1. Update on Dropout Team Work and Related COPC Action Items Presented by Dr. Bradley Ballish Co-Chair JAG/ODAA and Member of Dropout Team 5 May 2010 COPC Meeting NESDIS

2. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 2 Outline Recent AC scores with dropouts indicated COPC Action Item (AI) 2008-1.5 (real-time monitoring) COPC AI 2009-1.5 (data impact tests) Dropout related projects Summary

3. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 3 00Z 5-day AC Scores in April/May 2010 GFS and FNMOC dropouts- red arrows NCEP GFS was doing well in NH until yesterday

4. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 4 AI 2008-1.5 COPC Action Item 2008-1.5: Develop a monitoring system to analyze differences between the NCEP and FNMOC global models and the ECMWF global model in real- time and make this real-time system available to OPCs as a daily tool. Status Initial operating capability at NCEP by November 2010 Recommend AI remain open

5. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 5 AI 2009-1.5 COPC Action Item 2009-1.5: The dropout team will evaluate the effect of satellite wind, satellite radiance, and aircraft data on model dropouts. They will also invite JCSDA and ECMWF to coordinate in their efforts Status Team is conducting thorough analysis for each dropout occurrence ECMWF is electing to not engage at this time Expecting adjoint code delivery from NASA/Goddard GMAO in June 2010 timeframe Recommend rewriting AI to be more definitive with respect to completion evaluation

6. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 6 Dropout Related projects Data QC and data usage Dropout analysis Analysis and model changes

7. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 7 Dropout Related Projects ProjectStatus Using Quickscat QC FlagsImplemented 2009 Aircraft Track-CheckingWaiting for implementation of NRL code Dictionary CorrectionsUpper air changes in operations 2009 – surface changes being tested for 2010 Observational Data Impact TestsContinuous testing at NCEP plus Langland has started tests Adjoint Estimates of Observation Impact Langland has been running tests and NCEP is awaiting codes from NASA/Goddard Surface Pressure Bias CorrectionsPreliminary testing Data QC and Data Usage

8. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 8 Dropout Related Projects ProjectStatus Aircraft Temperature Bias CorrectionsWaiting for NRL aircraft QC upgrade Satellite Wind QC UpgradesSpeed dependent QC being tested and nearing NCEP implementation – ECMWF filtering rules being reviewed Profile QCPreliminary testing Improved Reject-listPreliminary investigation Use-list for Conventional ObsPreliminary testing Data QC and Data Usage

9. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 9 Dropout Related Projects (cont) Establish Dropout Investigation Procedures Is done and performed for dropout cases Dropout Relation to Data CountsRTDMS extended to 30 days, currently is in NCO testing for June 2010 implementation Dropout Climatology StudiesCommon origin areas found – Langland has shown preferred synoptic patterns ECM RunsJournal publication in progress – High resolution ECMWF input being tested Improved Diagnostics for Analysis Differences for Dropouts Preliminary investigation at both NCEP and FNMOC Dropout Analysis

10. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 10 Dropout Related Projects (cont) GSI Analysis UpgradesContinual testing and implementation show positive impact GFS T574 Model BundleParallel testing for June 2010 implementation Analysis and Model Changes

11. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 11 Summary We think it’s about the data –It’s not a particular class of data –We think it’s quality and metadata for specific observations AI 2009-1.5 needs to be rewritten to be more specific To date, few of the team’s efforts have led to operational implementation; but we believe FY10-FY11 will have accelerated implementations related to address dropout issues

12. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 12 Background Slides

13. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 13 Interagency Participants NCEP/EMC –Jordan Alpert –Yangrong Ling –DaNa Carlis NCEP/NCO –Bradley Ballish –Krishna Kumar –Joe Carr NCEP/HPC –James Cisco NRL –Rolf Langland FNMOC –Chuck Skupniewicz NESDIS –Kathy Kelly –Tom Renkevens The NCEP dropout team meets weekly with the EMC director, John Derber and sometimes with the JCSDA director and reports quarterly to the NCEP director

14. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 14 Latest Dropout Team Findings (continued) For more information on dropout research, see the reports presented at the AMS meetings: http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_142644.htm http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_142649.htm http://ams.confex.com/ams/23WAF19NWP/techprogram/paper_154268.htm http://ams.confex.com/ams/23WAF19NWP/techprogram/paper_154282.htm

15. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 15 AI 2009-1.5 We have performed impact tests shutting off major classes or sub-classes of data such as aircraft, satellite winds and satellite radiances for dropout cases –Satellite radiance data are usually helping skill –Satellite winds are too often hurting skill –Aircraft data are not showing significant impact We are working towards more precise, selective data filtering and usage: –Rules for filtering satellite winds like ECMWF’s –Speed dependent QC of satellite winds –Better tuning of the use of satellite radiances –Improved aircraft track-checking QC –Working with Australia and South Africa to get their group track- check errors fixed –Aircraft temperature and surface pressure data bias correction –Improved reject-list criterion

16. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 16 AI 2009-1.5 (continued) The dropout team is expecting adjoint codes from the NASA/Goddard/GMAO GSI and their global model that produce estimates of how every observation helps or hurts the forecast skill We will determine if smart statistics from these promising new tools will give us more precision on how to better use observations, such as: –Satellite radiance data impact estimates by type, channel, surface conditions (water, ice, etc.) and more –Possibly better rules on filtering of satellite winds –Improved reject-list criterion –Possibly better analysis of dropout cases

17. May 5, 2010 COPC Dropout Update 17 AI 2008-1.5 Unofficial Action Plan (Revised) NCEP will generate warnings on a restricted website when the GFS global analysis has extreme localized differences from ECMWF analyses on a 1x1 degree grid NCEP will develop a real-time warning system to alert us when the GFS global model 5-day forecast height correlations with the ECMWF exceed normal limits, which will give an early warning of a possible dropout NCEP website will have graphics to allow staff to study the divergence in forecasts in real time and show likely analysis problem areas