1. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817 PP QPF WP 3.2 M. Milelli*, E. Oberto*, A. Parodi** *ARPA Piemonte, Torino **CIMA, Savona

2. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007

3. 18 August 2006, 00 UTC: Bracknell analysis

4. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007

6. Rain cumulated between 17 August 17:50 UTC and 18 August 05:50 UTC

7. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Maximum observed rainfall depths, for time window d=1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h, by some raingauge stations in the Toce and Sesia catchments during the event of 17 august 2006. Return time > 50 years!!!

8. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Observed rainfall ietographs in the raingauge stations of Cossogno- Cicogna and Cursolo-Orasso in the Toce catchment (16 august-18 august 2006). Most of the rainfall event occurred in the period 18 UTC of 17 august-06 UTC of 18 august 2006.

9. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Ticino Toce Sesia +06/+30 interval

10. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 +06/+30 interval

11. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 +06/+30 interval

12. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Exp0: CTRLExp15: CONkbf (Bechtold convection scheme) Obs. +06/+30 interval

13. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007

14. Limit of reliable scale of mesoscale modeling

15. PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Some conclusions can be drawn based on the results obtained for the Piedmont case study: QPF of COSMO-Model at 7 km shows a certain insensitivity with respect to change in its physical and numerical formulation; On average, the experimental runs are unable to capture the correct time evolution of the event (not shown here); The main responsible for the COSMO-Model deficiencies in the QPF seems to be impossibility of a proper modelling at 7 km of deep moist convective processes in complex orography areas. Conclusions We were probably asking too much to the model…