1. Ljubljana, 9 July 2014
Energy and Sustainability building a sustainable energy future - without the hot air Samo Fürst, GEN energija

2. We need energy literacy to make informed decisions about our energy future.
Why?
How much?
When?
Where does it come from?
Decision factors?
In order to make informed decisions of energy policy, we need basic understanding of energy;
Why do we need it, how much, when, where does it come from and which factors are influencing the decision for future energy development.

3. 1 kilowatt hour = 40 W light bulb / 24 hours
Food (chemical energy) = 3 kWh/day/person
Hot bath = 5 kWh of heat
Car drive (35 km/day, consumption 7 L/100 km) = 24 kWh/day
Just to be familiar with units used in energy sector I would like to present you the unit of energy quantity as kWh in comparison with our everyday usage.
Chemical energy Food Movement

4. Energy primary sources and its consumption in Slovenia
Energy use means unavoidable losses
Second important thing is to understand where does the energy come from.
Primary energy sources used in Slovenia are presented with their share. Solar, biomass and hydro are renewable and other are non renewable sources.
Our usage of energy is done by the transformation of primary energy, where usually smaller part is usable energy and bigger part presents energy loses,. These losses cannot be fully eliminated due to the physical properties of transformation process, but we are able to control the efficiency up to the some level, which depends on many factors.
Average consumption in Slovenia is roughly 113 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per day per person, which is equal to consumption of W light bulbs.
Slovenia’s primary source consumption is roughly 113 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per day per person.
In practical terms, this is the amount of energy one hundred and thirteen 40-watt light bulbs would use if left turned on by a single person around the clock, every day of the year.

5. Slovenian energy balance
If we broaden the usage of energy we can see that some part of primary energy is transformed into electricity and heat, which are used as source for consumers.
Other part of primary source are directly used by consumers for different purposes, but in the end they are also transformed into some other energy (movement of car, heat for heating, etc). This transformation also have some level of efficiency, which means that beside usable energy we also produce losses.
Energy unit: kWh/capita/day

6. Slovenian electricity production
Size of a circle represents
yearly production
Lets focus on electricity production sector for a while. Slovenian electricity production is based on nuclear, thermal (mainly as coal) and hydro energy. Although we have high level of renewable share (because of hydro PP) other renewable sources presents only 1% of the produced electricity.
38 %
34 %
27 %
OTHER RENEWABLES %
66% of electricity in Slovenia is low carbon and sustainable
(RES + nuclear)

7. Electricity consumption & production in Slovenia 1960-2060
2043 – Krško NPP closed
2055 – Šoštanj TPP closed
Decisions are needed today!
The lack of clear energy strategy has left our future without adequate installed capacity for electricity production. In the past Slovenia was most of the time self-sufficient in electricity production sector. But the future is far from bright. It can be seen that energy gap in future is too big and it means that Slovenia will be highly import dependent, which will result in higher prices of electricity and in the end in less competitive economy.
Political decisions shall be taken now, as in modern Europe approximately 10 years is needed from decision to start of operation of power plants (or other infrastructure projects).
1 GWh = one million kWh

8. Electricity cannot be stored! Production always equal to consumption!
Electricity use vs. time – requested power
Electricity consumption daily diagram shows the quantity of energy used in time depended scale. Electricity consumption is in line with electricity production all the time; each second the equal quantity of electricity is produced and consumed. The electric energy can not be stored as electricity and with this reason the installed power is very important component to meet the peak of electricity consumption and to provide stable and reliable system
Morning Evening
Electricity cannot be stored!
Production always equal to consumption!

