1. 1 Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Opportunities for Transfer of Research and Technology into Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast Operations USWRP AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology 4 May 2004

2. 2 Purpose of this Session NOAA continues to seek new science and technology to improve operational tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting The testing and evaluation of existing, mature, and promising science and technology in an operational setting will be funded by grants An announcement of opportunity for grant proposals will be released on or about 1 June 2004 NOAA continues to seek new science and technology to improve operational tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting The testing and evaluation of existing, mature, and promising science and technology in an operational setting will be funded by grants An announcement of opportunity for grant proposals will be released on or about 1 June 2004

3. 3 Session Agenda Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Overview –Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing, JHT Director and TPC/NHC JHT 2004 Announcement of Opportunity –Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP JHT Proposal Reviews and the Testing and Evaluation Process –Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst. and TPC/NHC –James Franklin, TPC/NHC Open Discussion, Questions and Answers Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Overview –Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing, JHT Director and TPC/NHC JHT 2004 Announcement of Opportunity –Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP JHT Proposal Reviews and the Testing and Evaluation Process –Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst. and TPC/NHC –James Franklin, TPC/NHC Open Discussion, Questions and Answers

4. 4 Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Overview USWRP Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing JHT Director TPC/NHC Technical Support Branch Chief

5. 5 Outline 1.JHT Mission Statement 2.Major Activities 2001-03 3.JHT Infrastructure 4.TPC Operational Environment 5.JHT Computing Resources 6.TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT 7.JHT First Round Projects 8.JHT Second Round Project Focus Areas 9.JHT Future Plans 1.JHT Mission Statement 2.Major Activities 2001-03 3.JHT Infrastructure 4.TPC Operational Environment 5.JHT Computing Resources 6.TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT 7.JHT First Round Projects 8.JHT Second Round Project Focus Areas 9.JHT Future Plans

6. 6 JHT Mission Statement The mission of the Joint (NOAA, Navy, and NASA) Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the USWRP, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.

7. 7 Established the JHT 2001-02 –Developed Terms of Reference (Mar 2001-May 2002) Including establishment of the process and criteria for a successful transfer from research to operations –Funded initial round of 10 projects for a first year (Jun 2001) –Formed Steering Committee (Mar 2002) –Renewed 9 of 10 first round projects for a second year (FY02) (Q3 2002) –Procured hardware (Q3 2002) –Hired IT Facilitator (Jun 2002) Established the JHT 2001-02 –Developed Terms of Reference (Mar 2001-May 2002) Including establishment of the process and criteria for a successful transfer from research to operations –Funded initial round of 10 projects for a first year (Jun 2001) –Formed Steering Committee (Mar 2002) –Renewed 9 of 10 first round projects for a second year (FY02) (Q3 2002) –Procured hardware (Q3 2002) –Hired IT Facilitator (Jun 2002) Major Activities 2001-03

8. 8 First Round Project Assessments 2002-03 –IT configuration and algorithm processing provided for each project to facilitate forecaster participation –Real-time testing and evaluation activities (Jun-Nov 2002) and continued during 2003 season –PIs presented updates at 56 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (Mar 2002) and 57 th IHC (Mar 2003) –FY01-02 projects concluded (Jun-Aug 2003) –JHT reports on results from 2002-03 hurricane seasons (Nov 2003) –TPC/NHC decisions for operational implementation (Dec 2003) First Round Project Assessments 2002-03 –IT configuration and algorithm processing provided for each project to facilitate forecaster participation –Real-time testing and evaluation activities (Jun-Nov 2002) and continued during 2003 season –PIs presented updates at 56 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (Mar 2002) and 57 th IHC (Mar 2003) –FY01-02 projects concluded (Jun-Aug 2003) –JHT reports on results from 2002-03 hurricane seasons (Nov 2003) –TPC/NHC decisions for operational implementation (Dec 2003) Major Activities 2001-03

9. 9 JHT Infrastructure Personnel Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) 7-member Steering Committee –Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community –TPC member serves as co-Chair Two quarter-time administrative assistants One IT Facilitator Computing Resources Server and workstations Software Personnel Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) 7-member Steering Committee –Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community –TPC member serves as co-Chair Two quarter-time administrative assistants One IT Facilitator Computing Resources Server and workstations Software

