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Published byLillian Roberts Modified over 9 years ago
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Past trends in public health relevant characteristics of U.S. extreme heat events Evan M. Oswald, Richard B. Rood
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Motivation 1.Past changes in extreme heat event (EHE) risk 2.Assist in future forecasting of EHE risk 3.United States Historical Climate Network (USHCN) monthly dataset version 2-based trends Hypotheses 1.Continental average trends exist 2.Regional-scale spatial structure exists in those trends 3.Extreme heat event trends are a function of which daily metric(s) used 4.Strong relationships with summer average temperature trends
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Dataset 1.USHCN monthly dataset version 2 2.USHCN daily dataset version 1 3.Day-to-day variability transferred onto monthly values 4.Station selection criteria Study details 1.EHE def: 92.5 th percentile, 2 dates, running mean > 92.5 th percentile 2.Types: Tmin, Tmax, “Tmnx” 3.EHE Characteristics: 1.All encompassing metrics: No. EHE days per summer, sum intensity 2.Specific EHE characteristics: mean duration, mean intensity, No. EHEs per summer 3.Special interest metrics: No. of EHE days before July 1st
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Continental averages EHE characteristics EHE type
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Spatial Maps (1970-2010) Tmin type Tmnx type Tmax type
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Spatial Maps (1930-2010) Tmin type Tmnx type Tmax type Longer trends = bigger decrease, smaller increase
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Relationship with summer mean trends
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Relationship with early season events
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Conclusions 1.Continental averages a)Increasing trends: 1970-2010 b)Small trends: 1930-2010 2.Spatial structure a)Upper midwest / Eastern Central US feature. 3.Relationships a)Characteristics b)Different daily extremes c)Seasonal averages d)Early season
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Things to think about 1.Climatologists a)Mapping data of different temporal resolutions b)Warming hole, extreme temperatures c)Trend sensitivity (distribution, season) 2.End-users a)EHE definition: daily extreme sensitivity b)Trend sensitivity c)Summer average vs summertime EHE trends d)Early season vs summertime EHE trends
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