1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION Prof.Dr. Nguyen Duc Ngu Center for Hydrometeorology and Environment Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu GEF/SGP Vietnam National Steering Committee

2.  1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM  2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS  3. CURRENT STATUS ON GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHGs) EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM  4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM  5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

3. 1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM 1.1 Monsoon tropical climate in a penisular of a greate European – Asian continent + Internal tropic heat radiation + Monsoon circle in South Eastern Asia + Diverse patterns of humidity and temperature + Much of natural disasters: hoarfrost. storms. typhoons. droughts…

4. 1.2 Parameters of some basic factors + Total heat radiation: 85-190 kcal/cm2/year + Balanced heat radiation: 40- 120kcal/cm2/year + Total number of sun shire hours: 1400-3000 hour/year + Average temperature: 13-28C (-3.2 – 42.5) + Average rainfall: 700- 5000 mm + Number of cold front (FRL): 26 + Number of tropical cyclones: 11(in Southern China Sea). 6.9(Vietnam)

5. 1.3 CLIMATE SEASONS  Climate season: V- X  Cold season: XI- IV  Rainy season:  Hot. humid monsoon (Northern region. Central Highland. Southern region) : V– X  Cold. dry monsoon (Northern Central region. Southern Central region): IX-XII  Storm season: VI- XII  Drought season: + Northern region. Central Highland. Southern region : XI – IV + Northern Central region. Central region: VI- VII + Southern Central region : III- VIII

6. 1.4 Region-based climate classification  Figure 1: Climate region in Vietnam

7. 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS  Table 2.1: Standard variation and deviation of frequency FRL FeatureIIIIIIIVVVIVII IXXXIXIIyear Standard variatio n (time) 1.571.04 1.391.071.360.220.361.10 1.680.944.36 Deviation (%)39.330.2 53.541.197.1 220. 0 180.091.745.846.727.616.0

8. 2.2 Table 2.5: Frequency of tropical cyclones. start. mature and end Season of tropical cyclones StartMatureEnd FeatureN. of years Percentage (%) N. of years Percentage (%) N. of years Percentage (%) III12.500.00 IV25.000.00 V37.500.00 VI1845.012.50 0.0 VII1025.037.50 0.0 VIII37.5717.50 0.0 IX12.51435.0512.5 X25.01230.0717.5 XI00.037.51947.5 XII0 0.0 0 820.0 I0 0.0 0 0 II0 0.0 0 12.5 Total40100.04.0100.040100.0

9. 2. 3 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE Table 2.6: Standard variation of some features of temperature in some typical locations (0C). LOcation Monitoring station Average temperature Highest temperat ure in a year Lowest temperatur e in a year IIVVIIXYear North WestLai Chau1.00.90.50.80.31.332.45 North EastSa Pa1.51.10.40.70.40.721.17 Red river deltaHanoi1.41.20.50.90.51.071.46 Northern Central region Vinh1.41.30.7 0.50.821.37 Southern Central region Da Nang1.10.70.50.60.30.931.51 HighlandDa Lat0.70.60.30.40.31.291.72 Mekong River delta Tan Son Nhat 0.90.60.5 0.40.691.38

10. 2.4 CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERN  Table 2.7: frequency of coldest and hottest months FeatureColdestHottest MonthXIXIIIIIIIIIVVVIVIIVIII Hanoi24472940537 Ad Nan25687493615 Tan Son Nat64549037720

11. 2.5 CHANGES IN RAINY SEASON Table 2.8: Standard variation (S; mm) and variation of rainfall (Sr; %) measured in some typical locations Location Monitoring station FeaturesIIVVIIXYear North WestLai Chau S 29.055.5129.361.9286.7 Sr 9942286814 North EastSa Pa S 46.475.2161.9113.6402.8 Sr 6936 5414 Red River DeltaHanoi S 21.653.4101.8104.8320.0 Sr 10255397219 Northern Central region Vinh S 29.037.7119.2353.0514.0 Sr 55591026925 Southern Central region Da Nang S 76.650.783.1276.6545.4 Sr 98143984426 HighlandDa Lat S 12.189.883.2100.3237.1 Sr 15955364113 Mekong River Delta Tan Son Nhat S19.350.793.591.8284.9 Sr140101323415

