1. Production Economics of Allanblackia If Allanblackia is a cash cow? - How big is the cow - How much cash does the cow give you

2. What are our assumptions? - seedlings/cuttings are available - farm-gate price is $0.15 per kilo of seeds - one village/community will produce viable quantity - cuttings take 4 years to fruit - seedlings take 12 years to fruit - adequate labour for processing - there will be sufficient males in the landscape - average yield of 30 fruit per tree - three AB fruit give 1 kg of seeds - no negative aspects of AB (alternate pest host) - no significant input costs (pests, fertiliser) - no punitive taxes or barriers - no restrictive policies

3. Values of average total seed weight per fruit per tree are shown for 57 trees, with measurements based on 40 fruit per tree. Values varied widely between trees, and differences were statistically significant. Source: ICRAF Cameroon 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Tree Average total seed weight per fruit per tree (g) Tree-to-tree variation in seed weight per fruit for A. floribunda trees sampled at the Yalpenda site, Cameroon 3 fruit = 1 kg seeds 4 fruit = 1kg seeds 5 fruit = 1kg seeds

4. Years to fruitSize of treeMultiplication rate per year Seeds10-1220-30m5000 Rooted cuttings - Tree stump 3-45-8m200 Rooted cuttings - Mother block 3-45-8m4000 Marcots1-24-6m20 Grafts2-33-4m100

5. The farm or “production system”, with : Livestock raising systems Uncultivated lands Tools, machines, buildings and cash flows Workforce and labour organisation during the year Transformation systems Cropping systems The farm level and the system approach

6. The cultivated plot and the system approach Perennial crops and the case of cacao tree Dynamic systems Intercropping and complex associations Cacao trees Shade / Fruits Shade / Timber /Fruits … Time

7. Olympe and the cropping system level Variables definitions (Information database) Cropping lnd livestock raising systems All taxes and units

8. Olympe : the farm level (allocation of surfaces) All taxes and units STEP 1 Definitions for UNITS and TAXES Variables definitions (Information database) STEP 2 Definitions for - NAMES of VARIABLES - UNIT PRICES PER type of INCOME and COST. - AVAILABLE WORKING PERIODS during the year Cropping and livestock raising systems STEP 3 Definitions for - cycles, - q/ha - NECESARY working time FARM : C & L systems and areas STEP 4 - cropping S, - livestock S - areas

9. The region level and the system approach Farming systems A A A B B

10. Olympe functions : external effects Variables definitions (Information database) Cropping and livestock raising systems All taxes and units FARM : C & L systems and areas Typologies REGION : Farm types Global analysis Prices and yields variations

13. Clove cultivation What are existing enterprises and alternatives to AB

14. Eucalyptus over tea

15. Bananas and maize

16. Black peppers and gliricidia

22. Economies of scale

24. No. trees per ha Survival %Number surviving Income per tree ($) Total income per ha ($) Year 16257546900 Year 24699042200 Year 34229540000 Year 44001004000.40160 Year 54001004000.60240 Year 64001004000.85340 Year 74001004001.00400 Year 84001004001.00400 Year 94001004001.00400 Year 104001004001.00400

25. No. trees per ha Survival %Number surviving Income per tree ($) Total income per ha ($) Year 1625754690.30$141 Year 2469904220.30$126 Year 3422954000.30$120 Year 44001004000.40160 Year 54001004000.60240 Year 64001004000.85340 Year 74001004001.00400 Year 84001004001.00400 Year 94001004001.00400 Year 104001004001.00400 If you want 10 million trees at year 4 then plant 15.6 million in year 1 (= 25,000 ha equivalents) (but may be spread over 200,000 ha and 80,000 households) Cost of establishment Year 1 = $3,510,000 Year 2 = $3,160,000 Year 3 = $3,000,000 Total = $9,670,000 To generate a 40,000 t oil per annum business = $30 million per annum

26. Village Nurseries - Key to success of the venture, not well coordinated at present - Need technical, financial and social aspects (partnership, joint accountability) - Need different approaches (community, individual, associations) - Need to document germplasm being used (origin, type, quantity) - Need to maintain register of nurseries and activities - Need to be clear on buy-back, research involvement, etc - Need awareness raising of what use seedlings for (e.g. grafting)

27. Nursery business

28. Village Nurseries

29. Vegetative Propagation $10 is compensation not income

32. Risks versus Returns lowmediumhigh low * * medium* high R I S K S RETURNS