
Assuming current/historical US wage trends

15. Future Research What happens when we feed cars instead of cows?
Alternative dairy products?
What can we learn from the experiences of the energy sector?
What are the short-term and long-term effects of rising food prices on US food assistance institutions?
In altering the conditions in which our food production takes place, changing local scale climatic conditions afforded by processes of global climate change may then be anticipated to provide for costlier food resources in the long-term. Recent research, advocacy, and education has emphasized the effects of global climate change on the lives of individuals, households, and communities, including (but not limited to) issues of hunger and food security ( However, such discussions often emerge from individuals interested first in problems of global climate change. Researchers, advocates, and educators working with, and on behalf of, lower income populations in the Global North have yet to consider the effects afforded by changing global environmental conditions.
In order to advance such topics of conversation to those individuals whose primary interest may not be global climate change, our paper examined how global-scale environmental processes may exacerbate problems of food insecurity and hunger within the United States and work to place additional pressure on the institutions which work strive to alleviate these problems. While this paper works to provide for an introduction to these conversations, much future research will need to be accomplished this includes…
For bullet #4:
We talk about the potential implications for institutions, since only limited research exists regarding short-term implications for such programs and little, to no research examines the effect of long-term price increases on such institutions. Future research will need to examine these effects more carefully.