1. Kimberley Zuill 21 September 2015 HAW 2015 Peak Season Briefing - BTA 1.2014 Hurricane Season review 2.2015 Seasonal Forecast & why & how is it lining up? 3.Review of BWS definitions of Watches & Warnings 4.Review of how BWS communications 5.New BWS products 6.Real-world BWS challenges in 2014  - managing crisis beforehand… and being flexible during !

2. THE 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BDA “Below Average” (seasonal numbers) However, doubt that anyone will argue with my next statement… For Bermuda … it was a very active hurricane season!

3. 2014 Hurricane Season - Bermuda 4 (possibly 5) systems affected Bermuda Storm Name Month/Dates Watch/Warning Issued for Bermuda Maximum Wind Speed at LF Wade Maximum Wind on/near Island Significant Surge, Swell, Rainfall, Flooding &/or Damage CPA & other notes Verification Hurricane Cristobal August 25 th -28 th Tropical Storm Watch issued 1630hrs 25 th, ended 1130hrs 28 th 30g39 knots on the 28 th (late am into early pm) 39 knots (instantaneous) on the Causeway & 31g50 knots at Comms Pt, Dockyard, on the 28 th Some enhanced surf along South Shore. Approx. 245nm to the north- northwest at 6am on 28 th …. TS Watch was on borderline of verification, 30kt on Island, possible sustained 34kt in marine area (but no obs) Hurricane Edouard September 15 th - 17 th Small craft warning issued (for 9ft or more swells) at 0530hrs on 15 th for Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Ended 1130hrs on 17 th N/A Long period (14- 15sec) swells peaking at around 9-10ft towards the east on the 16 th …. Approx. 380nm to the east at 12noon on 16 th. N.B. Hurricane Hunters… Track well forecast, intensity underplayed in initial stages… Possible Sub- tropical depression? September 28 th - 29 th Small craft warning and thunderstorm advisory 25g34 knots (overnight) 31 knots (instantaneous) on the Causeway & 28g36knots at Comms Pt Around 2.5 inches of rainfall for whole event..waterspouts off East End on morning of 29 th. Models were consistently poor with low location and wind forecast Tropical Storm/*Hurricane Fay October 11 th -12 th Tropical Storm Watch issued 1130hrs on 10 th, with additional Hurricane Watch issued at 1630hrs on 11 th. Hurricane Watch was dropped at 6am on 12 th and the Tropical Storm Warning was dropped at noon on the same day. 53g71 knots at 7.34am local 80 knots on Causeway and 102 knots at Harbour Radio.. Around 2 inches. Extensive damage to trees (felled) & utility poles (downed) as well as some structural (roof) damage. Radar imagery suggested eye centre passed just to southeast of the Island (a few miles).... Forecast was rather poor with Fay expected to move away northeast quicker than it did.. Hurricane Gonzalo October 17 th -18 th Hurricane Watch issued 2330hrs on 14 th, then superseded by a Hurricane Warning at 1630hrs on 15 th. Hurricane Warning was dropped to a Tropical Storm Warning at 0530hrs…. 53.9g73.1 knots at 7.14pm local before instrument failure. 109kt (instant) at Harbour Radio in initial easterly winds before anemometer failure… Huge swells were observed breaking on outer reefs, OPC analysed up to 44ft in our area. Minimal surge (and low lying area flooding) due to low tide as eye… CPA was a direct hit with the eye (approx. 30 miles wide) moving over the whole Island 9.30-10.15pm… Forecast was very good, as it was with Fabian. Forecast confidence enabled early hurricane watch issuance…

4. ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015 Named Storms (12.0, 15.7) Hurricanes (6.0, 7.5) Major Hurricanes (3.0, 3.8) Climatology (1981-2010, 2002-2011) Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray, 2015) Last year’s Tally 8 6 2 2014 Atlantic Season - NOAA/CPC – was correctly forecast to be below average HOWEVER, It only takes one storm to make it an active season for us! Forecast Parameter 7 3 1 Issue Date 9 Apr 2015 WHY?? is it expected to be less active? Cooler SST in the main development region (MDR) closer to Africa & a strengthening El Nino (creates more shear in the tropical Atlantic, hindering development. 90% chance El Nino will continue through summer 2015 (NOAA CPC) Fly in ointment: TRACK FORECASTING – traditionally what does form, follows the edge of the BDA-Azores high. NHC experts mention the increase of ‘Hurricane Alley/ East Coast/ BDA to Canadian Maritimes’ off record as an unofficial pattern observation. Same problem as last year – expect to have systems develop near us & possibly spin up quick To date Mid-Sept 8 2 1

5. Historical Record October Secondary peak Fay & Gonzalo 2014

6. Past strong El Nino seasons - 1997 4/8 systems near BDA!! One subtropical System beginning Of June See re-curvature! Yet, below average Season.

7. Past strong El Nino seasons - 1987 EMILY!!!!! See re-curvature! “below average” Season with Respect to Number and Intensity of systems

8. Past strong El Nino seasons - 1982 HUR DEBBY!! 3 nearby out of 6 - One subtropical See re-curvature! Yet, “below average” Season

9. Past strong El Nino seasons - 1972 Spaghetti Network of Tropical systems Formation of Sub-tropicals to NE - # 3 would have produced local conditions prior to formation!

