1. GLOBEC – International Integration & Synthesis Activities Steps to place GLOBEC in a Climate Change context Existing Programs New Programs Future Projections Global sponsors Regional sponsors

2. ESSAS Southern Ocean GLOBEC CLIOTOP CCCC CCC SPACC GLOBEC: a Regionally-implemented programme

3. NEMURO LTL A consensus conceptual model was designed representing the minimum trophic structure and biological relationships … thought to be essential in describing ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography

4. Yamanaka et al. (2005)

5. NEMURO.FISH

6. 50-year hindcast to look at “Regime Shift” signals in fish populations (Recent request from NOAA to PICES for advice on Regime Shifts – FERRRS Report)

8. WCVI Herring growth rate (age 3 to 4) Temperature Small zooplankton Large zooplankton Predatory zooplankton Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.

9. Summary of time series All three eastern Pacific locations show a shift in late 70’s: Herring growth increased in Bering Sea, but decreased in WCVI and PWS Temperatures warmed at each location Predatory zooplankton decreased

10. WCVI PWS B. Sea West Coast Vancouver Island: Zooplankton variation is most important (Temperature effect small) Prince William Sound: Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Zooplankton effect dominant Bering Sea: Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Temperature effect dominant Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.

11. ESSP Open Science Conference Marine Ecosystems: Trends, Feedbacks, and Predicting Future States 9-12 Nov. 2006 Future Projection of Ecosystem Change in the Western North Pacific Future Projection of Ecosystem Change in the Western North Pacific Taketo Hashioka 1, Yasuhiro Yamanaka 1,2, Takashi T. Sakamoto 2 and Fumitake Shido 1 (1. Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University ) (2. Frontier Research System for Global Change ) Thank to Dr. Maki Noguchi Aita for providing figures.

12. General Hypothesis : Ecosystem Change Associated with Global Warming 2/13 Ocean Acidification Decrease in CaCO 3 Producer by the Lower PH (This process is not included in our model) To predict the ecosystem change quantitatively… We need to understand, firstly, which process is more essential for ecosystem change, and secondly, how the ecosystem seasonally and regionally responds to global warming.

13. Ocean General Circulation Model ＊ CCSR Ocean Component model (Hasumi et al., 2002) ＊ Horizontal resolution: 1 o x 1 o degrees Ecosystem Model ＊ 15-Compartment model extended from NEMURO (Yamanaka et al., 2004) Boundary conditions for present-day sim. ＊ Monthly mean climatology from data-sets of OMIP and WOA 01 Purpose of This Study To predict the response of the lower-trophic level ecosystem to global warming, we conducted and compared the present-day and global warming experiments, using a 3-D NEMURO in the western North Pacific. SeaWiFS Annual Mean Chl-a Conc. Model Domain (20-60 o N, 115-170 o E) Kuroshio Current Oyashio Current 5/13

14. A data set of simulated fields according to the IS92a G.W. scenario, which contributed to the IPCC 3 rd report. (conducted by CCSR/NIES COAGCM ; Nozawa et al., 2001) Boundary Conditions for G.W. Experiment IS92a: Intermediate G.W. Scenario Boundary Conditions at the Sea Surface ＊ Wind Stress ＊ Sea Surface Temp. ＊ Fresh Water Flux ＊ Shortwave Radiation ＊ At the end of the 21st century (averaged from 2090 to 2100) 6/13

15. Increase in the Kuroshio Current from 40cm/s to 50cm/s at its maximum. associated with global warming. Change in Flow Field @ 100m 40cm/s Kuroshio Current +10cm/s (about 30%) (Present-day Simulation)(Global Warming) – (Present-day) Annual Mean 0 10 20 30 40 50 [cm/s] 0 3 6 9 12 [cm/s] Annual Mean Oyashio Current Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007 (in press, the Special Issue of NEMURO in Ecological Modeling) 7/13 1m/s 35N High-resolution model (1/4 o x1/6 o ) on the Earth Simulator The increase in the Kuroshio Current by 30% associated with G.W. is also reported by Sakamoto et al. (2005), using a high-resolution coupled climate model.

16. Percentage of Diatoms (%) Phy. Conc. (umolN/l) Transition Site (155E, 38N)Subarctic Site (155E, 45N) Subtropical Site (155N, 28N) ＊ The biomass change at the transition site is the largest due to the large change in MLD. 0.7 0.5 Diatoms Non-Diatom Small Phy. -30% Change in Seasonal Variations (0-20m) Black Line: Pre. Red Line: G.W. ＊ The onset of the spring bloom is predicted to occur half a month earlier. ＊ The maximum biomass in the spring bloom is predicted to decrease by 30%. ＊ The change in the dominant group appears notably at the end of the spring bloom. No Change 12/13

18. Small Pelagics And Climate Change SPACC

19. Toward a comparative approach of EBC dynamics. Discussions are underway for developing a concerted modelling approach involving several Institutes and scientists from EBC regions (led by French IRD) CanaryBenguela Humboldt

21. Are the models complex enough? (Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. A. Einstein )

22. NEMURO.FISH

23. Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North Sea Percentage of C. helgolandicus (Beaugrand)

24. Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North Sea Calanus helgolandicusCalanus finmarchicus months Years (1958-1999) 6065707580859095 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 6065707580859095 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Years (1958-1999)

25. diatoms calcifiers N 2 -fixers Phaeocystis picophytos nanophytos zoopl. filter feeders mesozoo- plankton SiO 2 CaCO 3 DOM microzoo- plankton Foram- inifera Process Observations bacteria Validation Observations Dynamic Green Ocean Model

26. Rhomboid Approach The rhomboids indicate the conceptual characteristics for models with different species and differing areas of primary focus. Rhomboid is broadest where model has its greatest functional complexity i.e., at the level of the target Organism. deYoung et al, 2004 But how to do it?

27. Calanus finmarchicus prey predators

28. BASIN Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and the dynamics of plankton and fish populations in the North Atlantic Ocean. BASIN Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and the dynamics of plankton and fish populations in the North Atlantic Ocean. A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North American countries

29. NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SHELF SEAS Climate forcing of ocean circulation (Heath et al.)

30. BASIN Aim To understand and simulate the population structure and dynamics of broadly distributed, and trophically and biogeochemically important plankton and fish species in the North Atlantic ocean to resolve the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, and thereby contribute to ocean management.

31. Modelling: Basic goals of BASIN Hindcast modelling studies to understand the observed variability of the North Atlantic ecosystem over (at least) the last 50 years Construction of scenarios of possible ecosystem changes in response to future climate variability We will focus on four major trophic components Primary production and biogeochemical cycles Zooplankton Planktivorous fish Demersal fish

32. Proposal to NSF’s PIRE: Partnership for International Research & Education US institutions: UNC-Chapel Hill LSU Rutgers NCAR Alaska Fisheries Science Center Japan: Hokkaido University JAMSTEC Tohuku Fisheries Lab Norway: Institute of Marine Research U of Bergen Bjerknes Center

33. Objectives  bring together key individuals from scientific cultures to continue already established partnerships that are developing ideas and approaches on using novel modeling approaches to quantify the impact of climate on marine ecosystems, and  teach young scientists and graduate students how to engage and develop international partnerships, and foster long-term programs for scientific and educational collaboration between the US, Japan and Norway, all of which are confronting potential severe changes in the structure and function of high latitude marine ecosystems in response to Earth’s changing climate and other anthropogenic stressors.