1. Bab 4.2 - 1/57 Bab 4 Classification: Basic Concepts, Decision Trees & Model Evaluation Part 2 Model Overfitting & Classifier Evaluation

2. Bab 4.2 - 2/57 Classification Error

3. Bab 4.2 - 3/57 Example Data Set

4. Bab 4.2 - 4/57 Decision Trees

5. Bab 4.2 - 5/57 Model Overfiting

6. Bab 4.2 - 6/57 Overfiting due to Presence of Noise Decision boundary is distorted by noise point

7. Bab 4.2 - 7/57 Example: Mammal Classification

8. Bab 4.2 - 8/57 Effect of Noise

9. Bab 4.2 - 9/57 Overfiting due to Insufficient Examples Lack of data points in the lower half of the diagram makes it difficult to predict correctly the class labels of that region Insufficient number of training records in the region causes the decision tree to predict the test examples using other training records that are irrelevant to the classification task

10. Bab 4.2 - 10/57 Lack of Representative Samples

11. Bab 4.2 - 11/57 Effect of Multiple Comparison Procedure / 1

12. Bab 4.2 - 12/57 Effect of Multiple Comparison Procedure / 2 How does the multiple comparison procedure relate to model overfitting?

13. Bab 4.2 - 13/57 Effect of Multiple Comparison Procedure / 3

14. Bab 4.2 - 14/57 Notes on Overfitting

15. Bab 4.2 - 15/57 Estimating Generalization Errors

16. Bab 4.2 - 16/57 Resubstitution Estimates Note: classification decision at each leaf node is based on the majority class

17. Bab 4.2 - 17/57 Incorporating Model Complexity (IMC)

18. Bab 4.2 - 18/57 IMC: Pessimistic Error Estimates

19. Bab 4.2 - 19/57 Pessimistic Error Estimates: Example  = 0.5  e’(T L ) = (4 + 7 x 0.5) / 24 = 0.3125 e’(T R ) = (6 + 4 x 0.5) / 24 = 0.3333  = 1.0  e’(T L ) = (4 + 7 x 1) / 24 = 0.458 e’(T R ) = (6 + 4 x 1) / 24 = 0.417

20. Bab 4.2 - 20/57 IMC: Minimum Description Length/1 Based on “information-theoretic approach” In the above example: A and B are given a set of records with known attributes x A knows exact label for each record, while B knows none B obtain the classification of each record by requesting that A transmits the class label sequentially (require Ө(n), where n = total number of records)

21. Bab 4.2 - 21/57 IMC: Minimum Description Length/2

22. Bab 4.2 - 22/57 Estimating Statistical Bounds N = total number of training records used to compute e  = confidence level Z  /2 = standardized value from a standard normal distribution e’ = upper bound limit of error

23. Bab 4.2 - 23/57 Using Validation Set

24. Bab 4.2 - 24/57 Handling Overfitting in Decision Tree / 1

25. Bab 4.2 - 25/57 Handling Overfitting in Decision Tree / 2

26. Bab 4.2 - 26/57 Example of Post-Pruning / 1

27. Bab 4.2 - 27/57 Example of Post-Prunning / 2

28. Bab 4.2 - 28/57 Evaluating Performance of Classifier

29. Bab 4.2 - 29/57 Model Evaluation  Metrics for Performance Evaluation  How to evaluate the performance of a model?  Methods for Performance Evaluation  How to obtain reliable estimates?  Methods for Model Comparison  How to compare the relative performance among competing models?

30. Bab 4.2 - 30/57 Metric for Performance Evaluation / 1  Focus on the predictive capability of a model  Rather than how fast it takes to classify or build models, scalability, etc.  Confusion Matrix: PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS Class=YesClass=No Class=Yesab Class=Nocd a: TP (true positive) b: FN (false negative) c: FP (false positive) d: TN (true negative)

31. Bab 4.2 - 31/57 Metric for Performance Evaluation / 2 PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS Class=YesClass=No Class=Yesa (TP) b (FN) Class=Noc (FP) d (TN)

32. Bab 4.2 - 32/57 Limitation of Accuracy  Consider a 2-class problem  Number of Class 0 examples = 9990  Number of Class 1 examples = 10  If model predicts everything to be class 0, accuracy is 9990/10000 = 99.9 %  Accuracy is misleading because model does not detect any class 1 example

33. Bab 4.2 - 33/57 Cost Matrix PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS C(i|j) Class=YesClass=No Class=Yes C(Yes|Yes)C(No|Yes) Class=No C(Yes|No)C(No|No) C(i|j): Cost of misclassifying class j example as class i

34. Bab 4.2 - 34/57 Computing Cost of Classification Cost Matrix PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS C(i|j) +- + 100 - 10 Model M 1 PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS +- + 15040 - 60250 Model M 2 PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS +- + 25045 - 5200 Accuracy = 80% Cost = 3910 Accuracy = 90% Cost = 4255

35. Bab 4.2 - 35/57 Cost vs. Accuracy Count PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS Class=YesClass=No Class=Yes ab Class=No cd Cost PREDICTED CLASS ACTUAL CLASS Class=YesClass=No Class=Yes pq Class=No qp N = a + b + c + d Accuracy = (a + d)/N Cost = p (a + d) + q (b + c) = p (a + d) + q (N – a – d) = q N – (q – p)(a + d) = N [q – (q-p)  Accuracy] Accuracy is proportional to cost if 1. C(Yes|No)=C(No|Yes) = q 2. C(Yes|Yes)=C(No|No) = p