9. Developing a sustainable energy strategy
Energy equity
Environmental sustainability
Energy security
Energy trilemma
How to provide affordable, reliable supply of energy, which takes into account the principles of environmental sustainability?
How, by what and when?
Slovenian commitments to the EU – climate and energy targets
Reduction of CO2 emissions; total emissions reductions of 30% to 40% by 2030
Indicative targets for 2050; 80% to 90% reduction in the overall reduction of CO2 emissions
The share of renewable energy sources; 25% by 2020
Factors influencing decisions
So far we know that we need energy, but how to support decisions for future development.
Which direction should we choose?
This is known as energy trilemma: How to provide affordable, reliable supply of energy, which takes into account the principles of environmental sustainability?
Opc.
The decision for future development shall be sustainable society; which means three things:
energy equity (as price availability of energy to all society classes)
Energy security (or availability of energy as a adequate system that can serve energy to consumers when they need it)
Environmental sustainability (as lowest level of environment degradation to meet energy demands and to left adequate amount of primary sources for future generations).
There are also political commitments which shall be taken into account.

10. Life cycle impacts shall be considered
All impacts shall be taken into account!
For proper decision making process about issues mentioned as energy trilemma, we should compare technologies on life cycle impacts. Life cycle impacts means all impact which arise during all the stages of a product's life; from its cradle to its grave (i.e., from raw material extraction through materials processing, manufacture, distribution, use, repair and maintenance, and disposal or recycling. Only this kind of comparison gives us the whole picture of appropriateness of our decions made.

11. Planning vs NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard)
Irresponsibility is unsustainable!
But we have some groups which are against either everything or against specific solutions regardless its benefits or its real impacts.
How to succeed in that kind of society?
We have to be aware that lack of our knowledge is the biggest barrier in decision making processes, but this can be solved by proper perceptiveness on real numbers based on life cycle assessment.

12. Climate change is a fact!
Climate change is (perceived as) one of the most serious threats to mankind
Environment sustainability shall be evaluated also in the view of climate change. EU research shows that our perception of climate change is as the second highest threats to mankind.
EU raziskava kaže, da so visoko na lestvici temeljnih “skrbi” evropskih državljanov (dodaš lahko še info za SLO – na 2. mestu med EU27 (za Švedsko in skupaj z Dansko s 67%) po zaskrbljenosti glede podnebnih sprememb…
Source: Climate change, Report, Special Eurobarometer 372, 2011.
Climate change is a fact!

13. Climate change driver: CO2 at record level of 400ppm
400ppm is record level in the last years (data from Antarctic ice)
This level was last reached 3 million years ago
Do we have a hot air already?
Not yet, but we are going to have as the level of CO2 is the highest in last years. Ice ages were repeated every years in that period in which the level of CO2 was from 180 to 280. Now we have level of 400ppm.
Scientist are in common that climate change is unavoidable. What can we do; at least we can limit the level of climate temperature rise.
9.5. so prvič izmerili povprečje celodnevne CO2 koncentracijo preko 400ppm, kar je najvišja koncentracija CO2 v zadnjih letih, v katerih je nihala od 180 do 280 ppm na podlagi podatkov oziroma izračunov iz polarnega ledu. Koncentracija 400 ppm naj bi sicer bila v ozračju že pred več kot 3 milijoni let.
V zadnjem milijonu let so si ledene dobe sledile na približno let, s spremembami CO2 od 180 do 280 ppm.
V zadnjih 10 letih je koncentracija CO2 v povprečju naraščala več kot 2% letno, v 10 letnem obdobju 50 let nazaj pa 1%.
Takšna intenziteta naraščanja je nevzdržna in bo povzročila izrazite podnebne spremembe oziroma se te že dogajajo, saj smo priča vse bolj izrazitim vremenskim pojavom že danes.
Ice ages repeated every years; CO2 level was from 180ppm to 280ppm
Climate change is a fact!

