1. Lucinda Jacobs, Ph.D. Marine Sciences in Alaska 2006 Symposium January 23, 2006 2005/6 Assessment of Resources and Services Injured by EVOS

2. Overview  Approach  1994 Restoration Plan  Recovery objectives v. recovery goal  Current recovery status of resources and services  Conceptual exposure model  Initial resource summary/conclusions  Next steps

3. Approach  Review and validate lingering oil assessment  Assemble reports and studies relevant to EVOS  Conduct initial evaluation of resources classified as “recovering” and “not recovered” in terms of: Residual effects from original spill Residual effects from original spill Current exposure to lingering EVO Current exposure to lingering EVO Other factors influencing injury, recovery rate, or population Other factors influencing injury, recovery rate, or population  In consultation with experts, conduct more detailed evaluation of all resources and services classified as “recovering”, “not recovered” and “unknown”

4. 1994 Restoration Plan – Blueprint for Restoration  Restoration efforts in PWS guided by 1994 Plan  Five categories of restoration activity 1. General restoration (action) 2. Habitat protection and acquisition (protection) 3. Monitoring and research (understand and track recovery) 4. Restoration reserve (save for the future) 5. Public information, science management, and administration  Injured resources/services limited to: Population-level injury, or Population-level injury, or Continued chronic effects Continued chronic effects

5. Recovery Goals and Objectives  Goal: Recovery of all injured resources and services, sustained by healthy and productive ecosystem  Overall Objective: Return to condition that would have existed had the spill not occurred  Resource- or service-specific Objective: A measurable condition that signals recovery. A yardstick against which success of program is measured

6. Recovery Goals and Objectives- Issues  Not all recovery objectives are measurable Example – “a return to pre-spill conditions” Example – “a return to pre-spill conditions”  Not all recovery objectives are true to the overall program objective (a return to conditions that would have existed had the spill not occurred) Example – “stable or increasing population trends” Example – “stable or increasing population trends”  Sometimes information about a resource is limited Example – resources currently classified as unknown Example – resources currently classified as unknown

7. Resource Injury Status - 2002 Birds Common loon - NR Cormorants (3 spp) - NR Harlequin duck - NR Pigeon guillemot - NR Marbled murrelet - R Kittlitz’s murrelet - U Mammals Harbor seals - NR Killer whales (AB pod) - R Sea otter - R Fish Pacific herring -NR Cutthroat trout - U Rockfish – U Dolly Varden - U Services Recreation/tourism - R Commercial fishing - R Passive uses - R Subsistence - R Media/Oiling Sediments –R Wilderness areas - R Communities Intertidal comm. -R Subtidal comm. – U Clams – R Mussels - R

8. Conceptual Exposure Model – Food Web Relationships

9. Sediment  Initial impact 40 to 45 percent of 11M gal. oil washed ashore 40 to 45 percent of 11M gal. oil washed ashore Light to heavy deposits on 583 km of shoreline (12 percent of 5,000 km of PWS shoreline) Light to heavy deposits on 583 km of shoreline (12 percent of 5,000 km of PWS shoreline)  Recovery Objective No significant residue of EVO on shorelines (intertidal and subtidal) No significant residue of EVO on shorelines (intertidal and subtidal)  2002 Classification – Recovering Residue declining but still significant Residue declining but still significant

10. Sediment  Nature and extent of lingering EVO (2001) Located in the intertidal Located in the intertidal 10 acres surface (not bioavailable) 10 acres surface (not bioavailable) 19 acre subsurface (limited bioaccessability) 19 acre subsurface (limited bioaccessability)  Other sources of PAHs in PWS 1964 earthquake 1964 earthquake Oil shale Oil shale Human activities Human activities  Enzyme induction (CYP1A) PAHs and PCBs induce CYP1A activity PAHs and PCBs induce CYP1A activity Lingering EVO is the predominant cause of enzyme induction in PWS Lingering EVO is the predominant cause of enzyme induction in PWS

11. Sediment  Summary/Conclusions Small deposits of lingering EVO Small deposits of lingering EVO Patchy distribution Patchy distribution Limited ecological exposure Limited ecological exposure  Uncertainties in: Loss rate Loss rate Spatial extent Spatial extent  Recommendations Define “significant” in terms of weight of evidence (e.g., spatial extent, toxicity, potential for resource exposure) Define “significant” in terms of weight of evidence (e.g., spatial extent, toxicity, potential for resource exposure) Monitor loss to confirm recovery Monitor loss to confirm recovery

12. Sea Otter  Initial impact – estimated 40 percent loss in spill area  Recovery Objectives Population in oiled areas returns to pre-spill levels and distribution Population in oiled areas returns to pre-spill levels and distribution Biochemical indicators of exposure similar in oiled areas and unoiled areas Biochemical indicators of exposure similar in oiled areas and unoiled areas  2002 Classification – Recovering Elevated biomarker (CYP1A) Elevated biomarker (CYP1A) Reduced pup survival Reduced pup survival Population surveys Population surveys

