1. Jordan Case Study: Gulf of Aqaba THE FOURTH BOARD MEETING Sep 13-15, 2004 Hammamet, Tunis By Muhammad R. Shatanawi University of Jordan

2. WP 08: Regional Case Study: Jordan/ Gulf of Aqaba WORK PROGRESS

3. Contribution to WP04: Data Compilation and Analysis Using the SUMER database, the data related to Jordan case study has been completed and sent to SUMER Using the SUMER database, the data related to Jordan case study has been completed and sent to SUMER

4. Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database: CASE_COUNTRY CNameC_Code JordanJO REGION RNameR_CodeC_Code Aqaba GovernorateJOR1JO MUNICIPALITY MNameM_CodeR_Code AQABA DISTRICTJOM1JOR1 QUAIRAH DISTRICTJOM2JOR1

5. REG_POP YearValuePop_CharR_Code 200114582UJOR1 200189578RJOR1 MUN_POP YearValuePop_CharM_Code 200116665NAJOM2 200187495NAJOM1 200217140NAJOM2 200289975NAJOM1 Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database:

6. NAT_IND Ind_CodeValueC_Code Population Growth Rate (%/year)2.8JO Population Density (Number of people/Km 2 )58JO Crude Death Rate (%/year)5JO Crude Birth Rate (%/year)28JO Life Expectancy at Birth (years)69JO Growth of G.D.P. (%)4.5JO Activity Rate (%)38.2JO Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database:

7. REG_IND Ind_CodeValueR_Code Population Growth Rate (%/year)2.8JOR1 Population Density (Number of people/Km 2 )15.8JOR1 Crude Death Rate (%/year)0.35JOR1 Crude Birth Rate(%/year)2.84JOR1 Activity Rate (%)23.8JOR1 Percentage of Tertiary employment (%)80.9JOR1 Water Price for the Domestic Use (EURO/M3)0.71JOR1 Water Price for the Agricultural Use (EURO/M3)0.25JOR1 Water Price for the industry(EURO/M3)1.7JOR1 Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day)392.2JOR1 Domestic Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day)83JOR1 Commercial Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day)12JOR1 Industrial Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day)212.42JOR1 Total Water Consumption (M 3 )14950095JOR1 Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database:

8. MUN_IND Ind_CodeValueM_Code Population Growth Rate (%/year)2.84JOM1 Population Growth Rate (%/year)2.85JOM2 Population Density (Number of people/Km 2 )6.51JOM2 Population Density (Number of people/Km 2 )20JOM1 Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database:

9. NAT_IND_DTL Ind_CodeClassValueC_Code Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO) Cereals23.67JO Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO) Fruits159.6JO Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO) Vegetables135.48JO Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database: REG_IND_DTL Ind_CodeClassValueR_Code Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO) Cereals1.69JOR1 Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO) Fruits2.1JOR1 Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO) Vegetables8.21JOR1

10. Contributions to WP10 : Comparative Policy Analysis Contribution: Complete the data related to Jordan Case study in the draft comparative database that was prepared by UATLA Complete the data related to Jordan Case study in the draft comparative database that was prepared by UATLA

11. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Population Resident population increase% 2.32.8 Resident population annual increase 139,0002795 Birth control policy No Policy Natural growth rate% 2.8 Urban Population Growth% 2.8 Rural Population Growth% 2.3

12. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Water policies Agricultural water subvention Surface water subsidized, GW (private no subsidized) No Taxes (tourism and industry) actual cost of water Sustainable development and mobilization strategy for surface water construction of dams N/A National master land use planning Exist ASEZ has developed a master plan in which all land uses are determined

13. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan – Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Water resources Surface water supply% 370MCMNone Ground water supply% 510MCM17MCM Import N/A Losses- network% >50%32% Small DamsMCM 210None Recycling of Waste waterMCM 75 MCM90,000 Integrated management Not Exist Balance supply-demandMCM 1750

14. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - BaselineASEZ - Baseline Water quality Pollution Min Salinityppm 300-1000250-450 Surface water qualityppm 700N/A Groundwater pollution Limited Basin-out water supply (groundwater)mm/y N/A20MCM Waste waterppm 1000-1200700-1000 Wastewater industrial pollution Limited

15. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Water uses Domestic water useMCM 2703.96 Industrial water use (groundwater)MCM 253.95 Industrial water use (surface water)MCM 20None Irrigation water useMCM 6102.25 MCM Water exploitation awareness Exist

16. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Water Supply Investments Domestic Water Supply Investments N/A Irrigation m/o Investments N/A Land use Residential growth 15%20% Aquaculture development None Irrigated Areakm² 70010

17. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Land use Change % N/A Tourism areas N/A Agricultural Areas 2-10 Km 2 N/A Industrial Areas N/A

18. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Tourism National policy for tourism development EXIST Water overexploitat ion (in spite of the heavy taxes)% 1500 Shortage of Institutional capabilities No

19. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - BaselineASEZ - Baseline Agriculture Irrigation techniques% 5090 Loss rate in irrigation system% 4025

20. Jordan Data in the Comparative Database JordanAqaba Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline Climate Change Salt water intrusion No Frequent torrential rain NoNone More droughts Yes Less precipitation mm/y 30035 Precipitation ratemm 9535 Coastal erosionmm/y No

21. TELEMAC Modeling System

22. TELEMAC Modeling Work Achieved 1.A triangular mesh with a number of criteria was generated 2.The effect of the forcing parameters (Tide & Wind) on the current fields in the Gulf of Aqaba was studied. 3.The influence of these both factors on the local hydrodynamic (scalar velocity and water depth) was underlined.