14. RES are not enough to achieve goal of 2 deg. temp. rise!
ESCII:
2,39 tCO2/toe in 1990
2,37 tCO2/toe in 2010
RES are not enough to achieve goal of 2 deg. temp. rise!
What shows historical statistics and future predictions of energy sector. Future energy predictions shown are made by International energy agency.
These days we are making decisions, which will effect rate of our climate temperature rise. Our most ambitions goal is to limit the rise of climate temperature to 2 degrees. If we will continue with existing policy, we can expect a temperature rise of six degrees, which is going to be devastating to mankind.
But in the last 20 years we have not changed the carbon intensity. Although we have introduced many renewable sources, there was a high increase of CO2. World needs all kind of low carbon technologies; that includes also new nuclear power plants, to achieve the goal of 2degrees temperature rise.
Mednarodna agencija za energijo (IEA - International Energy Agency) v svojem poročilu navaja, da se je ogljični indeks intenzitete energetskega sektorja (ESCII – Energy Sector Carbon Intensity Index) v letu 2010 le minimalno znižal in sicer z 2,39 ton CO2 na ekvivalentno tone nafte (tCO2/toe) v letu 1990 na 2,37 tCO2/toe v letu 2010.
Torej je CO2 intenzivnost energetike ista kot je bila leta 1990.
V tem času se je:
-Potreba po energiji se je povečala za 46%
-ter za 44% so se povečali izpusti CO2 v sektorju energetike
Mednarodna agencija za energijo IEA v svojih projekcijah prikazuje smer razvoja energetike v primeru različnih scenarijev, to so scenariji ciljne omejitve povišanja temperature ozračja.
Če bomo ostali na istem indeksu intenzitete energetskega sektorja lahko pričakujemo povišanje temperature ozračja za 6 stopinj C.
Ciljni scenarij 2DS, to je maksimalno povišanje temperature za 2stopinje ob ciljni koncentraciji 450ppm v letu 2050, pa predvideva znižanje indeksa pod 1 tono CO2 na ekvivalentno tone nafte
Source: OECD/IEA

15. Nuclear provides sustainability
Sustainable energy mix
Nuclear + Renewable
Low carbon electricity, affordable to all levels of society!
Reliable supply
CO2 footprint
Energy
triangle
Affordable
Electricity prices for small consumers (USD/MWh)
Nuclear provides sustainability
Important issue is competitiveness of economy which is affected also by energy prices.
Just as a rhetorical question; to which group we would like to join; with higher prices on the right or with lower prices on the left?
Slovenia can choose its own energy mix, not influenced by Germany or Austria. At the end we are choosing about our competitiveness.
Vse je odvisno od tega kakšno energetsko mešanico si bo Slovenija SAM izbrala – nismo odvisni od Nemčije, Avsrtije!
Sami se odločamo o svoji gospodarnosti
Non - Nuclear
Nuclear

16. The key directions for Slovenian sustainable energy future are:
electrification of the transport and heating sector,
electricity generation from sustainable and renewable sources (nuclear and hydro energy),
reduction of fossil fuels and focus on natural gas as the cleanest of them,
better use of energy sources available due to our natural characteristics - biomass for heating,
energy efficiency measures (- 20%, - 30%?)…
>>> EXPECTED RESULTS:
less energy import dependency > more energy security
less CO2 emissions
reliable energy supply at competitive prices
Key direction for our sustainable future are:
Electrification of all sectors where this is possible (transport, heating, industry)
Use of sustainable and renewable sources (nuclear and hydro energy),
reduction of fossil fuel
energy efficiency measures (- 20%, - 30%?)…
Our goals:
less energy import dependency > more energy security
less CO2 emissions
reliable energy supply at competitive prices

17. Future low carbon option for Slovenia
Today Option for future
SOLAR: ,1 kWh/d
HYDRO: kWh/d
NUCLEAR HEAT: 25 kWh/d
BIOMASS AND GEOTHERMAL: kWh/d
COAL: 23 kWh/d
NATURAL GAS: 11 kWh/d
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: kWh/d
PRIMARY SOURCES kWh/d per person
- 30 %
in consumption
SOLAR: 20 kWh/d
NUCLEAR: 20 kWh/d
PRIMARY SOURCES kWh/d per person
BIOMASS: 20 kWh/d
WIND: 10 kWh/d
HYDRO: 10 kWh/d
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
To understand the problem of achieving the goals of sustainable development we can address the low carbon option for Slovenia.
With huge efforts of energy efficiency we can save 30% of primary sources. This corresponds the consumption of 80kWh/d per person in future. To achieve low carbon option only sustainable sources (nuclear and RES) are in the proposed energy mix.