13. Sea Otter  Summary/Conclusions Exposed to lingering EVO through foraging Exposed to lingering EVO through foraging Individual may dig up to several thousand intertidal pits/year Individual may dig up to several thousand intertidal pits/year Elevated CYP1A 1996 – 1998, 2001, 2002 Elevated CYP1A 1996 – 1998, 2001, 2002 No elevated CYP1A in 2003 and 2005 No elevated CYP1A in 2003 and 2005 Population in PWS recovered Population in PWS recovered Subpopulation in N. Knight Island remains low Subpopulation in N. Knight Island remains low  Recommendations Possible need for additional population modeling Possible need for additional population modeling Possible need to assess other areas similar to NKI Possible need to assess other areas similar to NKI

14. Killer Whale – AB Pod  Initial impact 40 percent loss of AB pod in 1989 and 1990 40 percent loss of AB pod in 1989 and 1990  Recovery Objective Return to pre-spill number; 36 individuals Return to pre-spill number; 36 individuals  2002 Classification – Recovering Increased from 22 to 26 in 2001 Increased from 22 to 26 in 2001

15. Killer Whale  Summary/Conclusions No exposure to or impacts from lingering EVO No exposure to or impacts from lingering EVO Residual impacts from original spill Residual impacts from original spill  Long lived, slow reproduction  Females lost Population modeling predicts faster recovery if no loss of females Population modeling predicts faster recovery if no loss of females Pod currently numbers 27 (up from a low of 22) Pod currently numbers 27 (up from a low of 22)  Recommendations Continue to track population Continue to track population Reassess killer whale AT1 population Reassess killer whale AT1 population

16. Harbor Seal  Harbor seals in decline prior to spill  Initial impact – 302 individuals lost  Recovery Objective Stable or increasing population Stable or increasing population  2002 Classification – Not recovering

17. Harbor Seal  Summary/Conclusions By 1990, rate of decline in oiled = unoiled areas By 1990, rate of decline in oiled = unoiled areas No exposure to lingering oil No exposure to lingering oil Continuing decline in population Continuing decline in population Current condition of population unrelated to EVOS Current condition of population unrelated to EVOS  Recommendation Reconsider recovery objective Reconsider recovery objective Research needed to better understand cause of decline Research needed to better understand cause of decline

18. Pacific Herring  Initial impact Most life stages exposed (eggs, larvae, juveniles) Most life stages exposed (eggs, larvae, juveniles) In 1992, 1989 year class one of smallest ever to return to spawn In 1992, 1989 year class one of smallest ever to return to spawn  Recovery Objective When the next highly successful year class is recruited into the population When the next highly successful year class is recruited into the population When other indicators of population health (biomass, size-at-age, and disease expression) are within normal bounds When other indicators of population health (biomass, size-at-age, and disease expression) are within normal bounds  2002 Classification – Not recovering

19. Pacific Herring  Summary/Conclusions Population depressed Population depressed Negligible exposure to lingering oil Negligible exposure to lingering oil Residual impacts from original spill unknown Residual impacts from original spill unknown Little scientific evidence linking condition of population to EVOS Little scientific evidence linking condition of population to EVOS Likely due to high population density, poor nutrition, epidemic viral and fungal infection Likely due to high population density, poor nutrition, epidemic viral and fungal infection  Recommend a more holistic approach to understanding herring issues Fisheries management and population dynamics Fisheries management and population dynamics Role of prey, predators, and microbial agents Role of prey, predators, and microbial agents Climatic factors Climatic factors

20. Harlequin Duck  Initial impact : Lost 3 – 12 percent of the population in PWS  Recovery Objectives Demographics return to pre-spill levels Demographics return to pre-spill levels Biochemical indicators of exposure similar in oiled areas and unoiled areas Biochemical indicators of exposure similar in oiled areas and unoiled areas  2002 Classification – Not recovering Elevated biomarker (CYP1A) Elevated biomarker (CYP1A) Lower winter survival of adult females Lower winter survival of adult females Population surveys Population surveys

21. Harlequin Duck  Summary/Conclusions HD exposed to lingering EVO through foraging HD exposed to lingering EVO through foraging Some ongoing exposure through 2005 (CYP1A) Some ongoing exposure through 2005 (CYP1A) Population stable; no differences between oiled and unoiled areas Population stable; no differences between oiled and unoiled areas Demographics similar to other areas except slightly lower proportion of females in oiled areas Demographics similar to other areas except slightly lower proportion of females in oiled areas Harlequin duck nearly recovered from EVOS Harlequin duck nearly recovered from EVOS  Recommendations Continue population monitoring and CYP1A assessment until convergence Continue population monitoring and CYP1A assessment until convergence

22. Sea Birds  Initial Impact Of 1,000K seabirds in spill area, estimated 100K to 200K killed by oiling Of 1,000K seabirds in spill area, estimated 100K to 200K killed by oiling  Recovery Objective Pigeon Guillemot, Marbled Murrelet – populations stable or increasing Pigeon Guillemot, Marbled Murrelet – populations stable or increasing Cormorants, common loon - population return to pre-spill levels Cormorants, common loon - population return to pre-spill levels  2002 Recovery Status Recovering – MM Recovering – MM Not recovering – PG, C spp, CL Not recovering – PG, C spp, CL