10. 10 Logistics Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Personnel TPC dedicating 1.5 staff years of effort Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Programming, system administration, and network support Administrative support Computing Resources Network connectivity Operational data flow Logistics Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Personnel TPC dedicating 1.5 staff years of effort Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Programming, system administration, and network support Administrative support Computing Resources Network connectivity Operational data flow TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT

11. 11 TPC Operational Environment Platforms/Applications N-AWIPS - GEMPAK ATCF Satellite processing – McIDAS-X AWIPS Hardware HP servers/workstations Red Hat Linux workstations Data Satellite imagery - McIDAS AREA files Observational data – GEMPAK, text, binary; NetCDF (AWIPS) Numerical model output – grib and GEMPAK grid ATCF data – text files (“decks”) Platforms/Applications N-AWIPS - GEMPAK ATCF Satellite processing – McIDAS-X AWIPS Hardware HP servers/workstations Red Hat Linux workstations Data Satellite imagery - McIDAS AREA files Observational data – GEMPAK, text, binary; NetCDF (AWIPS) Numerical model output – grib and GEMPAK grid ATCF data – text files (“decks”)

12. 12 JHT Computing Resources Hardware JHT Server –Physically located in equipment room –HP 9000 A-class (A500 Enterprise Server) –HP-UX 11i –Two 550 MHz RISC processors –4 GB memory –292 GB hard disk space –DLT 8000 tape drive JHT Workstation –Physically located in hurricane operations area –HP workstation c3600 –HP-UX 11.0 –One 550 MHz RISC processor –72 GB hard disk space –1.5 GB memory Software N-AWIPS - GEMPAK Hardware JHT Server –Physically located in equipment room –HP 9000 A-class (A500 Enterprise Server) –HP-UX 11i –Two 550 MHz RISC processors –4 GB memory –292 GB hard disk space –DLT 8000 tape drive JHT Workstation –Physically located in hurricane operations area –HP workstation c3600 –HP-UX 11.0 –One 550 MHz RISC processor –72 GB hard disk space –1.5 GB memory Software N-AWIPS - GEMPAK

13. 13 PIs / POCs connect on public JHT side Public Private

14. 14 New SHIPS model predictors AMSU intensity and size estimates GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades TC rainfall climatology and persistence (R-CLIPER) model Probability of rapid intensification JHT First Round Projects Accepted by TPC for Operational Implementation

15. 15 Primary Areas of Focus# of Projects Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) 4 Track forecast guidance algorithms3 Intensity forecasting algorithms3 Enhancements to observed data, assimilation 2 Initial intensity estimation1 Tropical cyclogenesis1 Rainfall1 Total15 JHT Second Round (FY03-04) Project Focus Areas

16. 16 JHT Future Plans Round Two projects (FY03-04 funding) –Review each project for second year of funding (FY04 funding) –Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane season, and at least part of 2005 season –Decision in late 2005 for operational implementation Round Three projects (FY05-06 funding) –Release new announcement of opportunity in June 2004 –Select and fund new set of projects by spring 2005 –Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 and 2006 hurricane seasons –Decisions in late 2006 for operational implementation in 2007 Round Two projects (FY03-04 funding) –Review each project for second year of funding (FY04 funding) –Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane season, and at least part of 2005 season –Decision in late 2005 for operational implementation Round Three projects (FY05-06 funding) –Release new announcement of opportunity in June 2004 –Select and fund new set of projects by spring 2005 –Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 and 2006 hurricane seasons –Decisions in late 2006 for operational implementation in 2007

17. 17 Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) 2004 Announcement of Opportunity USWRP Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP

18. 18

19. 19 USWRP Hurricane Landfall Priorities Reduce landfall track and intensity errors by 20 percent Extend track forecasts to 120 hours with an average error less than 250 nautical miles Increase warning lead time to 24 hours and beyond with 95% confidence Make skillful forecasts (compared to persistence) of gale- and hurricane-force wind radii out to 48 hours with 95% confidence Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to three days and improve skill of day-three forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts Reduce landfall track and intensity errors by 20 percent Extend track forecasts to 120 hours with an average error less than 250 nautical miles Increase warning lead time to 24 hours and beyond with 95% confidence Make skillful forecasts (compared to persistence) of gale- and hurricane-force wind radii out to 48 hours with 95% confidence Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to three days and improve skill of day-three forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts

20. 20 Operational Centers’ Forecast Improvement Needs Complementary to USWRP goalsComplementary to USWRP goals TPC/NHC highest prioritiesTPC/NHC highest priorities –Guidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity change –Improved observations in the storm and its environment –“Guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation –Enhancements to the operational environment to increase forecaster efficiency –Improved storm surge guidance models –Nine more (see announcement) EMC highest prioritiesEMC highest priorities –General model improvements to advance track and intensity forecasts –Improved boundary layer representation for coupled models –Model validation techniques for 3-D hi res verification –Diagnostic techniques to increase utility of global models Complementary to USWRP goalsComplementary to USWRP goals TPC/NHC highest prioritiesTPC/NHC highest priorities –Guidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity change –Improved observations in the storm and its environment –“Guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation –Enhancements to the operational environment to increase forecaster efficiency –Improved storm surge guidance models –Nine more (see announcement) EMC highest prioritiesEMC highest priorities –General model improvements to advance track and intensity forecasts –Improved boundary layer representation for coupled models –Model validation techniques for 3-D hi res verification –Diagnostic techniques to increase utility of global models

21. 21 Award Information Estimate of funds available: $1,500,000 Funding of any JHT proposals is contingent upon availability of these funds 10 to 15 new projects likely to be funded Period of awards is one to two years, funded one year at a time (two-year projects reviewed near end of first year) Funding instrument for non-Federal applicants will be a Cooperative Agreement based on the envisioned substantial involvement of NOAA forecasters and scientists Estimate of funds available: $1,500,000 Funding of any JHT proposals is contingent upon availability of these funds 10 to 15 new projects likely to be funded Period of awards is one to two years, funded one year at a time (two-year projects reviewed near end of first year) Funding instrument for non-Federal applicants will be a Cooperative Agreement based on the envisioned substantial involvement of NOAA forecasters and scientists

22. 22 Eligible Applicants Institutions of higher educationInstitutions of higher education Other nonprofitsOther nonprofits Commercial organizationsCommercial organizations Foreign governmentsForeign governments Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign governmentsOrganizations under the jurisdiction of foreign governments International organizationsInternational organizations State, local and Indian tribal governmentsState, local and Indian tribal governments Federal agenciesFederal agencies Institutions of higher educationInstitutions of higher education Other nonprofitsOther nonprofits Commercial organizationsCommercial organizations Foreign governmentsForeign governments Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign governmentsOrganizations under the jurisdiction of foreign governments International organizationsInternational organizations State, local and Indian tribal governmentsState, local and Indian tribal governments Federal agenciesFederal agencies

23. 23 Key Dates 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) due1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) due 25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sent25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sent 15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due Funding expected winter or early spring 2005Funding expected winter or early spring 2005 Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 2005Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 2005 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) due1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) due 25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sent25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sent 15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due Funding expected winter or early spring 2005Funding expected winter or early spring 2005 Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 2005Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 2005

24. 24 Submission Requirements Non-Federal applications require forms contained in the standard NOAA Grants and Cooperative Agreement Application Package Required content and format of the preapplications and full proposals will be spelled out in the announcement of opportunity Preapplications may be sent as printed hard copies, or, preferably, they may be submitted electronically Full proposals and all additionally required forms must be submitted as printed hard copies Electronic submission of the proposal document (without the required forms), in PDF format, is strongly encouraged to facilitate the review process Non-Federal applications require forms contained in the standard NOAA Grants and Cooperative Agreement Application Package Required content and format of the preapplications and full proposals will be spelled out in the announcement of opportunity Preapplications may be sent as printed hard copies, or, preferably, they may be submitted electronically Full proposals and all additionally required forms must be submitted as printed hard copies Electronic submission of the proposal document (without the required forms), in PDF format, is strongly encouraged to facilitate the review process

25. 25 Award Notices Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of one to two yearsFunded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of one to two years Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available fundsTwo-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available funds For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to beginFor non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to begin Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the projectNotifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the project Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selectedUnsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selected Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of one to two yearsFunded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of one to two years Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available fundsTwo-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available funds For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to beginFor non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to begin Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the projectNotifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the project Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selectedUnsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selected

26. 26 Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Proposal Reviews and the Testing and Evaluation Process USWRP Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst. TPC/NHC Science and Operations Officer James Franklin, TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialist

27. 27 Preapplication Review Process PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposalPIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposal PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposalPIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposal Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers) All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouragedAll PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouraged All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s)All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s) PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposalPIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposal PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposalPIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposal Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers) All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouragedAll PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouraged All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s)All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s)

