1. Shabelle Regions Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2. Field Coverage in Shabelle Regions: FS field analysts in Lower and Middle Shabelle had access to field in most districts, including Qoryaley, Kurtunwarey, Merca and Afgoye in L/Sh and Balad, Jowhar and parts of Cadale districts in M/Sh. In the areas that could not be accessed by the Field Analysts directly, Food Security information was collected through teleconferencing using enumerators with key informants/focus groups. In addition, FS analysts travelled to most districts for crop assessment, field observation, livestock and market conditions. Nutrition information was obtained through partners and key informants. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income: Riverine livelihood:  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment.  Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase.  Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle)  Agropastoral Maize/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor : crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc);  Main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and purchase.  Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self- employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase.

4. Overall statement: Deyr rains have failed in all livelihoods of the Shabelle regions. Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall (October-December) of 0-20% of the normal. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010 Rainfall Climate: Deyr 2010/2011 dekadal rainfall performances Start of Season: started on time Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very low intensity of rains, with inadequate duration, frequency and amount in both regions. Source:

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions (M.Shabelle) NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover

6. Climate Vegetation Conditions (L.Shabelle) NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover

7.  Civil Security Situation: High political tension among religious groups Prolonged political confrontation in Mogadishu, and likely new conflicts at the border of M. Shabelle with Hiran  Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Market disruption mainly in the districts surrounding Mogadishu. Short term impact on urban areas and transportation routes in conflict areas. Restriction of humanitarian intervention - (suspension of World vision, Diakonia and ADRA activities in southern Somalia) negatively impacting access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers ). High taxation by local authorities in the rural areas that led many households to migrate to less controlled areas. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity

8. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2010/11 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr ‘09/10 Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Adan Yabaal --0--- Balcad 2,450- 70%68%98% Cadale --0--- Jowhar/Mahaday 2,800- 41%36%56% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total 5,2500 51%46%70% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2010/11 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr ‘09/10 Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Afgooye 600 8%7%11% Baraawe --0--- Kurtunwaarey 2,200- 210%79%78% Marka 2,400- 90%27%66% Qoryoley 1,500- 50%27%39% Sablale 960- 100%133%249% Wanla Weyne --0--- Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total 7,6600 34%23%38%

9. Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle (1995-2010) Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

10. Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle (1995-2010)

11. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends in Shabelle Regions – Combined (1995-2010)

12. Agriculture Regional Contribution to Overall Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia Shabelle regions collectively account for 72% of the total cereal production (maize and sorghum) in southern Somalia.

13. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates(Mt)– Middle Shabelle DistrictSesameC/peaRiceTotal Jowhar4501203,0003,570 Balad18060-240 Cadale---- A/Yabal---- Total6301803,0003,810

14. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates – Lower Shabelle DistrictSesameCowpeaTotal Afgoye15030180 Barawa000 K/warey2000802080 Marka40300340 Qorioley603595 Sablale10001501150 W/weyne000 Total3,2505953,845

15. Agriculture Differences Between Riverine Areas in M and L. Shabelle Regions Lower ShabelleMiddle Shabelle Good irrigation infrastructurePoor irrigation infrastructure Banana plantationsRice plantation Good gravity irrigationPumping irrigation Good market access (paved road)Poor market access (rough road) Interventions from local NGOsLimited interventions from local NGOs

16. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Good Riverine Rice Crop. Kallundi, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor Maize Crop. Marka, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, December 2010. Good sesame,Goosarow,Qoryoley,Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Significant drop down of Shabelle River Level. Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10.

17. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow: Maize from Shabelle flows to Mogadishu markets and then to Hiran and central regions

18. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Trends in Cereal Prices: Jowhar (Middle Shabelle) Trends in Cereal Prices: Afgoye, Marka and Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle) Factors Influencing cereal prices: Poor Maize production - Riverine Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. High demand on maize from neighbouring regions, including Banadir

19. Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Factors Influencing Wage Labour Rates: High supply of casual labour (L. Shabelle in particular), pushing down the wage rates. Agricultural activities such as canal rehabilitation/road maintenance as a cash for work Seasonality Middle Shabelle (Jowhar) Lower Shabelle (all main markets)

20. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Jowhar, Middle Shabelle (5 kg of maize/ daily wage rate) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (6 kg of maize/ daily wage rate) Factors affecting Terms of Trade: High cereal prices Decrease in labour wage rates High supply of casual labour due to labour migration from agro-pastoral areas following a very poor seasonal performance.

21. Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Deyr ’10/11 Livestock Poor performance of Deyr ’10/11 season in both regions resulting in below normal pasture and water Abnormal migration to riverine areas of both regions.

22. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/ki dding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) LivelihoodsLivestock Species M/L Shabelle Low for all species in all livelihoods Medium for all species Poor for all species Camel : Medium Cattle: Low- None Shoats: Low Shabelle Agro- Pastoral All Species: Decreased trend for all species

23. Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: M/ Shabelle (Jowhar) Livestock Trends in Goat Prices Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: L/ Shabelle (all markets) Factors Influencing livestock prices: Poor body condition Less saleable animals in Middle Shabelle Increased livestock supply into Lower Shabelle markets after an influx of livestock from other livelihoods and regions into riverine Low livestock demand after the end of Hajj period

24. Livestock Trends in Cattle Prices Regional Trends in Local Cattle Prices (M/ Shabelle) - Jowhar Regional Trends in Local Cattle Prices (L/Shabelle) – All markets Factors Influencing Livestock Prices: Poor body condition High livestock supply into markets after an influx of livestock into riverine areas Reduced sales at Garissa market due to poor pasture and shortage of water along cattle trekking route to the market Low livestock demand after Hajj period

25. Regional Trends inTerms of Trade: M/ Shabelle (64kg of maize/goat) - Jawhar Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat: L/ Shabelle ( 98 kg/head) – all markets Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – goat to cereal Factors Influencing Goat to Maize ToT: High Cereal Prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply.

26. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: M/ Shabelle (267kg of maize/head of cattle) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: L/ Shabelle ( 176 kg of maize/head of cattle) Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – local quality cattle to cereal Factors Influencing TOT (cattle to maize): High Cereal Prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions, low demand and high supply.

27. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) Disruption in commercial imports and Bakkara market, due to persisting fighting in Mogadishu and continuous piracy activities Increase in prices on international markets Markets

28. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct – Dec 10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 ShabelleM. Shabelle Riverine N/A M. Shabelle Agropastoral N/A Afgoye IDPs GAM of 21.6% (18.2-25.3), SAM of 3.2% (2.2-4.6) (FSNAU & partners, Dec’10) M. Shabelle Riverine >15% (23.0%;R=3) N=1650; 15 sites M. Shabelle Agropastoral >15%25.0%; R=3) N=1650; 15 sites L. Shabelle Riverine N=2200; 20 sites GAM MUAC of >15% (27.7%; R3) SAM MUAC of >3% (8.7% R3) (FSNAU & partners, Dec‘10) L. Shabelle Agropastoral N= 2200; 20 sites GAM MUAC of >15% (23.4%; R3), SAMMUAC of >3% (7.4%; R3) (FSNAU & partners, Dec‘10) Mogadishu/ Banadir N=1320; 6 District sites GAMMUAC of >15% (29.2%; R3) SAMMUAC of >3% (12.0%; R3) (FSNAU & partners, Dec‘10) High (>15%) and stable trends July- Dec ‘10, consistent with ‘09 trends High (>20%) and increasing trends July-Dec ‘10, higher than ‘09 trends High (>15%) and stable trends July- Dec ‘10, consistent with ‘09 trends High (>20%) and increasing trends July-Dec ‘10, higher than ‘09 trends Very high (>20%) and fluctuating trends in the last 6 months in Medina, Waberi, Hamar weyne and Hamar Jabjab. Low levels (<5%) and stable trends in Zam zam (July-Dec’10). N/A High and increasing numbers of admissions (in charge) in ACF managed centers (Hodan and Forlanini). Source: Jul – Dec ’ 2010) Overall Aggravating Factors: Civil insecurity - Mogadishu remains the epicenter Limited Humanitarian space; displacement associated with civil insecurity Disease outbreaks- AWD, cholera, malaria and whooping cough Taxation Limited access to health centers Limited medical supplies in the area Increasing number of new IDPs Overall Mitigating Factors: Limited access to SF programs Income from sale of fodder and some labor opportunities among the riverine Social support M. Shabelle Riverine – Deterioration from Alert- No phase classification due to insufficient data but signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical M. Shabelle Agrop - Deterioration from Alert- No phase classification due to insufficient data signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical L. Shabelle Riverine – Deterioration from likely to be Serious in Gu ’10 - No phase classification due to insufficient data signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical L. Shabelle Agrop - Deterioration from likely to be Serious in Gu ‘10- No phase classification due to insufficient data but signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical Afgoye IDPs Deterioration from Critical in Gu ‘10 to Very Critical Banadir Deterioration from likely Critical in Gu ‘10 to likely Very Critical

29. Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2010 Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates

30. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation (M.Shabelle) Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Middle Shabelle (Central Agro-Pastoral (Aden Yabal and Adale) 50% Poor in HE, 50% Poor AFLC with Watch. Southern Agropastoral (Balad & Jowhar) 75% Poor AFLC with Watch, riverine (Balad and Jowhar) 50% Poor AFLC with Moderate Risk, Coastal Deeh 50% Poor in HE, 50% Poor AFLC with Watch. Acute malnutrition: insufficient data with signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical – Central AP Food Access: entitlement gap; 2100kcal ppp/day Water Access: average with poor quality Destitution/Displacement: IDP concentration in camps; increasing. Coping: collection of bush products, social support including Zakat of animals and crop - riverine, gifts in kind or cash, migration. Livelihood Assets: remain same as in Gu ’10 in most LZs but deteriorated in Coastal Deeh. Main Contributing Factors: Rainfall failure Crop failure production High cereal prices Declining terms of trade Job opportunity migrate to riverine Poor livestock body condition and low livestock prices. MAP 3: Livelihood Zones MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

31. Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Lower Shabelle: Agropastoral (Wanlaweyn) BFI with High Risk (25% Poor in AFLC), Southeast Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk, Southern Inland Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk, riverine - BFI with Moderate Risk, Southern Coastal Pastoral - BFI with Moderate risk. Acute malnutrition: Insufficient data with signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical Food Access: borderline adequate (2100kcal ppp day) Water Access: Average, but quality is very poor. Destitution/Displacement: concentrated; increasing Coping: insurance strategies - Collection of bush products, social support including Zakat of animals and crops - riverine. Livelihood Assets: deteriorating for agro-pastoral and pastoral Main Contributing Factors: Maize and cash crop production (riverine) Carry-over stocks Cash for work, cash from grass sale Low labour wages High milk price High grass prices for pastoralist and agropastoralists High cereal prices MAP 3: Livelihood Zones MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation (L.Shabelle) MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

32. IPC Classification of Rural Population (L.Shabelle) Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) L/ ShabelleCoastal pastoral: goats & cattle2,534 0000 L.Shab. r/fed & f/irr372,273 00 00 Shabelle Riverine115,552 00 00 South-East Pastoral6,884 00 00 Southern Agro-Past106,902 00 9,0000 Southern Inland Past73,793 00 00 SUB-TOTAL677,937 009,0000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE09,000 Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) L/ Shabelle Afgooye/Aw Dheegle 178,605 0000 Baraawe42,239 0 000 Kurtunwaarey48,019 0 000 Marka129,039 0 000 Qoryooley111,364 0 000 Sablaale35,044 0 000 Wanla Weyn133,627 0 09,0000 SUB-TOTAL677,937 009,0000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE09,000

33. IPC Classification of Rural Population (M.Shabelle) Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) M/ ShabelleAdan Yabaal55,717 4,0001,0007,000 Balcad/Warsheikh105,266 9,000022,0005,000 Cadale35,920 2,0001,0005,000 Jowhar/Mahaday222,167 30,000036,0000 SUB-TOTAL419,070 45,0002,00070,00017,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE47,00087,000 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) M/ ShabelleCentral Agro-Past36,695 7,0002,0005,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep93,722 0012,000 Shabelle Riverine53,657 0011,0000 Southern Agro-Past160,948 28,000042,0000 Southern Inland Past74,048 10,000000 SUB-TOTAL419,070 45,0002,00070,00017,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE47,00087,000

34. IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 10/11 M/ Shabelle Adan Yabaal 7,2002,000028 Balcad 28,1066,000021 Cadale 10,8003,000028 Jowhar 36,8448,000022 Mahaday 10,2462,000020 Warsheikh 2,6351,000038 Sub-Total 95,83122,000023 L/Shabelle Afgooye 21,6022,0007,00042 Aw Dheegle 11,5051,0004,00043 Baraawe 15,4131,0004,00032 Kurtunwaarey 7,4261,0002,00040 Marka 63,9007,00022,00045 Qoryooley 22,8412,0006,00035 Sablaale 8,0111,0002,00037 Wanla Weyn 22,0162,0006,00036 Sub-Total 172,71417,00053,00041

35. The End