10. Potential Threat: The centre of a tropical system is forecast to come within 400 nautical miles of Bermuda within 72 hours. Threat: within 72 hours: –The centre forecast to come within 100 nautical miles of Bermuda OR the effects of the tropical system are possible in 72 hrs. Possible onset of tropical storm force winds (*TS) Hurricane Watch: 48 hours or less prior to possible onset of (TS 34-63kt) hurricane force (64 knots or more) winds. (*TS) Hurricane Warning: (TS) Hurricane force winds within 36 hours. * Could also include SUB Tropical Storm – Hybrid System Threats, Watches & Warnings

11. BWS Operations www.weather.bm Automated BTC telephone recordings 977, 9771, 9772, 9773 Radio interviews (including 100.1) Marine VHF Channel 2 (Bermuda Radio) CV & WOW BWS Weather Channels Social Media – BWS Facebook page News media announcements Communications with EMO, Aviation & Marine operations via email, fax, phone, satellite phone Full redundancy for BWS equipment, electricity and communications

12. Additional information provided to the EMO BWS director will email the EMO executive email group when a system is expected to affect BDA in any way – BDA Regiment is included in executive group. Weather briefings provided to the EMO as needed in advance of a warning issuance. Before, during and after the event, information will be conveyed in via email to the EMO executive email group (NDC then re-distributes the information to the wider membership, as they see fit). –Onset/cessation and directions of winds reaching the following thresholds:  34 knots (Tropical Storm force)  50 knots (potential Causeway &/or Airport closure, depends on wind direction)  64 knots (Hurricane) –Maximum wave heights expected & the effects due to tidal levels –Time and distance of the closest point of approach of the center of the storm Online Video briefings - produced by BWS when the EMO cannot convene, e.g. during the event or maybe on weekends/short notice events or during preparation.

13. Title 24 hours 15 hours 12 hours Eye aprox 45 min ** 4 hrs Cat3 - Cat2

14. HAW 2015 – Hurricane Awareness Week  Runs from May 27 – 29 th 2015  Request assistance for a press release Friday/Tues please.  Available for Press Conference Asking the public to: –Please review/create a Hurricane Preparedness Plan  for your family and business incorporating lessons from last year –Tropical systems do not behave like winter weather – they can change very rapidly. At the watch stage, please monitor the progress carefully at the warning stage please respond to preparations  Keep updated on the official sources of information –www.weather.bm maintained by BWS, a 24hr local operation & updated routinely – every 3 hours in tandem with NHC advisories (in threat)www.weather.bm  for Bermuda’s official weather forecast, Watches & Warnings –EMO website  for preparation information “ we got our big one last year… it only happens every 8-10 years so we are good now!” It is :”just a tropical storm” …. Until one knot more and then it is a hurricane!

15. HAW 2015 – Community Outreach line up Footage:June 2 week rotation– CITV documentary of BWS & Tropical promos – ZBM film crew tour of BWS & briefing – VSB to air BWS HAW videos in online newscast Radio chats: May 26 th (4pm) & 28 th (10:45am) – VSB Mix106 … with NDC Alt, Red Cross & BELCO May 19-30 th – Live BWS radio chats with VSB - 6:15 am 1450 AM - 5:30pm 106 FM Print & online – June: RG Hurricane Awareness Supplement RG article on HAW 2014 Today in Bermuda article and link to tropical awareness videos Official Briefings: May 20 th – EMO May 27 th – DAO May 26 th – BAS-Serco & DCA Facebook: BWS, BELCO & Red Cross

16. New BWS Products - UV In collaboration with Bermuda Cancer and Health, BWS has been forecasting UV for a year. This May we were able to install UV monitoring equipment. Today we launched the 10min update UV index graph on weather.bm

17. Facebook – Social Media outreach Please help us promote this valuable resource “Poor man” alert system Bermuda promotion Public outreach Education Candid & fun explanations First hand notice Tropical Tsunami

18. South side of Gonzalo – Feeder Rain Bands & Eye wall replacement; transition from Cat 3 to Cat 2 but losing tropical characteristics – 50 knot gust difference from sustained

19. New BWS Products – BWS webcam The BWS webcam fell victim last year and was replaced with a better model.

20. New BWS Products – Parish Radar Map This radar map is a zoomed in image showing the parishes, lighthouse ranges, towers and 30 fathom contour (fishing) - updates every 2 minutes (reg scans were 10 for larger loop)

21. BWS Products ( Behind the scene) – 90 day rainfall

22. Real world BWS challenges – 2014 season –In advance of Hurricanes:  Fay – public prep: hurricane watch issued Sat am for Sun am, “just a TS”, media backlash  Gonzalo – public confusion (Fay aftermath & only days to cleanup), meetings (EMO, DAO, Press) for Gonzalo, Prep: BWS & my home

23. Real world BWS challenges – 2014 season –During Gonzalo – evacuation of observers area, government servers went down (EMO not getting tropical email updates), Kim awake 60 hrs!

24. Real world BWS challenges – 2014 season –After Gonzalo – –mixed weather forecasts from other seemingly local sources who use US terminology “more storms on Sun and Wed” = public panic & extra effort from BWS in public statements and EMO meetings. –The only time BWS had to talk about things we were NOT forecasting – combating public confusion again –Exhausted!! … but aftermath meetings continue followed by lots of data analysis and communications with NHC to reanalyze Fay as a Hurricane.

25. Thank you for your attention Any Questions?