1. Making it Through High School: A Life Table Analysis Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, Charles Hirschman University of Washington and Joseph Willhoft, OSPI, State of Washington UW-BHS Project Workshop October 19, 2007

2. National estimates from the Census Bureau Cohorts from the early-1960s

3. Figure 2. Students enrolled, by Grade Level: Averages for Academic Years from 1997-98 to 2004-05.

4. Research Questions What is the high school completion rate? If exiting is a problem, when are students leaving school? What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

5. Administrative School Records Enrolled students: (courses & grades) Typically tabulated in aggregate data Collaborative with school district research office Possible to match students across years Unique student ID and birthday Major limitation Can not distinguish dropouts and out of district transfers Defined universe First time 9 th graders in school district Track for 6 years and measure “net exits” 4 cohorts (entered 9 th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)

6. Research Questions—Part One What is the high school completion rate? When are students most likely to drop out of school? What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

7. Initial Cohort : 1,000 students enrolled in 9th on-track not enrolled on-track retained not enrolled on-track retained not enrolled on-track retained not enrolled 457 on-time Graduates 109 Late/Possible Graduates b The Process of School Progression and Attrition 434 Net Exits Drop Outs/ a Transfers a GRADUATION STATUSEND OF 2ND YREND OF 3RD YREND OF 4TH YR END OF 1ST YR a)Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers). b)Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.

8. Initial Cohort : 1,000 students enrolled in 9th 189 not enrolled The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4 9 th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99). END OF 2ND YREND OF 1ST YR 140 retained 671 on-track 70 not enrolled 930 on-track.07.93.72.14. 84.14.02

9. Initial Cohort: 1,000 students enrolled in 9th 930 on-track.93 70 not enrolled 671 on-track.07.72 140 retained 189 not enrolled.14 534 on-track 303 not enrolled.77.54.11.35.12.11 493 on-track.86 100 retained 407 not enrolled 457 on-time Graduates.92.40 109 Late/Possible Graduates b.09.05.41.19.07.64.02 The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4 9 th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99)..84.92.96 434 Net Exits Drop Outs/ a Transfers a.98.14.02.07.01.04.01 GRADUATION STATUSEND OF 2ND YREND OF 3RD YREND OF 4TH YR END OF 1ST YR a)Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers). b)Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate..01.34.02 163 retained

10. Who are the ‘exiters’? Two types: Dropouts Out of district out-transfers Unable to differentiate at individual level Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation techniques We estimate ~3/5 th of the ‘exiters’ either: 1) dropout or 2) transfer and eventually dropout.

11. For 4 Cohorts of 9 th graders (1996-98), Percentage of Students that Graduated at end of 4 years (N=6,553) Non-Graduates: 31%Graduates: ~69% 16% Dropout 16% Transfer- Dropout

12. Research Questions—Part Two What is the high school completion rate? If drop-out is a problem, when are students leaving school? What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

13. Percent Distribution of the Dependent Variables

14. Independent Variables Background: “Risk Factors” Background: “Risk Factors” Race/Ethnicity Race/Ethnicity Gender Gender Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas) Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas) Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level) Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level) Transferred into district for 9 th grade Transferred into district for 9 th grade Educational Experiences: Educational Experiences: Over-age (indicator of prior retention) Over-age (indicator of prior retention) 9 th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular 9 th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular First semester 9 th grade GPA First semester 9 th grade GPA

15. Four Year High School Graduation by 9 th Grade 1 st Semester GPA 21%30%32% 2% 16% a a Percent of Overall Population

16. 9 th Grade Failure Strongest predictor of high school completion 9 th grade failure has an effect net of GPA in 8 th 35% of all student fail at least one class during their 1 st semester of high school 37% of all students have a GPA lt 2.0 High levels of failure are pervasive Not limited to select sub-populations Failure occurs across all class types (i.e. not limited to ‘hard’ classes)

17. Multivariate Analysis Results Background and Educational Factors operate in fashion consistent with prior research e.g. Poverty, Bad Neighborhoods, and Transferring increase risk of not completing high school Most risk factors, but not all are mediated by school experiences, especially freshman marks E.g. Hispanics have net disadvantage E.g. SES “explains” most of African American disadvantage Early failure (9 th grade) is key predictor, mostly independent of risk factors

18. Heuristic Model of High School Completion

19. Concluding Thoughts ~7 of 10 of students graduate from HS in 4 yrs 46% graduate from this district (confirmed) Another ~23% transfer and graduate (estimate) High school attrition is a process Begins before entering school families, neighborhoods, & poverty In the first few years many students fall behind and, subsequently, exit school. Some dropout—others transfer, then dropout Transition to High School (9 th Grade) is a major challenge Placement and 9 th Grade GPA are key factors

20. Thank you! Paper available upon request: Contact Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej nickpc@u.washington.edu Or visit our project website: http://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/

21. On-time high school graduation. On-time high school graduation. Delayed Graduation: 5 or 6 years Delayed Graduation: 5 or 6 years Still Enrolled (l 0 – life table survival) Still Enrolled (l 0 – life table survival) 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 9 th grade 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 9 th grade Possible Dependent Variables of High School Graduation

22. How many student graduate? ~46% of incoming 9 th graders graduate from same district in 4 years. ~46% of incoming 9 th graders graduate from same district in 4 years. Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69% Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69% Most of the exiting occurs within first 2 years Most of the exiting occurs within first 2 years Students tend to fall behind and then exit. Students tend to fall behind and then exit. It is a process—not an event It is a process—not an event

23. Four Year High School Graduation by Gender 52% a 49% a Percent of Overall Population

24. Four Year High School Graduation by Family Income 58% a 42% a Percent of Overall Population

25. Four Year High School Graduation by Race/Ethnicity 58% a a Percent of Overall Population 20%15%5%2%

26. Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade Retention 76% a 24% a Percent of Overall Population

27. Four Year High School Graduation By Transferred into District for 9 th Grade 85% a 15% a Percent of Overall Population

28. Four Year High School Graduation by Race/Ethnicity 58% a a Percent of Overall Population 20%15%5%2%

29. Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade Retention 76% a 24% a Percent of Overall Population

30. Four Year High School Graduation by 9 th Grade English Class 18%8%3% 69% a a Percent of Overall Population