18. Requirements for proposed future option
SOLAR: 20 kWh/d
NUCLEAR: 20 kWh/d
BIOMASS: 20 kWh/d
WIND: 10 kWh/d
HYDRO: 10 kWh/d
NEEDS
280 km2 area
Power plant
1900 MW
3400 km2 area
400 km2 area
All theoretic possible potential
Here are shown requirements in Slovenia to realize proposed scenario of low carbon option. The surface of rectangles are in scale with Slovenian map. We need 1 new big unit of nuclear power plants together with existing one, huge amount of space for biomass and solar and all theoretic potential of rivers.
Is this option sustainable? What about social impacts, besides that environment limitations do not allow such huge impacts. This is also the reasons that all techonoligies are important and shall be taken into account
Is it a sustainable option?

19. GEN Group’s core business functions
Production
Development and Investments
Trading and Sales
The vision of GEN group is to become the driver of sustainable development in the areas of production and supply of electricity generated from clean, sustainable and renewable energy sources.
Our portfolio are trading and sales company, electricity production units and research companies. From production unit the most important is nuclear power plant. We also invest in hydro power plants on Sava River and own gas thermal power plant.
Based on sustainable energy sources

20. Sustainable energy – provided by nuclear and RES
The GEN Group: electricity production Portfolio of sustainable and renewable energy sources
Electricity production in the GEN Group in 2013 (in GWh, by source)
The GEN group
2.983 GWh
Sustainable energy – provided by nuclear and RES
The GEN group production is app. 3 TWh which is 25% of electricity consumed in Slovenia.
Slovenian average energy production:
11 TWh/per year
Slovenian average consumption:
12 TWh/per year
Average GEN Group production (50% NEK):
3 TWh/per year

21. Investing in new production capacity
EXPANDING NUCLEAR CAPACITIES FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
Investment in the construction of a second unit of Krško NPP (Krško 2).
OTHER INVESTMENTS
Completing the chain of hydroelectric power plants on the lower and middle course of the Sava River
Replacement of gas units PB 1, 2, 3 at Termoelektrarna Brestanica (TEB) – assessing the viability of investing in a gas-steam unit.
Investments in the future, with a focus on renewable and sustainable energy sources.
Our main goal is to preserve the high quality production in existing nuclear power plant and to expand the nuclear option in Slovenia by construction of second unit. We also invest in renewable energy-hydro power plants on Sava river.

22. Decision is in our hands! Be open minded and decide on facts!
JEK 2 and sustainable
development of Slovenia
a reliable electricity supply
Domestic source of energy
District Heating
Highly qualified jobs
the best, most advanced and secure technologies
Optimal land requirements and nature conservation
Low carbon source of energy
Pressurized water reactor, 3th generation with improved technology and security
Usage of recycled fuel
Environment
Society
Economy
Positive impact on Slovenian economy and standard of living
Competitiveness on electricity market
electricity generated at a nuclear power plant is competitive in the market without any subsidies
Nuclear energy, already as a proven technology in Slovenia, can further serve as a sustainable electricity production by investing into second unit. All three perspective of sustainability are already proven and Slovenia has high reputation at international level with knowledge and experiences from existing nuclear power plant.
It offers wide range of advantages:
Optimal land requirements, low carbon, use of recycle fuel, reliable supply, domestic source, option for heating, Highly qualified jobs, competitive price are key factors of nuclear.
Decision is in our hands. We just have to be enough open minded to accept the decision to support already proven sustainable technology; that is nuclear.
Decision is in our hands! Be open minded and decide on facts!

23. Thank you for your attention!
Questions?
Samo Fürst, Licensing Lead Engineer, GEN energija

24. Technical limitations for RES
Electricity load diagram PV
PV+ wind
Load – power needed
wind
Energy deficit
Classic power plants