1. Environmental and Societal Impacts Group Emergency Management Higher Education Conference Seth McGinnis http://www.esig.ucar.edu

2. 1. Use and Value of Weather and Climate Information for Decision Making 2. The Science of Weather and Climate Impact Assessment 3. Earth System Education: Frameworks and Informatics ESIG’s Major Research Themes

3. Flood Damage in the United States ESIG and CU scientists evaluated NWS flood damage estimates from 1926-2000 and developed guidelines for using the data. The character of damaging floods varies greatly from region to region. http://www.flooddamagedata.org/

4. Analysis with extreme value theory suggests that storms with high damage are not as unusual as conventional analyses would indicate Anticipating Hurricane Damages Statistical tools and tutorial available at: http://www.esig.ucar.edu/extremevalues/extreme.html

5. Climate-Related Flashpoints A system for categorizing dangerous situations and anticipating characteristics that lead to disaster. http://www.esig.ucar.edu/flash 1998-2002 precipitation anomalies 9899 0001 02 +20 -20 Southwest Central Asia

6. Wildfire Initiative Program development with a focus on societal risk assessment tools, risk communication, and education. (In progress) http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/wfc/

7. Superstorm ’93 Project The 1993 East Coast extreme snow event was well forecast, but the impact was still extreme. The goal of the Superstorm’93 Project is to understand why.

8. Disaster Dynamics Educational goals – Decision making under uncertainty – Complex systems – Understanding design decisions – Fostering collaboration – Significance of the recovery phase Approach - family of educational role-playing simulation games – Integrated face to face and computer tools – Engagement of gaming Player Interactions Supporting InformationSimulations/Models http://swiki.esig.ucar.edu/dd

9. Current Prototype A computer-assisted board game (not a simulation) Theme: urban development with natural hazard Players take on roles with different goals Interaction is oriented towards negotiation and evaluation Facilitator support: record of play, system control

10. Example of Play Evaluation – data views, analysis, and triggered information Proposal cards Polling and Negotiation Voting Update – computer model of growth Random events – dilemmas and disasters Special “Recovery Turn” 4 to 6 players 45 minute block of play

11. We need help! How much class time would you be willing to dedicate to playing a game like this? Would you use it during lecture or a lab? Would it be useful for the game to be available outside of class? What kind of computer resources are typically available to you and your students? In large classes, would you rather break the class up into multiple independent games, or have the players form teams? What questions do you want this game to address? Is there any specific content (e.g., flooding) you want to see included? What kinds of support materials for the instructor do you need? Are you interested in collaborating or beta-testing? Questions we need answers to: http://swiki.esig.ucar.edu/dd/questionnaire