1. The Influence of Mountain Pine Beetle Damage on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires Heather J. Lynch Paul R. Moorcroft

2. Remote sensing of fire & insect damage 1972-1975 1979-1982 mountain pine beetle damage

3. covariates regression coefficients to be estimated Spatial Logistic Regression Model: What is the relationship between previous insect damage and the probability of burning in 1988? burn/no burn weather geographic factors insect damage latitude longitude

4. mean 95% confidence interval Palmer Drought Severity Index  A more negative PDSI is associated with more severe drought. Therefore, as we might expect, more severe drought is associated with a higher probability of burning.  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) Results after model selection, 3 variables remained (=autocorr)

5. mean 95% confidence interval Results (cont.)  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) northeast- facing aspect  northeast facing slopes are more likely to burn than southwest facing slopes.

6. mean 95% confidence interval Results (cont.)  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) repeated mountain pine beetle damage 1972-1975  Repeated mountain pine beetle damage of any intensity during 1972-1975 is associated with an increased risk of burning in the 1988 fires.

7. mean 95% confidence interval Results (cont.)  ˆ (estimated model coefficients) autocorrelation coefficient  The coefficient associated with the strength of auto-correlation is most dominant.

8. non-spatial model Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

9. auto-correlation only Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

10. best-fit model with a random border: 61.0% of all pixels correctly predicted Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

11. best-fit model with a known border: 87.3% of all pixels correctly predicted Left: burn prob. (red = burned)Right: mis-classified pixels (pink)

12.  mountain pine beetle activity significantly affects the spatial patterning of forest fires, but only after a time lag of ~15 years  mountain pine beetle activity impacts fire risk primarily through a change in stand structure and not as a direct result of increased fuel loading Conclusions Publications: Lynch, H.J. RA Renkin, R.L. Crabtree & P.R. Moorcroft (2006). The Influence of Previous Mountain Pine Beetle Activity on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires. Ecosystems 9: 1318-1327.

13. HyMap (5.7 m resolution, 126 wavelength bands, airplane mounted) Satellite-derived estimates of forest insect damage non-photosynthetic vegetation in red