1. Introduction to Hazards Risk Management
Session 2 Slide Deck
Session 2
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2. Session Objectives
2.1 Introduce the concept of risk, and explain how and why individuals and societies continue to face exposure to a range of hazards
2.2 Explain how and why the nature of hazards is changing over time, and why an understanding of these changes is important to the management of risk
2.3 Use open class discussion to consider the definitions related to hazards risk management and reach agreement on specific definitions that will be used throughout the course.
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3. Risk An unavoidable aspect of life
As individuals, we are responsible for managing risk
Mandatory management
Elective management
Societies face risk collectively
Large scale hazards
Managed as a society
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4. Risk versus Benefit
Risk exposure typically in pursuit of some associated benefit
Communities mitigate risk in order to be able to continue to receive the benefit without having to face adverse events
Reduce the chances an event will happen
Reduce the impacts from events
Management has followed needs, wants, and capacities (though rarely meets demand)
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5. Disaster Still Happen The nature of communities is changing
The nature of hazards is constantly changing
Despite measures taken - disaster still happen
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6. Nature of Hazards
Hazard risk management process is ongoing because of changes in the:
Severity of events
Geographic area affected
Number of people affected
Value of property affected
Frequency of events
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7. Trends We try to understand: Trends are indicators
What kinds of changes are occurring
Why are they occurring
Trends are indicators
Provide clues about risk
Tell us how risk is changing over time
How often
How damaging
May be incremental or extreme
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8. Trend Forces Changes in How Often Disasters Occur (Disaster Frequency)
Increases in hazard occurrences
Increases in human activity
Changes in What Happens as a Result of Disasters (Disaster Consequences)
Changes in hazard attributes
Changes in human activity
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9. Reasons for Change Population growth Land pressure Economic growth
Technological innovation
Social expectations
Growing interdependencies and complexities of systems and society
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10. Recent Trends The number of people affected by disasters is rising.
Overall, disasters are becoming less deadly.
Overall, disasters are becoming more costly.
The number of disasters is increasing each year.
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11. Common Lexicon Terminology a key building block of a profession
Allows communication
Minimizes confusion
Allows people to collaborate
Many terms have multiple definitions outside the profession that differ
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12. 2 Communication Theorems
50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings
The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning
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13. Lexicon in Emergency Management
Professionals draw from a wide range of backgrounds
Many terms are used in daily speech with different meaning
Risk
Disaster
Safe
Risk managers must understand and be aware of all interpretations
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14. Hazard Rooted in the concept of uncertainty/chance
Any event, object, situation, or other condition that has the potential to cause or result in some negative impact inclusive of:
Fatalities, injuries, or psychological impacts
Livelihood hardships (e.g., unemployment, decreased quality of life)
Property damage
Infrastructure damage
Agricultural loss
Damage to the environment
Interruption of business
Other types of harm or loss
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15. Hazards (Cont’d)
Defined according to a dangerous condition, material, event, or other factor
River vs. Flood
Volcano vs. Volcanic Eruption
Hazard is not a disaster, it causes a disaster
E.g., an earthquake is a hazard, not a disaster
Hazards exist on personal/community levels
Emergency managers concerned with events that cause community-wide or capacity exceeding impacts
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16. Risk
Very common term, used in almost every profession with different connotations
May carry positive and/or negative implications
Risk always negative in emergency management
A measure of hazard severity or seriousness
Risk = Likelihood X Consequence
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17. Hazard Likelihood
The chance that a particular hazard will result in an actual event or situation
Expressed as a probability or a frequency
Probability: tells one how likely it is an event will occur at least once within a given time period
Frequency: Tells how frequently an event will occur within a given time period
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18. Hazard Likelihood
Measure of the effect that an event caused by the particular hazard would have on people, property, the environment, the economy, or aesthetics, other factors
Directly related to the size or magnitude of the event
Cannot generalize consequences over a hazard, rather we must consider different magnitudes
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19. Disaster
Emergency event of such great magnitude that one or more response requirements cannot be met
UN definition: a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources
Disaster is relative to response capacity, and grow in intensity as progressively larger response units are overwhelmed
Disasters may be sudden-onset or creeping
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20. Catastrophe Hazard events exist on a severity continuum
Community preparedness dictates disaster
Incident
Emergency
Disaster
Catastrophe
Catastrophe - a hazard event is of such great magnitude that its consequences overwhelm the response capacities of all administrative levels from local to Federal
Only 1 ESF need be insufficient
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21. Vulnerability
Likelihood and consequence values of risk are dictated by:
What is at risk
How vulnerable it is
Risk from equal events differs from place to place because of vulnerability
Vulnerability factors:
Things that are done in the community
Attributes of the community itself
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22. Vulnerability (Cont’d)
Vulnerability influences the risk equation
Vulnerability is the propensity to incur loss
Resilient is the opposite of vulnerable
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23. Safe Goal of risk management is to reduce risk
Desire to reduce risk to ‘safe’ levels
Safety does not always mean risk is eliminated
Safe is the best of the available alternatives, not best of the alternatives we would hope to have available
Must measure benefits of risk existence with the loss of those benefits through mitigation
Few communities have enough resources to reduce all of their hazards to acceptable levels
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24. Hazards Risk Management
An involved process that involves input from many different stakeholders
Requires more than simply knowing how to reduce one or more particular hazard types
‘Whole community’ understanding
Many different processes, but the concepts are essentially the same in all risk management systems
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25. HRM Requirements Understand the community
Understand the different hazards
Understand vulnerability
Understand hazard likelihoods
Understand hazard consequences
Compare (and rank) risks
Determine mitigation options
Make a plan or strategy
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26. HRP Approach
Step 1 - Build Support, Form Partnerships, and Involve the Public
Step 2 - Establish a Context for Risk Management by Understanding the Community
Step 3 - Identify Hazards
Step 4 - Scope Vulnerability and Understand Capacity
Step 5 - Analyze Risk
Step 6 - Assess Risk
Step 7 - Identify and Assess Risk Reduction Measures
Step 8 - Select, Implement, and Support Risk Reduction Measures
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