1. Regional climate modeling, update on the TFRCD and CORDEX Filippo Giorgi*, Colin Jones** *Abdus Salam ICTP **SMHI JSC-31, Antalya, 15-20 February, 2010

2. Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) Mandate (1 year): Design a framework to –Evaluate and possibly improve RCD models and techniques –Provide a coordinated set of RCD-based projections/predictions for regions worldwide –Facilitate the communication with the impact community and the involvement of the research community from developing countries Membership (December 2008) –F. Giorgi (co-chair), C. Jones (co-chair), J.H. Christensen (DK), P. Duffy (USA), G. Flato (Can), W. Gutowski (USA), B. Hewitson (SAF), Krishna Kumar (In), W.T. Kwon (Kor), R. Laprise (Can.), C. Menendez (AR), J. Murphy (UK), I. Nyang (Sen.) WCRP Connections –WGCM (Giorgi), WGNE (C. Jones) Meetings –Toulouse 11-13 February 2009 –Lund, 4-8 May 2009 –Teleconference, September 14 2009 –Email discussions

3. Uncertainty in regional climate projectionEmis./Conc.(MultipleScenarios) AOGCM Configuration (Multiple AOGCMs) Internal variability (Multiple realizations) RCD Configuration (Multiple models) RCD approach (Multiple RCD methods) Regional cover (Multiple regions) Sources of uncertainty in RCD-based projections The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Systematic Errors (Model eval./impr.)

4. CORDEX Phase I experiment design Model Evaluation Framework Climate Projection Framework ERA-Interim LBC 1989-2007 Multiple AOGCMs RCP4.5, RCP8.5 1951-2100 or timeslices Decadal predictions 1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035 Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa) 50 km grid spacing Regional Analysis Regional Databanks

5. CORDEX domains NARCCAP CLARIS ENSEMBLES RCMIP ARCMIP

6. Other CORDEX activities/issues Formation of regional diagnostics/evaluation teams –Compile suitable metrics for model evaluation –Gather relevant observational datasets Commitment by CMIP5 global modeling groups to provide fields for model nesting for the selected experiments Standardized output format following (as closely as possible) the CMIP5 protocol Creation of CORDEX databanks (DMI, KMA)

7. CORDEX: Progress to date (I) Publication describing the CORDEX framework and PHASE I plan. –Giorgi, Jones, Asrar, WMO Bulletin, July 2009. Creation of a CORDEX web-site and an email server (IA State) –http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/CORD EX.htmlhttp://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/CORD EX.html Distribution of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields (SMHI) Formation of Africa diagnostic team/metrics lead by B. Hewitson (UCT) –Meeting in Cape-Town (UCT) in April 2010 –Should be in touch with WGCM and WGNE

8. CORDEX: Progress to date (II) Numerous CORDEX presentations at major meetings –WCC, EGU, AGU, GREENHOUSE09 etc. Purchase of data server at DMI for CORDEX databank Many groups have expressed interest in participating in CORDEX. Regional CORDEX programs are self-organizing –Med-CORDEX (Coupled ocean-atmosphere RCMs) –Euro-CORDEX (High resolution, dx=10-12 km) Several groups completed or are completing the ERA- Interim driven simulations over one or more domains –ICTP/RegCM, SMHI/RACMO, MPI/REMO, HC/PRECIS, WRF, DMI/HIRHAM, CNRS/Aladin, probably others

10. Precipitation, 1997-2007

12. CORDEX: Progress to date (III) A number of CORDEX presentations planned at EGU2010 regional modeling session –Side meeting to review progress and plans for future simulations WCRP workshop planned in June 2010 in Lille (Fr.) to discuss the treatment of regional climate information in the IPCC AR5 –Participation of both WGI and WGII experts –Next TFRCD meeting planned Workshop planned in spring of 2011 at ICTP for a comprehensive evaluation of the first CORDEX results

13. The TFRCD: Some considerations (I) In general, the CORDEX effort has been very successful –Successful design and implementation of a Phase I plan –Very positive response by the RCD community –Simulations already under way –CORDEX widely advertised at major meetings and conferences The CORDEX effort should definitely be continued and should be overseen by a coordinating body in contact with both WGCM and WGNE However ….

14. The TFRCD: Some considerations (II) Only part of the TFRCD members have been regularly active –Some changes may be required? Still insufficient involvement of the statistical downscaling, impact and developing country communities So far participation to CORDEX has been on a voluntary and cost-free basis –Time may be getting ripe to start “Fund-raising” for CORDEX

15. The future of the TFRCD What should the TFRCD become? –A WGCM-like working group (within a differently structured WCRP?) –A small body within WGCM regularly in contact with WGNE and the JSC –Remain a task force with a focused mandate No consensus reached within the TFRCD –Fear that a small body might prevent a wide-ranging involvement of the scientific community Recommendation: Extend the mandate of the TFRCD for another year until CORDEX develops further and then make a more informed decision

16. THANK YOU