23. Criteria: 3000 m, 1000 m, 200 m, and 20 m. Criteria: 3000 m, 1000 m, 200 m, and 20 m. Number of Elements: 24532 Number of Elements: 24532 I- Mesh Generation : MATISSE

24. Boundary Conditions 1.Upstream Boundary: Begins at boundary point number 1 and coordinates ( X=642127, Y=3110380), and ends at boundary point number 7 and coordinates (X= 659332.0 Y= 3113890).  Depth condition (open boundary with prescribed depth)  Velocity condition (open boundary with free velocity) 2.Coastline: Begins at boundary point number 7 (Global Number 65) and coordinates (X= 659332.0, Y= 3113890.), and ends at boundary point number 1 (Global Number 24) and coordinates (X= 642127.0, Y= 3110380).  Depth condition (closed boundary ”wall”) Upstream Boundary Coastline

25. Scenario I: TIDE  Three different Simulations were performed for the periods of : March, June and August.  The simulation time was three days corresponding to six tides for each month. Scenario II: TIDE & WIND  The same simulations performed in the first scenario were repeated taking into account the effect of wind.  The simulations were performed for a period of three days. Description of Scenarios

26. Hydrodynamic Results: RUBENS

27. Scenario I: Tide 1)March Flood Currents Produced From Rising Tides

28. Scenario I: Tide 1)March Flood Currents Produced From High Tides

29. Scenario I: Tide 1)March Ebb Currents Produced From Falling Tides

30. Scenario II: Tide & Wind 1)March Wind has more effect on the flow direction than the tide effect

31. Scenario II: Tide & Wind 1)March Wind has more effect on the flow direction than the tide effect

32. Scenario II: Tide & Wind 1)March Wind has more effect on the flow direction than the tide effect

33. Eddy currents produced at different locations in the Gulf of Aqaba during the month of March.

34. TELEMAC Modeling Current Step: Calibration/Validation the data used in the calibration step were obtained from the Marine Science Station, these data include: 1)Measured currents (intensity & direction) at one location during the months of March (from 06/03 to 31/03), June (from 01/06 to 22/06) and August (from 01/08 to 22/08) of the year 2000. The projected coordinate of that location in UTM is: X=690861 Y= 3260258. 2)Measured currents (intensity & direction) at two locations during the month of March 1999. The projected coordinates of those locations are: X=684850 Y= 3254935 and X= 651992 Y= 3135229. For the first location, the available measured currents are only for 22 hrs period during the fifth day of March. For the second location, it is for 30 hrs period during the second and third day of March. 3)The water depth at which the measured currents were taken was 35m. 4)Description of the bottom of the Gulf of Aqaba. It was known from the MSS that the bottom of the Aqaba Gulf consists of more than 90% Silicate and the remaining part is Carbonate.

35. Location of the points at which measured currents for the year 2000 and 1999 are available.

37. TELEMAC Modeling Current Step: Calibration/Validation Questions: 1)By comparing the simulated currents with the measured ones, it is appeared that there is a difference of two order of magnitude between the two comparable currents, Why ?! 2)Which parameter are we going to calibrate?

38. TELEMAC Modeling Next Step  To validate the model  To compute the pollutant evolution in the Gulf. The pollutant to be studied is the dissolved nitrogen in the form of Nitrate (NO 3 ˉ).  The water quality data is not available till now

39. Land Use Change Model LUC

40. LUC Model: Work Achieved A geographical domain have been defined (ASEZ border)A geographical domain have been defined (ASEZ border) Two Land use maps based on CORINE classification have been prepared using SPOT images (10m-coloured).Two Land use maps based on CORINE classification have been prepared using SPOT images (10m-coloured). The land use map are for two periods : 1990 and 2003.The land use map are for two periods : 1990 and 2003.

41. Aqaba Special Economic Zone Border (ASEZA)

42. Land Use Map For The Year 1990

43. Land Use Map For The Year 2003

44. WATERWARE Modeling System

45. WATERWARE Modeling System Work Achieved 1. Define the application domain within which the system is to be applied. The application domain will be ASEZA area. 2. Identify the network objects within the ASEZA border. A network objects are represented by: 1. Type (Start, Demand, Confluence, Diversion or Supply) 2. Location (X,Y,Z) 3. Time series data for: 1. The daily pumping rate from wells that supply Aqaba from 1998-2003 2. Daily water consumption for all sectors at each demand node from 1998-2003 3. Daily water consumption for sectors at each demand node from 1998-2003

50. Q: Where is the List of Scenario Button??

51. WATERWARE Modeling System Next Step  Check for suitability and adequacy of the collected data.  Try to run the WRM model for our case study.  Try to run the LUC model for our case study.

52. Current Problems we are facing How to deal with the sectorial demand data (Input format) ? How to deal with the sectorial demand data (Input format) ? In the manual, it is indicated that only scenarios owned by a user can be viewed, but what about the TIME SERIES. We observe that we can select a TS related to other case studies to be used in our scenario and or delete it? In the manual, it is indicated that only scenarios owned by a user can be viewed, but what about the TIME SERIES. We observe that we can select a TS related to other case studies to be used in our scenario and or delete it? When do you expect the model to be ready for RUN? When do you expect the model to be ready for RUN? What is the link between the WRM output and LUC model output? What is the link between the WRM output and LUC model output?

53. Dissemination Plan

54.  Participate in “Wadi Hydrology Steering Committee Meeting “ that was held in Damascus, Syria in July 20,2004  Participate in the “Second INCO-MED Water Conference ” that was held in Amman, June- 14,2004.  Participate in the “International Water Demand Management Conference” that was held in the Dead Sea, Jordan in May 30, 2004  Participate in the “International Water Demand Management Conference” that was held in the Dead Sea, Jordan in May 30, 2004

55. END of SLIDE SHOW THANK YOU