28. 28 Full Proposal Review Process All full proposals will receive an independent, objective review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcementAll full proposals will receive an independent, objective review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcement Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers) Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal)Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal) Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scoresScores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scores All applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposalAll applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposal All full proposals will receive an independent, objective review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcementAll full proposals will receive an independent, objective review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcement Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers) Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal)Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal) Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scoresScores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scores All applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposalAll applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposal

29. 29 Review Criteria (Condensed) Relevance to program goals (40 pts)Relevance to program goals (40 pts) –Research maturity (10 pts) –Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts) –Other agency use (5 pts) Technical merit (40 pts)Technical merit (40 pts) –Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts) –Testing (10 pts) –Operational usage (10 pts) –Technical compatibility (10 pts) Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts) Project costs (10 pts)Project costs (10 pts) Relevance to program goals (40 pts)Relevance to program goals (40 pts) –Research maturity (10 pts) –Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts) –Other agency use (5 pts) Technical merit (40 pts)Technical merit (40 pts) –Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts) –Testing (10 pts) –Operational usage (10 pts) –Technical compatibility (10 pts) Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts) Project costs (10 pts)Project costs (10 pts)

30. 30 What Happens After You’re Funded JHT staff will provide project administration and facilitationJHT staff will provide project administration and facilitation TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contactTPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contact Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contactEstablishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contact Project provided access to JHT IT environmentProject provided access to JHT IT environment Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation beginPreparations for real-time testing and evaluation begin Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or JHT IT Facilitator as necessaryInteractions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or JHT IT Facilitator as necessary JHT staff will provide project administration and facilitationJHT staff will provide project administration and facilitation TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contactTPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contact Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contactEstablishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contact Project provided access to JHT IT environmentProject provided access to JHT IT environment Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation beginPreparations for real-time testing and evaluation begin Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or JHT IT Facilitator as necessaryInteractions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or JHT IT Facilitator as necessary

31. 31 Hotline Coordination Call

32. 32 Time (UTC)EventActivities/Comments 1200Forecast cycle begins Review late models, synoptic obs, microwave data, scatterometer, etc.; begin determining wind radii 1230Receive fix information Analyze recon or satellite fix data, update the best track, determine compute parameters (initial position, motion, intensity, size) 1245Submit computeReview model fields [submit invest computes, 2 nd storm?] 1250Retrieve guidance Examine guidance, re-evaluate initial radii, make track, intensity radii forecasts, fill out worksheet 1340Prepare for conference call Watch/Warnings, begin writing forecast discussion, [make aircraft tasking requests for following day] 1400-1410Conference callCoordinate forecast, watches/warnings. 1410Prepare products[New fix], Write Public Advisory, Discussion 1430-1500xmit productsUpdate phone recordings, web graphics Advisory Forecast Cycle

33. 33

34. 34 Time (UTC)EventActivities/Comments 1500Clean up workspace Enter fixes, file paperwork 1510-1530Prepare ATL TWO Examine models (0-36 h), imagery, scatterometer, microwave 1530-1600Prepare for Long- Range Coordination call Examine models (120-168 h) 1600LRCC-HPC 1630-1650Prepare EPAC TWO Examine models, imagery, microwave, scatterometer 1715-1745Prepare intermediate advisory? 1745-1800Examine 12Z models 1800Begin next forecast cycle Advisory Forecast Cycle

35. 35 Testing and Evaluation Activities Pre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a techniquePre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a technique Formatting output for direct forecaster useFormatting output for direct forecaster use Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to enable real-time useProviding training, documentation, etc. needed to enable real-time use Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi- operational environmentReal-time testing and evaluation in a quasi- operational environment Obtaining feedback from forecastersObtaining feedback from forecasters Off-season simulations/case study runsOff-season simulations/case study runs Post-season verification and evaluationPost-season verification and evaluation Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications if necessaryTechnique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications if necessary Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and funded researchers and their staffsClose collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and funded researchers and their staffs Pre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a techniquePre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a technique Formatting output for direct forecaster useFormatting output for direct forecaster use Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to enable real-time useProviding training, documentation, etc. needed to enable real-time use Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi- operational environmentReal-time testing and evaluation in a quasi- operational environment Obtaining feedback from forecastersObtaining feedback from forecasters Off-season simulations/case study runsOff-season simulations/case study runs Post-season verification and evaluationPost-season verification and evaluation Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications if necessaryTechnique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications if necessary Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and funded researchers and their staffsClose collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and funded researchers and their staffs

