1. FLSWM 2040 Traffic Projection Hongbo Chi

2. Introduction FLSWM provides travel forecasting over the entire state reflecting long range demographic and socioeconomic growth. It requires additional procedure to validate the model according to the observed traffic count data.

3. Methodology Framework Base Year Scenario Year 2040 Scenario OD Matrix Estimation Growth Factor Method Adjusted 2040 OD Matrix Adjusted 2040 traffic volume

4. The Applications Added to FLSWM

5. OD Matrix Estimation Cube Analyst 2 is used Start Highway Assignment Extract ICP files OD Estimation Obj End Update OD matrix Convergent A : the route choice probability matrix (ICP files). X : the OD matrix to be estimated. b : the observed traffic count vector. X 0 : the initial OD matrix. F,G : weighting factors.

6. OD Matrix Estimation Result ITR RMSE% for Different Volume Ranges Over all [20000,Inf][10000,20000][5000,10000][0,5000] 135.10%25.00%35.20%36.00%77.70% 227.20%19.50%26.30%29.40%67.90% 324.50%17.50%23.50%27.40%61.20% 422.10%15.80%21.00%25.60%54.70% 520.20%14.60%19.20%23.90%48.20% 618.80%13.40%17.90%22.90%43.40%

7. Growth Factor Method A simple method to calibrate the future year OD matrix: OD 40calibrated = OD 05calibrated +( OD 40 - OD 05 )

8. Model setting The model selection for base year scenario The model selection for 2040 scenario

9. Requirement for Computer The recommended configuration for computer – CPU: Intel (R), 2 Quad CPU 2.4 GHZ – Memory: 8 GB memory The model running time – Base year: 70 hours – Year 2040: 2 hours