36. Bab 4.2 - 36/57 Cost-Sensitive Measure l Precision is biased towards C(Yes|Yes) & C(Yes|No) l Recall is biased towards C(Yes|Yes) & C(No|Yes) l F-measure is biased towards all except C(No|No)

37. Bab 4.2 - 37/57 Methods for Performance Evaluation How to obtain a reliable estimate of performance? Performance of a model may depend on other factors besides the learning algorithm:  Class distribution  Cost of misclassification  Size of training and test sets

38. Bab 4.2 - 38/57 Learning curve l Learning curve shows how accuracy changes with varying sample size l Effect of small sample size: - Bias in the estimate - Variance of estimate

39. Bab 4.2 - 39/57 Methods for Estimation Holdout Method Random Subsampling Cross-Validation Bootstrap

40. Bab 4.2 - 40/57 Holdout Method Original data is partitioned into 2 disjoint sets: training dan test sets  Reserve k% as training set and (100-k)% as test set  Accuracy of the classifier can be estimated based on the accuracy of the induced model on the test set Limitations:  The induced model may not be as good as when all the labeled examples are used for training (i.e., the smaller the training size, the larger the variance of the model)  If the training set is too large, the estimated accuracy computed from the smaller test set is less reliable (i.e., a wide confidence interval)  The training and test sets are no longer independent of each other, because the training and test sets are subsets of the original data)

41. Bab 4.2 - 41/57 Random Subsampling Based on holdout method that is repeated several times to improve the estimated accuracy  The overall accuracy = Where k : total number of iteration, acc i : model accuracy during i th iteration Problems:  As for holdout method, it does not utilize as much data as possible for training  It has no control over the number of times each record is used for testing and training (i.e., some records might be used for training more often than others)

42. Bab 4.2 - 42/57 Cross-Validation Partition data into k equal-sized disjoin subsets  k-fold: train ok k-1 partitions, test on the remaining one (repeated k times so that each partition is used for testing exactly once)  If k = N (the size of the data set)  called “Leave-one-out” method (i.e., each test set contains only one record)  The total estimated accuracy is computed as for Random Subsampling Advantages of Leave-one-out method:  Data is utilized as mush as possible for training  The test sets are mutually exclusive and they are effectively cover the entire data set Drawback of Leave-one-out method :  Computationally expensive by repeating procedure N times  Variance of the estimated performance metric tends to be high, since each test set contains only one record

43. Bab 4.2 - 43/57 Bootstrap Sampling with replacement  All previous approaches assume that the training records are sampled without replacement  In bootstrap approach, training records are sampled with replacement  If original data contains N records  on average a “bootstrap” sample of size N contains about 63.2% of the records in the original data (probability of a record is chosen  1 – (1 – 1/N) N  1 – e −1 = 0.632 for N  )  Records that are not included in the bootstrap sample become part of the test set  The sampling procedure is repeated b times to generate b bootstrap sample.632 bootstrap approach (one of widely used approaches)  Acc boot =  i : accuracy of each bootstrap sample; acc s : accuracy computed from a training set contains all the labeled examples in the original data

44. Bab 4.2 - 44/57 Methods for Comparing Classifiers (issue of estimating the confidence interval of a given model accuracy) (issue of testing the statistical significance of the observed deviation)

45. Bab 4.2 - 45/57 Confidence Interval for Accuracy / 1

46. Bab 4.2 - 46/57 Confidence Interval for Accuracy / 2

47. Bab 4.2 - 47/57 Confidence Interval for Accuracy / 3

48. Bab 4.2 - 48/57 Confidence Interval for Accuracy / 4

49. Bab 4.2 - 49/57 Comparing Performance of 2 Models / 1

50. Bab 4.2 - 50/57 Comparing Performance of 2 Models / 2

51. Bab 4.2 - 51/57 An Illustrative Example

52. Bab 4.2 - 52/57 Comparing Performance of 2 Classifiers

53. Bab 4.2 - 53/57 An Illustrative Example

54. Bab 4.2 - 54/57 Handling Missing Attributes Missing values affect decision tree construction in three different ways:  Affects how impurity measures are computed  Affects how to distribute instance with missing value to child nodes  Affects how a test instance with missing value is classified

55. Bab 4.2 - 55/57 Computing Impurity Measure Split on Refund: Entropy(Refund=Yes) = 0 – (3/3)log(3/3) = 0 Entropy(Refund=No) = -(3/7)log(3/7) – (4/7)log(4/7) = 0.9852 Entropy(Children) = 0.3 (0) + 0.6 (0.9852) = 0.5911 Gain = 0.8813 – 0.5911 = 0.2902 Missing value is assumed = No (majority) Before Splitting: Entropy(Parent) = -0.3 log(0.3)-(0.7)log(0.7) = 0.8813

56. Bab 4.2 - 56/57 Distributed Instances Refund YesNo Refund YesNo Probability that Refund=Yes is 3/9 Probability that Refund=No is 6/9 Assign record to the left child with weight = 3/9 and to the right child with weight = 6/9

57. Bab 4.2 - 57/57 Classify Instances Refund MarSt TaxInc YES NO Yes No Married Single, Divorced < 80K> 80K MarriedSingleDivorcedTotal Class=No3104 Class=Yes6/9112.67 Total3.6721 6.67 New record: Probability that Marital Status = Married is 3.67 / 6.67 Probability that Marital Status ={Single, Divorced} is 3 / 6.67

58. Bab 4.2 - 58/57 Tugas Kelompok Bab 4 Soal Nomor: 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 Selain hardcopy, siapkan softcopynya untuk didiskusikan Dead line: Selasa (17 Maret 2008)