1. Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling National Institute for Environmental Studies Mikiko Kainuma Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy, October 25, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

2. CO2 emission intensity 1995 2032 Market Policy 0 5 10 100 1000 gC/m 2 /year

3. Population projection in Market First Scenario Japan Oceania South East Asia East Asia South Asia 2000 2015 2030 Asia-Pacific Western, Eastern, South Africa America Europe + CIS Middle East + Northern Africa 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 million Population projection in Security First Scenario

4. World GDP in Market First Scenario World GDP in Security First Scenario

5. Energy related CO 2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region

6. Change in energy related CO 2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region

7. -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -0.5 0 GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen) GDP loss caused by Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry 20052010 Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto (without international emission trade)

8. Recovery by investment in advanced technology development 20052010 Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto (without international emission trade) -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -0.5 0 GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen) GDP loss caused by Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

9. Recovery by increasing environmental premium of consumption 20052010 Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto (without international emission trade) -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -0.5 0 GDP change (comparison with baseline, trillion yen) Recovery by investment in advanced technology development GDP loss caused by Kyoto target Recovery by increased production of environmental industry

10. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990200020102020 CO 2 Emission (MtCO 2 ) A1 A2 B1 B2 102 96 98 96 A1 A2 B1 B2 105 88 87 83 A1A1 A2A2 B1B1 B2B2 A1A1 A2A2 B1B1 B2B2 (1990=100) Estimates of CO 2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model

11. 450 ppmv 550 ppmv 650 ppmv Business as Usual 2000 2050 2100 10 20 30 40 0 CO2 emissions （ GtC ） Necessary reductions for stabilization assuming Business as Usual development path

12. GDP loss (%) 750ppm 650ppm 550ppm 450ppm Business as Usual 4.1 2.9 2.3 1.2 Economic growth control 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.2 Eco-market establishment 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 Lifestyle change 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 AdvancedTechnology introduction introduction 0.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Environmental Innovations for Cost Reduction