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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING U.S. Wheat Associates CHINA FEBRUARY 2008
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China – Population: 1.3 billion
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China Economy: Fastest Growing Major Economy ( 2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%) (Billion US$) Source: China National Statistics Bureau Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%
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High Per Capita GDP Growth (Unit: US$) Source: China National Statistics Bureau Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%
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China – Wheat area: PRC 23.5 MHa / USA 23.4 MHa
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Dalian Xiamen Shenzhen Zhanjiang Lianyungang Huangpu Fangcheng Qinhaungdao Xingang Nantong Zhangjiagang Shanghai Ningbo China - 15 MAJOR PORTS 15 MAJOR PORTS Yantiai Qingdao
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China Wheat Situation
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China accounted for 49% of world stocks in 1999/2000, down to 29% Chinese vs. Rest of the World Ending Stocks
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China’s Soybean Supply / Demand
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China’s Rice Supply / Demand
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China’s Corn Supply / Demand
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China – Wheat Area and Production 23.0 107 4.6
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China Wheat Production - Major Producer Provinces (Unit: MMT) Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) * Estimate
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China Wheat Yield - By Major Province (Unit: MT/Ha) Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) * Estimate
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China Daily Grain Market Price : Source: China National Grain & Oils Information Center Exchange rate @8.0 since Sep 2004, @7.86 since Nov 2006, @7.55 since Jul 2007 @7.5 since Aug 2007, @7.15 since Jan 2008
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U.S. FOB PNW Prices
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SRW and Soft White Prices
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Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice China Wheat Imports - Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: MMT) Source: China Customs Statistics
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice China Flour Imports - Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: TMT) Source: China Customs Statistics
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China’s US Imports Purchases and actual imports: Containerized and bulk vessel shipments *(July – June) HRW – 0.5 SW/WW-5.8 NS/DNS-3.3 SRW – 57.3 SW/WW-178 NS/DNS-188 SRW – 66 376 152 HRW – 0.3 SW/WW-10.5 NS/DNS-0.7 SRW – 0 516 725
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice China Wheat Exports - Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: MMT) Source: China Customs Statistics
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice China Wheat Exports - *Crop Year – by Country (Unit: MMT) Source: China Customs Statistics *Crop Year from June to next May
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice China Flour Exports - Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: 10 TMT) Source: China Customs Statistics
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice China Flour Exports - * Marketing Year – by Country (Unit: 10 TMT) Source: China Customs Statistics *Marketing Year from July to next June
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China’s flour consumption estimates – 70 MMT
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Market Quality Segments High Medium Low Medium Low Market Pressure CurrentFuture High
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QSR Expansion (Quick Service Retail) Western-Style Fast Food Source: China Food Industry Association and internet Quick Service Retail Chains (QSR) # of outlets May 2004 # of outlets January 2005 # of outlets June 2007 Growth % 07 vs 05 KFC1,0001,4001,800+28.5% McDonald’s56066381514.6% Pizza Hut130150200+33.3% Dico’s30040054- 640.7%
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HRW & HWW Use – China ( HWW - 12.5 or higher protein ) Western Pan Bread (only pan loaf tested in OVA) Sweet Breads European Hearth Breads Dumpling (Jiao Zi) Wrappers Premium Grade Chilled and Fresh Noodles
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Policies Affecting Wheat Domestic & int’l price differential TRQ Value added tax - VAT Milling wheat and flour exports VAT, TRQ Flour exports to other Asian markets Animal & plant quarantine rules Dockage and non-wheat seeds TCK and KB fungus Insects MRL’s for pesticides Food labeling requirements
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US Wheat Activities Trade servicing and information Weekly price report Crop and harvest progress reports Supply & demand reports Industry & Government relations Publications Chinese or dual language Sino – America Baking School Instructor training (USA, Europe, Asia) Baking technical servicing Milling technical servicing Wheat procurement training Overseas Varietal Analysis Asian products collaborative
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U.S. WHEAT the world’s reliable choice Questions / Answers
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