1. Efficiency Energy for the Future Sustainable Development, Step 1 Reduce Worldwide Energy Intensity by 2% Per Year Talk at Global Energy International Prize Presentation and Symposium. University of California at Berkeley, 19 Nov. 2003 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US www.Energy.CA.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

2. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 2 Improved efficiency case = IS 92a with E/GDP at -2%/yr EIA International Energy Outlook 2003 Like Improved Case starting with World at current EU E/GDP 1990 to 2000 Actuals from EIA - 0.8% until 2020 then - 1.0% = - 2.0 % from 2000 until 2100 Average TW α α = α = Annual change in E/GWP

3. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 3 United States Refrigerator Use v. Time Annual drop from 1974 to 2001 = 5% per year 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1947194919511953195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Refrigerator volume (cubic feet) Energy Use per Unit Refrigerator Size (cubic feet) 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard

4. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 4

5. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 5 United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 19471949195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house)

6. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 6 Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 at 1974 efficiencyat 2001 efficiency GW capacity saved capacity needed

7. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 7 Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers in the US compared to Generation from Nuclear, Hydro, Renewables, Three Gorges Dam and ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Billion kWh per year 150 M Refrig/Freezers at 1974 effat 2001 eff Nuclear Conventional Hydro 3 Gorges Dam Existing Renewables 50 Million 2 kW PV Systems Saved Used

8. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 8 The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. This is previous figure re-stated in dollars with generation worth $.03/kWh and savings worth $.085/kWh) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Billion $ per year Dollars Saved from 150 M Refrig/Freezers at 2001 efficiency Nuclear Conventional Hydro Existing Renewables 50 Million 2 kW PV Systems 3 Gorges Dam ANWR

9. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 9 3 Gorges Dam vs. added Appliances in 2010 3 Gorges: 18 GW x 3,500 hours/year = 63 TWh at wholesale Source: David Fridley - LBNL Conclusion: Optimum appliances could save 35 TWh/year, about one-half of 3 Gorges generation in 2010. Savings at retail at least twice as valuable as wholesale, so economically equivalent to the entire 3 Gorges project.

10. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 10 Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25%

11. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 11 Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in California Annual drop averages 4% per year 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 kWh/YEAR Source: CEC Demand Analysis Office 1992 Federal Appliance Standard California Title 20 Appliance Standards 1976-1982 Initial California Title 24 Building Standards Estimated Impact of 2006 SEER 12 Standards 100% 33%

12. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 12 300 GW 200 GW

13. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 13 Estimated Power Saved Due to Air Conditioning Standards (1974 - 2002) uPeak Power for United States Air Conditioning ~ 250 GW uBut standards cover only residential and rooftop units ~ 200 GW uAvoided GW: 100 GW uComparisons: –United States Nuclear Plants net capability ~ 100 GW –California Peak Load ~ 50 GW uCooler roofs will save another 10% of 200 GW –Flat roofs, new or replacement, should be white To be required in 2005 California Building Standards –Sloped roofs, new or replacement, can be colored but cool –Each strategy saves 10%, so 20 GW total

14. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 14

15. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 15 Source: Mike Messenger, CEC Staff, April 2003 GWH Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 19751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 GWH Utility Programs: at a cost of ~1% of Electric Bill Building Standards Appliance Standards ~ 14% of Annual Use in California in 2001

16. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 16 Electricity Efficiency and Renewables in California Goals of California Energy Action Plan 2003 uCalifornia kWh per capita is already flat compared to U.S. climbing 2%/yr. uNew California goal is to reduce kWh per capita by 1/2% to 1% each year uRenewable Portfolio Standard: add 1% of renewables per year uAdditional peak reduction of 1% per year by Demand Response when power is expensive or reliability is a problem uIn total, goals aim to reduce electricity growth, increase renewables, and grow demand response

17. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 17 The Transition to a Sustainable Future uPast investments in efficiency have reduced growth and saved money uIn addition, future investments could significantly reduce world energy demand and carbon emissions uWe now turn our discussion from electricity to primary energy uAdditional details will be available in Energy Efficiency and Climate Change, Rosenfeld, et.al., in The Encyclopedia of Energy, Elsevier, 2004

18. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 18 20-year annual growth was 1.7%

19. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 19

20. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 20

21. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 21

22. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 22 Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the United States International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA (Energy Information Agency) -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 IEA dataEIA data - 2.7% Average = - 0.7% - 3.4%

23. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 23 Annual Rate of Change in Energy/Gross State Product for California (Sources: EIA and California Department of Finance) -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 19811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 Average = -1.0% -4.5% -3.9%

24. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 24 Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for Europe IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) for European Union and Western Europe EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate) -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 IEA dataEIA data - 1.2% Average = - 1.3% - 1.4%

25. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 25 Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for China IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate) -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 IEA dataEIA data - 4.8% Average = - 5.0% - 5.3%

26. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 26 Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate) -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 IEA dataEIA data note: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data - 1.3% Average = - 0.7%

27. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 27 North America World Europe

28. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 28

29. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 29 Improved efficiency case = IS 92a with E/GDP at -2%/yr EIA International Energy Outlook 2003 Like Improved Case starting with World at current EU E/GDP 1990 to 2000 Actuals from EIA - 0.8% until 2020 then - 1.0% = - 2.0 % from 2000 until 2100 Average TW α α = α = Annual change in E/GWP

30. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 The “Conservation Bomb” (World Primary Power or Energy) TWa 20002100  = -2%/yr  = -3%/yr  = -4%/yr 6 billion people @ 2 kW = 12 TW 10 billion people @ 5 kW = 50 TW Year  = Annual % growth in Energy/GDP Quads/yr 0 300 600 900 1200 1500  = -1%/yr GWP = $ 25 Trillion GWP = $ 250 Trillion

31. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 31

32. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 32

33. Efficiency Energy for the Future Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 33