1. 10-2 Experimental Probability Course 3 Warm Up Warm Up Problem of the Day Problem of the Day Lesson Presentation Lesson Presentation

2. Warm Up Use the table to find the probability of each event. 1. A or B occurring 2. C not occurring 3. A, D, or E occurring 0.494 0.742 0.588 Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

3. Problem of the Day A spinner has 4 colors: red, blue, yellow, and green. The green and yellow sections are equal in size. If the probability of not spinning red or blue is 40%, what is the probability of spinning green? 20% Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

4. Learn to estimate probability using experimental methods. Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

5. Vocabulary experimental probability Insert Lesson Title Here Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

6. Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability In experimental probability, the likelihood of an event is estimated by repeating an experiment many times and observing the number of times the event happens. That number is divided by the total number of trials. The more the experiment is repeated, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be. number of times the event occurs total number of trials probability 

7. A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws. Example 1A: Estimating the Probability of an Event Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The probability of drawing a red marble is about 0.3, or 30%. probability  number of red marbles drawn total number of marbles drawn 15 50 = Estimate the probability of drawing a red marble.

8. A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 100 draws. Check It Out: Example 1A Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The probability of drawing a purple ticket is about 0.55, or 55%. probability  number of purple tickets drawn total number of tickets drawn 55 100 = Estimate the probability of drawing a purple ticket. OutcomePurpleOrangeBrown Draw552223

9. A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws. Example 1B: Estimating the Probability of an Event Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The probability of drawing a green marble is about 0.24, or 24%. probability  number of green marbles drawn total number of marbles drawn 12 50 = Estimate the probability of drawing a green marble.

10. A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 100 draws. Check It Out: Example 1B Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The probability of drawing a brown ticket is about 0.23, or 23%. probability  number of brown tickets drawn total number of tickets drawn 23 100 = Estimate the probability of drawing a brown ticket. OutcomePurpleOrangeBrown Draw552223

11. A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws. Example 1C: Estimating the Probability of an Event Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The probability of drawing a yellow marble is about 0.46, or 46%. probability  number of yellow marbles drawn total number of marbles drawn 23 50 = Estimate the probability of drawing a yellow marble.

12. A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 1000 draws. Check It Out: Example 1C Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The probability of drawing a blue ticket is about.112, or 11.2%. probability  number of blue tickets drawn total number of tickets drawn 112 1000 = Estimate the probability of drawing a blue ticket. OutcomeRedBluePink Draw285112603

13. Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Knights will win their next game. Example 2: Sports Application Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

14. Example 2 Continued Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The Knights are more likely to win their next game than the Huskies. number of wins total number of games probability probability for a Huskies win  138 79  0.572 146 probability for a Knights win  90  0.616

15. Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Cougars will win their next game. Check It Out: Example 2 Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

16. Check It Out: Example 2 Continued Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability The Huskies are more likely to win their next game than the Cougars. number of wins total number of games probability probability for a Huskies win  138 79  0.572 150 probability for a Cougars win  85  0.567

17. Lesson Quiz: Part I 1. Of 425, 234 seniors were enrolled in a math course. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected senior is enrolled in a math course. 2. Mason made a hit 34 out of his last 125 times at bat. Estimate the probability that he will make a hit his next time at bat. 0.27, or 27% 0.55, or 55% Insert Lesson Title Here Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability

18. Lesson Quiz: Part II 3. Christina polled 176 students about their favorite ice cream flavor. 63 students’ favorite flavor is vanilla and 40 students’ favorite flavor is strawberry. Compare the probability of a student’s liking vanilla to a student’s liking strawberry. Insert Lesson Title Here about 36% to about 23% Course 3 10-2 Experimental Probability