12. 2.6 TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE

16. Significant signs of Climate Change trends  Less dizzily rain  Less mist  Increased or decreased rainfall in centers  Storms and tropical pressures tend to happen more at the end of the season  Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts

17. 3. GHGs EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM 3.1. GHG emission inventory in 1994 Table 3.1 GHS emission of power-consuming sectors SectorCO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O NO X CO NM VOC SO 2 Power generation 411 5.07 0.10 9 0.0 45 11.7 59 0.836 0.24 6 2.97 9 Industry and construction 767 1.17 0.43 3 0.0 81 22.0 61 5.199 0.93 1 5.35 9 Transport 363 4.43 0.46 5 0.0 43 35.8 22 158.7 24 30.3 42 1.36 5 Services/ Commerce 197 4.69 0.24 2 0.0 22 2.42 1 19.19 8 1.96 4 1.11 8 Domestic use 180 6.04 118. 777 1.5 45 40.0 11 1931. 933 231. 216 286. 69 Agro-forestry and fishery 887. 73 0.09 8 0.0 07 14.5 37 12.35 5 2.44 6 0.51 1 Others 149 0.87 0.38 5 0.0 13 2.15 5 1.59 0.22 2 0.81 2 Total 215 80.0 120. 589 1.7 56 128. 763 2129. 836 267. 367 298. 84

18. 3.2 GHG emission inventory in 1998  Table 3.2 Emission of CH4 from exploitation activities (thousand tones) Exploitation activitiesEmission Underground coal mine37,362 Surface coal mine2,387 Oil exploitation0.748 Gas exploitation4,565 Gas leakage1,702 Total46,764

19. 3.3 Projected emission for 2010 - 2028  Table 3.3 GHG emission from industrial production 1994 (thousand tones). Industrial productionCO 2 NO X COSO 2 NMVOC Cement2,677.241,611.18 Lime production651.99 Natri carbonate production0.52 Use of Natri carbonate2.24 Steel production475.20.0110.0120.008 Paper production0.2300.8611.0760.569 Wine and beer0.136 Food4.075 Total3,807.190.2410.8611,612.2664.788

20. 4. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 4.1 Climate Change simulation models in Vietnam Table 4.1 Simulation models developed based on GHG emission scenarios Year 200 0 202 0 204 0 206 0 208 0 210 0 Increased temperature 0 0 C IS 92a0.10.40.81.01.52.0 IS 92b0.10.40.81.01.52.0 IS 92c0.10.40.70.81.01.2 IS 92d0.10.40.71.01.31.6 IS 92e0.10.40.81.21.62.5 IS 92f0.10.40.81.21.62.4 Sea level rise (cm) IS 92a1716243649 IS 92b1716243649 IS 92c1715233138 IS 92d1715233142 IS 92e1717253855 IS 92f1717253854

21. 4.2 Predictions on Climate Change scenarios  Significantly increased temperature North West, North East, and Central Highland  Significantly increased rainfall in rainy season in Northern Central and Southern Central regions  Rainfall in dry season: + Increased rainfall in Northern Central and Southern Central regions + Both increased and decreased rainfall in some other regions  Significant Sea level rise in the second half of 21 st century

22. 5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM  Water resources: - Average water flow: - (minus) - Water flow in dry season: - - - Water flow in flood: + + - Lack of water due to severe droughts  Agriculture - Boundary of tropical crops and trees shift to further North - Boundary of sub-tropical crops and trees is shrunk - Increased inundation and severe droughts - Decreased cultivable areas

23.  Forestry: - Shrinking mangrove forests - Boundary of forest of diperocarpacea species move further to the North - Drought-tolerant tree species are expanding - Risks of forest fire and attack by insects increased  Fishery - Changes in balneology and aquatic habitats - Fishery resources are fragmented - Increased population of tropical fish species - Increased population of sub- tropical fish species

24.  Impacts on transport and energy  Impacts on:  Oil exploration facilities in sea  Railways in coastal areas  Power consumption for domestic use  Water flows in rivers and water reservoirs for power generation  Impacts on health  Negative effects on elder’s health  Cardiovascular diseases. tropical diseases…

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