23. Seabirds  Summary/Conclusions Minimal ongoing exposure to lingering EVO Minimal ongoing exposure to lingering EVO CYP1A no longer elevated in PG CYP1A no longer elevated in PG Interpretation of population trends limited by data variability and statistical uncertainty Interpretation of population trends limited by data variability and statistical uncertainty Habitat use studies do not directly address population trends Habitat use studies do not directly address population trends Other stressors likely explain population declines (PG, MM) Other stressors likely explain population declines (PG, MM) Likely that seabirds no longer adversely affected by EVOS Likely that seabirds no longer adversely affected by EVOS

24. Seabirds  Recommendations Population modeling could help to better understand seabird trends Population modeling could help to better understand seabird trends Develop recovery objective relevant to long-term goal (e.g., weight of evidence) Develop recovery objective relevant to long-term goal (e.g., weight of evidence) Research needed to better understand PG and MM population declines Research needed to better understand PG and MM population declines Consider actions to minimize other losses (e.g., gill- net entanglement of MM) Consider actions to minimize other losses (e.g., gill- net entanglement of MM)

25. Intertidal Communities  Initial impact – Light to heavy oiling on 583 km of PWS shoreline; mortality; bioaccumulation; loss of habitat. Also effects from high pressure hot water treatment  Recovery Objectives Important species (e.g., Fucus) are reestablished at rocky shorelines Important species (e.g., Fucus) are reestablished at rocky shorelines Differences in community composition (oiled v. unoiled) are no longer apparent Differences in community composition (oiled v. unoiled) are no longer apparent Intertidal and nearshore habitat provide adequate and uncontaminated food for top predators Intertidal and nearshore habitat provide adequate and uncontaminated food for top predators  2002 Classification – Recovering Presence of residual oil Presence of residual oil Lack of full recovery for specific populations (e.g., Fucus) Lack of full recovery for specific populations (e.g., Fucus)

26. Intertidal Communities  Summary/Conclusions Lingering EVO still present in intertidal Lingering EVO still present in intertidal In 1996, monitoring demonstrated high degree of recovery, with residual impacts to some populations In 1996, monitoring demonstrated high degree of recovery, with residual impacts to some populations Focused study in 2004 showed no effect of oiling on benthic infauna communities (some localized toxicity) Focused study in 2004 showed no effect of oiling on benthic infauna communities (some localized toxicity) Likely that recovery objectives are achieved for PWS as a whole Likely that recovery objectives are achieved for PWS as a whole

27. Clams  Initial impact – oiling and high pressure hot water washing caused mortality, community alterations  Recovery Objective Comparable population and productivity measured in oiled and unoiled areas Comparable population and productivity measured in oiled and unoiled areas  2002 Classification – Recovering Continued differences in clam populations among unoiled, oiled-and-untreated, and oiled- and-treated areas Continued differences in clam populations among unoiled, oiled-and-untreated, and oiled- and-treated areas

28. Clams  Summary/Conclusions Studies focused on abundance and diversity of clams Studies focused on abundance and diversity of clams Oiled-and-untreated communities same as unoiled communities Oiled-and-untreated communities same as unoiled communities High pressure hot water treatment had long- lasting impacts on clam communities High pressure hot water treatment had long- lasting impacts on clam communities Diminished impacts, but still evident in 1996 Diminished impacts, but still evident in 1996 Focused study in 2002 show that environmental conditions may be as important as treatment in explaining residual effects Focused study in 2002 show that environmental conditions may be as important as treatment in explaining residual effects Likely that recovery objective is achieved for PWS as a whole Likely that recovery objective is achieved for PWS as a whole

29. Mussels  Initial impact – Heavy oiling of mussels and mussel beds, bioaccumulation  Recovery Objective Oil in mussels at background concentration Oil in mussels at background concentration Mussels do not contaminate their predators Mussels do not contaminate their predators  2002 Classification – Recovering Concerns about well-protected mussel beds (limited recovery rate) Concerns about well-protected mussel beds (limited recovery rate) Concerns about recontamination of cleaned beds Concerns about recontamination of cleaned beds Concerns about sites where oil is in underlying sediment Concerns about sites where oil is in underlying sediment

30. Mussels  Summary/Conclusions Mussels important prey resource Mussels important prey resource By 1995, TPAH > background in 6/98 beaches studied By 1995, TPAH > background in 6/98 beaches studied By 1999, TPAH generally below background throughout PWS, 6/7 restored mussel beds at background By 1999, TPAH generally below background throughout PWS, 6/7 restored mussel beds at background TPAH in mussels immediately adjacent to lingering EVO not elevated TPAH in mussels immediately adjacent to lingering EVO not elevated Unlikely that TPAH in mussel tissue poses an unacceptable risk to non-human predators Unlikely that TPAH in mussel tissue poses an unacceptable risk to non-human predators  Recommendations Refine recovery objectives (e.g., define background percentile) Refine recovery objectives (e.g., define background percentile)

31. Next Steps  Report on initial findings in February  Ongoing work with experts; more detailed assessment of resources and services  Recommendations to Trustee Council in April