1. PROCESSUS 2nd International Colloquium on the Behavioural Foundations of Integrated Land-use and Transportation Models: Frameworks, Models and Applications Dimitris Potoglou Pavlos S. Kanaroglou Potential Demand for Household Alternative Fuelled Vehicles: An Internet Survey Instrument Centre for Spatial Analysis School of Geography and Geology McMaster University

2. Outline Development Trends in the Automotive Industry Research Questions / Objectives Modelling Approach Data Collection: Internet Survey Anticipated Outcomes and Next Steps

3. Development Trends

4. Research Questions / Objectives What are the major vehicle attributes and household characteristics influencing vehicle transactions and vehicle-type choice? What are the major factors and trade-offs of vehicle attributes for switching from conventional to alternative fuelled vehicle technologies? How can we simulate future vehicle demand allowing for scenario building and policy implications regarding alternative fuelled vehicle technologies?

5. Modelling Framework

6. Data Requirements Revealed (actual) Preferences: –Vehicle transactions and –Vehicle -Type Choices Stated (hypothetical) Choices: –Hypothetical Vehicle Transactions –Hypothetical Vehicle - Technology/Type Choices

7. The CIBER-CARS Survey C hoice I nternet B ased E xperiment for R esearch on CARs

8. Stage 1: Revealed Preferences ItemDescription Householdlocation, type of building, number of members and vehicles, total household income, date household formed, date moved in the Hamilton area. Person (s)gender, age, work and student status, licence, education level. Vehicle (s)make, model, year of production, principal user of the vehicle, ownership, fuel type. Future Vehicle Purchase Plans vehicle class, money spent if purchased, annual usage rate (kilometres/year).

11. Stage 2: Stated Choices Experiment AttributeLevels Purchase Price (1) -20%, (2) -10%, (3) Base, (4) +10% than the Base Annual Fuel Cost(1) - 80%, (2) - 60%, (3) - 40% lower, (4) -20% than Base Annual Maintenance Cost(1) - 50%, (2) -25 %, (3) Base, (4) +25% than Base Fuel Availability (For AFVs only) (1) 75%, (2) 50%, (3) 25% (4) 10% of existing stations Acceleration(1) 6sec, (2) 9 sec, (3) 12, (4) 15 sec Incentives (For Hybrid Electric and AFVs only) (1) None, (2) Carpool Lanes, (3) No Parking or Metered Fees, (4) No Purchase Taxes Pollution Levels (For Hybrid Electric and AFVs only) (1) 10%, (2) 25%, (3) 50%, (4) 75% of present day average car

12. Stage 2: Experimental Design [2] Experimental Design: –4 13 Orthogonal Main Effects Matrix in 64 Scenarios. –2 13 Endpoint and Main Effects and Interactions - within the alternative options - Effects in 64 Scenarios. –Total Design Matrix includes 128 Scenarios. Out of 128 Scenarios, respondents receive 8 scenarios –4 are taken from the first 64 scenarios, and –4 are taken from the second 64 scenarios.

13. A Stated Choices Exercise

14. Survey Implementation Information about the survey was posted on the local intranets of: –The City of Hamilton, and –The Hamilton Health Sciences (short time) An invitation e-mail was distributed to: –McMaster University Employees, Faculty and Staff Recipients of the e-mail were asked to forward the message to others living in the study area.

15. Sample Description Data collection: –March 21 – April 30, 2005 902 respondents participated from all municipalities of Hamilton CMA. –530 stated that they would buy a vehicle in the next 5 years (stage 2) -> 496 eligible responses. –496 * 8 exercises = 3968 observations

16. Response Activity

17. Spatial Distribution of the Sample

18. Descriptive Analysis of Vehicle Choices

19. Anticipated Outcomes and Next Steps Improve our understanding on how urban households make vehicle-transactions and type-choice decisions. Estimation of discrete choice models will contribute to the development of a decision making modelling system accounting for both conventional and alternative vehicle technologies. Simulation results will characterize the role of alternative fuelled vehicles in improving urban air quality.