1. Directionality Influences in Spatial Processes by JD Hunt, University of Calgary M Thériault, Université Laval P Villeneuve, Université Laval PROCESSUS Second International Colloquium Toronto ON, Canada June 2005

2. Overview Introduction Context Motivations Approach Evidence Disaggregate Observations of Choice Behaviour Aggregate Patterns of System Behaviour Conclusions Modelling Expectations regarding urban form Planning and design

3. Introduction Context Modelling spatial decisions, representation relative location Travel time components Travel cost components Comfort and convenience What of ‘directionality’? ‘together’, ‘on the way’ rather than ‘out of the way’ Anchored relative to reference locations: work, CBD, etc Nature of perception beyond times and costs System reinforcing directional tendencies Motivation Adding representation of directionality – simple form Seeing in results in various forms Improved understanding Higher fidelity Increased accuracy? Faster processing

4. Introduction Approach Draw on previous work in several locations Evidence of directionality effects Representation of these effects Disaggregate behavioural evidence Parking location choice in Edmonton Commercial vehicle stop location choice in Calgary Intermediate shopping stop choice in Quebec City Aggregate system behavioural evidence Trip durations in Quebec City Historical development patterns in Quebec City Recent employment dynamics in Montréal

5. Parking Location Choice Edmonton 1983: Hunt Develop mode choice model for regional travel demand model Include parking location choice for CBD- destined auto driver alternative composite utility for parking parking demand allocation support mode and parking policy analysis

6. Data 1983 Morning Commuter Survey 80 employers (business & government establishments) 1702 travellers 468 drivers, selecting parking locations Employer parking policy regarding travellers 124 publicly available off-street parking facilities Unmetered on-street parking areas, aggregated into 12 areas

7. 1 km 107 Ave 104 Ave Jasper Ave 97 St N Jasper Ave 105 St101 St 109 St A I J C H E F G B D K L area of on-street parking CBD boundary Legend:

8. Parking Location Choice Model attributes in utility functions: Walking distance to final destination Parking charge per day Number of stalls Surface treatment – if paved or not Adjacent land use – if residential or not Security Cleanliness Angle relative to CBD and home, ANG

9. Parking Location Choice Model Nesting Structure employer arranged on-street off-street individual off-street locations individual on-street locations ….

10. ANG Measure home workplace parking location ANG

11. ANG Measure home workplace parking location ANG and ANG = 90° when Walk distance < 450 m for off-street Walk distance < 700 m for on-street

12. Parking Location Choice Edmonton

14. Findings: ANG appears to have influence driving time differences not included, potential for bias consider in future location choice modelling

15. Commercial Stop Location Choice Calgary commercial vehicle movements 2005: Hunt, Stefan, McMillan, Abraham, et al Develop model of ehicles operated for commercial purposes As opposed to household, personal movements Includes ‘non-commercial’ non-household purposes (government, not-for-profit) Comprise 10-15% of total urban traffic

16. Commercial Vehicle Movements Vehicles operated for commercial purposes As opposed to household, personal movements Includes ‘non-commercial’ non-household purposes (government, not-for-profit) Comprise 10-15% of total urban traffic

17. Some Examples Commercial Hauling freight for a company Service workers visiting clients Sales meetings Mail Delivering parcels Personal Travel to work Travel to school Shopping Leisure trips Social visits

18. Data 2001 Commercial Movement Study All commercial movements Not just freight Not just trucks 3,100 establishments in Calgary 4,300 establishments in Edmonton 24 hour stop diary Firmographics Employment structure Vehicle fleet

19. Tour-Based Microsimulation Tour Generation Tour Start Vehicle and Tour Purpose Next Stop Purpose Next Stop Location Stop Duration Iterative

20. Tour-Based Microsimulation Tour Generation Tour Start Vehicle and Tour Purpose Next Stop Purpose Next Stop Location Stop Duration Iterative

21. Next Stop Location Assigns location for each subsequent, non- establishment stop on each tour in list by 13 commercial model segments (industry, vehicle and tour purpose categories) Monte Carlo, probabilities based on Logit Single-level Logit among locations (zones) for next stop, total of 1,447 zones in model

22. Next Stop Location Choice Model attributes in utility function: Travel gen cost to potential stop location Travel gen cost for return to establishment from potential stop Population and employment accessibilities Land use coefficients (5 land uses) Average income for households at potential stop Population and employment size terms Enclosed Angle

23. Angle Measure

24. and ANGLE = 0 when starting tour NEXT STOP = CURRENT STOP

25. Commercial Stop Location Choice Calgary

27. base 1 2 3 4 5 +ve base 1 2 3 4 5 -ve

28. Findings: Enclosed angle has strong influence Sign changes for different segments Displaying different spatial patterns Driving gen cost differences included for next location and base location Stronger case for directionality influence Include in future location choice modelling Expect to find aggregate impacts Commercial Stop Location Choice Calgary

29. HBW Intermediate Shopping Choice Quebec City 2005: Thériault Model decision to make an intermediate shopping stop on trip from work Consider influence of locations relative to work - home axis ‘on the way’ vs ‘out of the way’ from work to home

30. Data 2001 OD Survey 29,249 workers with fixed workplace (not working at home) 825 intermediate shopping stops made during HBW trips 323 to large store 222 to small shop 270 to grocery

31. Stop to Shop Choice Model attributes in utility function: Gender Age Household size Household auto ownership Distance from home to central axis (Grande Allee) Distances from home to workplace Straight-line North-south and east-west components separately

32. distances from home to work with directionality components workplace home east-west component distance X-axis N straight-line distance north-south component distance Y-axis

33. Stop to Shop Choice Quebec City

37. Findings: Home location relative to central axis has +ve impact – more chaining of shopping with work travel when home location has relatively less nearby Home to work distance has +ve impact – more ‘on the way’ intermediate opportunities Directionality components of home to work distance have different impacts Y-Axis (N-S) +ve linear impact X-Axis (E-W) –ve logrithmic impact Perhaps related to highway network, with more high-speed capacity N-S Travel times & costs not included, potential for bias? HBW Intermediate Shopping Choice Quebec City

38. Trip Duration Influences Quebec City 2003: Vandermissen, Villeneuve and Thériault Examine how trip duration is influenced by alignment of trip origin and destination with CBD Hypothesis 1: Trip duration will decrease as alignment of origin and destination with CBD increases Hypothesis 2: Influence of alignment with CBD on trip duration will decrease as city becomes less monocentric ‘directionality’ here is relative to CBD

39. Data 1991 OD Survey (n=29,046) ; 2001 OD Survey (n=46,664) Congested network travel times - from model Trip purposes Work Study Shopping Leisure Other Traveller characteristics Gender Age Trip Characteristics Mode Time of Travel (peak vs off-peak) Distance from origin to CBD Distance from destination to CBD

40. Measure of Directionality CBD origin destination Path of trip in street network D perpen D perpen is the length of the perpendicular between the destination point and the locus of the straight line passing through the origin of the trip and the CBD

41. Measure of Directionality CBD origin destination Path of trip in street network D perpen D perpen is the length of the perpendicular between the destination point and the locus of the straight line passing through the origin of the trip and the CBD Origin and destination are aligned with CBD when D perpen = 0; As D perpen increases alignment decreases

42. Measure of Directionality CBD origin destination Path of trip in street network D perpen Hypothesis 1: Trip duration increases as D perpen increases D perpen is the length of the perpendicular between the destination point and the locus of the straight line passing through the origin of the trip and the CBD Origin and destination are aligned with CBD when D perpen = 0; As D perpen increases alignment decreases

43. Trip Duration Model independent variables in regression: Gender Age Mode Time of travel (peak vs off-peak) Distance from origin to CBD Distance from destination to CBD D perpen Measure of directionality of O-D relative to CBD Increase in D perpen less aligned with CBD; increase in trip duration +ve coefficient

44. Trip Duration Influences Quebec City

46. Findings: Trip duration decreases as alignment of origin and destination with CBD increases Supports Hypothesis 1 For full range of trip purposes More of a network effect, supply vs demand Combined with other work, this influence is increasing Potential for reinforcing directionality aspects of choice behaviour Trip Duration Model Quebec City

47. Historical Development Patterns Quebec City 2004: Thériault and Bourel Examine growth patterns Axes of development, impact of ‘on the way’ increasing activity at intermediate locations Role of CBD as reference

48. Data History of development Various points starting in 1830 Range of modal influences Rail encourages linear patterns in Quebec City Auto encourages more radial expansion in all directions with some clustering along high-speed roads Configuration of land parcels (normal to river)

49. Historical Development of Quebec City (1) Early 19 th Century Old City Core and Villages (2) Mid 19 th Century Development of “Faubourgs” (3) Turn of 20 th Century Extension of “Faubourgs” (4) 1920 -1945 – Axes appear New Neighbourhoods (5) 1945 -1960 – Axes confirm Beginning of urban sprawl (6) 1960-1975 – Axes consolidate Peak of urban sprawl – Remote towns (7) 1975 - 2000 – Filling gaps Some extension of axes – Suburbanization

50. Findings: Distinct axes appear Radial out from CBD Before sprawl Consistent with linear impact of ‘on the way’ directionality influence Also consistent with rail then auto impacts Parcel orientation also a factor Difficult to separate influences Historical Development Patterns Quebec City

51. Recent Employment Dynamics Montréal 2005: Barbonne Examine employment patterns 1981 and 2001 Axes of development, impact of ‘on the way’ increasing activity at intermediate locations Role of CBD as reference

52. Source: Barbonne,2005 Centrographic analyis suggests elongation of local labour markets

53. Findings: Distinct axes appear Radial out from CBD Before sprawl Consistent with linear impact of ‘on the way’ directionality influence Following roads oriented out form CBD Aggregate emergent behaviour, combining disaggregate choice behaviour system supply characteristics Recent Employment Dynamics Montréal

54. Conclusions For modelling: There is a directionality component to spatial choice behaviour Relevant demand and choice models should include representation of ‘on the way’ vs ‘out of the way’ relative to various reference locations along with usual time and cost elements Expectations regarding urban form: Axes of development apparent Planning and design: Acknowledge potential for CBD-based directionality in provision of transportation supply and in resulting travel times Consider longer term impacts of such directionality working in combination with demand and associated spatial choice behaviour Build on existing axes orientation

55. Further Material

56. Modelling the effect of directionality on trip duration In this section of the paper, directionality is defined with regard to CBD Hypothesis 1: Alignment of origin and destination of a trip with CBD should decrease duration Hypothesis 2: As cities become less monocentric, the effect of alignment should decrease First results, using an angular measure with small travel zones as the georeference, support Hyp 1 & 2 for work trips in Quebec City, comparing 1977 and 1996 (Vandersmissen, Villeneuve, Thériault, 2003). Now, we look at trip purposes other than work, using what appears to be a simpler measure of directionality, with a better georeference (6-character postal codes)

57. Are there planning implications? The effect of directionality seems to have increased during de 1990s. What happens in the aggregate? Jobs along corridors Elongated local labour markets around the CMA Elongated urban form, mixed-use and transit

59. -Lévis: concentric rings around CBD -Qc-Ste_Foy: segments of an urban corridor -Entropy measures diversity within rings and segments -Greater diversity in segments than in rings -Perhaps because of land price gradients? -But, here the segments are much more urbanized than the rings Does an elongated urban form favour mixed land use?

60. Concluding questions Is the directionality effect the same in the center as it is in the periphery? (center: 0.438 in 1991; 0.523 in 2001) (periphery: 0.434 in 91; 0,486 in 01) Are there alignments on other poles than the CBD? (or alignments of trips without poles?) Are the examples of Curitiba and Ottawa reproducible?

61. Acknowledgments to: Céline Bourel for computing the trip durations Rémy Barbonne for analyzing the local labour markets and mapping the jobs Simon Faucher for compiling data on poles and corridors RTC (réseau de transport de la Capitale and MTQ (ministère des transports du Québec) for giving access to the OD surveys