36. 36 Reporting Requirements During the Project Written semi-annual reportsWritten semi-annual reports Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual report (for review for continuation into second year)Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual report (for review for continuation into second year) Final report at conclusion of projectFinal report at conclusion of project Written semi-annual reportsWritten semi-annual reports Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual report (for review for continuation into second year)Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual report (for review for continuation into second year) Final report at conclusion of projectFinal report at conclusion of project

37. 37 Input for JHT Project Reports to the TPC Director Project PI final reportProject PI final report JHT staff members’ assessmentsJHT staff members’ assessments TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedbackTPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback JHT IT Facilitator reportJHT IT Facilitator report –IT transfer status –Compatibility and support issues –Estimates of costs to implement and support –Input from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief Project PI final reportProject PI final report JHT staff members’ assessmentsJHT staff members’ assessments TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedbackTPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback JHT IT Facilitator reportJHT IT Facilitator report –IT transfer status –Compatibility and support issues –Estimates of costs to implement and support –Input from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

38. 38 Provide baseline TC rainfall forecasts for assessing skill of other methods Develop R-CLIPER from gauge and TMI climatology for operational and model QPF comparisons Project climatology along forecast track Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model PI: Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) POC: Stacy Stewart and Hugh Cobb (TPC), David Roth (HPC) Status: Accepted by TPC for operational implementation

39. 39 Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Example real-time output in NAWIPS during Hurricane Lili (2002)

40. 40 Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Considerations for operational implementation decision Favorable: Provides baseline forecast, as originally intended, needed to evaluate the skill of other sources of TC rainfall guidance (primarily dynamical models, as in the new JHT project funded in FY03) TPC and HPC forecasters have found the guidance to be useful operationally (e.g., for preparing generalized rainfall information in public advisories) Code has been transferred to TPC where it is run and maintained locally Gempak/NMAP2 graphical output already routinely available to specialists for each active TC in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins Negligible CPU, disk space, memory to run; minimal support required Unfavorable: Unclear reason for needed adjustment factor to final output Verification results not yet completed Does not account for storm asymmetries

41. 41 Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Example content for IT report to TPC Director

42. 42 Factors Considered in TPC Decisions for Operational Implementation Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsEfficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportSustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsEfficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportSustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support

43. 43 Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Opportunities for Transfer of Research and Technology into Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast Operations USWRP Open Discussion Website: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht/index.html

44. 44 Supplemental Slides USWRP

45. 45 Reporting Requirements During the Project Award recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT DirectorAward recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT Director Electronic submission preferredElectronic submission preferred All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month periodAll reports will be submitted on a semi-annual schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month period Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award expirationComprehensive final report due 90 days after award expiration Award recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT DirectorAward recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT Director Electronic submission preferredElectronic submission preferred All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month periodAll reports will be submitted on a semi-annual schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month period Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award expirationComprehensive final report due 90 days after award expiration

46. 46 Time (UTC)Task / Event 00:00Synoptic time, cycle begins 00:45Receive satellite fix data 01:00Initialize models 01:20 Receive model guidance, begin preparing forecast 02:00 NWS/DOD hotline coordination call 03:00Advisory package deadline 03:15FEMA conference call 06:00Next cycle begins TPC/NHC Six-hour Forecast Cycle

47. 47 Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02) Ten projects were funded in FY01 One was denied second year funding Six were accepted for operational implementation Decisions on two projects were deferred until the completion of closely related new projects One was not accepted for operational implementation at this time Ten projects were funded in FY01 One was denied second year funding Six were accepted for operational implementation Decisions on two projects were deferred until the completion of closely related new projects One was not accepted for operational implementation at this time

48. 48 FY03 Announcement of Opportunity Preparation, revision, and legal review of Federal Register Notice (FRN) Aug-Dec 2002 FRN released January 2003 Open to government, academic, and private sector applicants worldwide Estimated total available funding $1.5M Preparation, revision, and legal review of Federal Register Notice (FRN) Aug-Dec 2002 FRN released January 2003 Open to government, academic, and private sector applicants worldwide Estimated total available funding $1.5M Summary of Second Round of Projects Funded in Late FY03

49. 49 Funding Distribution Comparison Increased funding to researchers outside of NOAA FY2003 $1.35M FY2002 $1.2M