2. Gaseous Emissions from Irish Agriculture Trevor Donnellan FAPRI-Ireland Partnership Teagasc Dublin

3. Outline Background Methodology Analysis to date (European model)

4. Background FAPRI-Ireland Partnersip founded in 1997 Partners – Teagasc (Irish Agriculture & Food Development Authority) – Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) (Missouri, USA) – National Universities of Ireland – Partner project in Northern Ireland Key Aim – To project future levels of agricultural income – Under various policy scenarios

5. Macroeconomic conditions (exogenous) Policy conditions (exogenous) Market conditions (exogenous and endogenous) Events in other agriculture sectors (endogenous) Activity data projections

6. FAPRI-Ireland Partnership FAPRI World Model FAPRI EU Model Ireland Model

7. FAPRI-Ireland model Multi-product modelling system Supply and demand inter-relationships Econometric and synthetic equations Partial equilibrium, dynamic model Projections of activity levels – Animal numbers, land use, input use Allows projection of gaseous emissions

8. Cereals Inputs Poultry Pigs Sheep Beef Dairy Milk Output Values Beef Output Values Sheep Output Values Poultry Output Values Pig Output Values Poultry Meal Prices Poultry Numbers Poultry Prices Dairy Cow Numbers Dairy Meal Price Cereal Prices, Production, Value & Hectares Cattle Feed Price Cattle Numbers Cattle Feed Price Pig Numbers Pig Meal Price Beef Cow Numbers Dairy Cow Numbers Commodity Model Inter Linkages

9. FAPRI-Ireland model Historical data collection Equation specification (Y =  +  1 X 1 +  2 X 2 ) Equations estimation Models assembling in spreadsheets Model solving Expert review

10. Total Milk Production Liquid Milk Butter Cream Cheese WMP Choc. Crumb Manufacturing Milk Price Liquid Milk Price Domestic Sales Intervention Domestic Sales Exports Milk Output Milk Output per CowNo. Dairy Cows Milk Fed to Livestock On Farm Human Use SMP Casein Manufacturing Milk Misc. Prods. Liquid Consumption Milk Delivered Dairy model

11. Calculation of GHG Emissions Livestock Numbers Input Application Enterprise Area Conversion Coefficients Methane Emissions Nitrous Oxide Emissions Conversion Coefficients GHGs in Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

12. Calculation of Ammonia Emissions Livestock Production Manure Conversion Coefficients Manure Storage Practices Crop Production Fertiliser Application Inorganic Fertiliser Ammonia Release Pure Ammonia

13. Projections Baseline  Current policy remains in place  Current international agreements in place  No new policy Scenario  Alternative policy  Method of differences

14. Results to date Emissions work to date Baseline projections 2002 & 2003 Scenarios – MTR Proposals – Luxembourg MTR Agreement including various beef decoupling options

15. Sample Output Similar projections are produced for other livestock and crops

16. Sample Output

17. Conclusions Emissions decline under Baseline policy But….. Ag. Policy reform further reduces Ag. activity  Livestock numbers,  input use – Reductions are greater than in Baseline Overall emissions under policy reform (MTR) are lower than under Baseline (Agenda 2000)

18. Thank You www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri Further information on our work is available on our website at: