1. Planning and Opportunities Deidre Thian Ph.D.

2. Overview What is happening in terms of enrolments at this time What is likely to happen in the future?

3. ENROLMENT PATTERNS, 2010-14 Part 1

4. Cairns (R) – All Schools

5. Cairns (R) – Market share change

6. Cairns (R) – The most important years

7. Burrowing….. SA2 picture (XL Spreadsheet Activity) SA3 Generally have a population of between 30,000 and 130,000 people. In major cities represent the area serviced by a major transport and commercial hub. They often closely align to large urban local government areas. In regional areas, they represent the area serviced by regional cities with a population over 20,000 people. SA2 Average population of about 10,000, with a minimum population of 3,000 and a maximum of 25,000. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to suburbs or combinations of suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. SA1 An average population of about 400 persons. Can provide very specific information regarding characteristics of areas contributing students to the school.

8. THE FUTURE Part 2

9. Projections School Planning Commission

11. Projections Age cohort projections – Mapping

12. Enrolment forecasts (maintaining market share)

13. BUT – its not just about projections What will happen in the future will be a product of: – Changes in the number of students AND – The level of service provision (i.e. competition and marketing) – Any changes in the socio-economic profile of the area serviced KNOWING YOUR CATCHMENT AREA AND THE PROFILE OF THE STUDENT POPULATION IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE

14. Your Catchment Area The importance of distance

15. Age Structure Areas of importance Mapping (Concentration, Age Cohort Differences)

16. Income Profile Mapping

17. IRSAD Mapping

18. Competition Participation rates – Sector competition (mapping) 2016 census and school address collection – Your school vis-à-vis other independent schools Independent Schools Queensland allows member schools to use, share, and modify this presentation as long as credit is given to the original creator (Independent Schools Queensland).