1. 1 Rolf Langland NRL-Monterey Plans for Evaluation of Lidar Wind Observations at NRL-Monterey Working Group on Space-Based Lidar Winds 05 Feb 2008

2. 2 1.T-PARC plans - Falcon and P-3 2.Data Assimilation Issues 3.Potential Benefit of Space-Based Lidar Wind Observations Outline of Talk

3. 3 airport base: Atsugi, Japan (tbc with US Navy) alternative airports: Okinawa, Misawa, Iwo Jima (?), Korea (?) flight time: 90 h plus 30 h for transfer planned schedule (depending on funding) total: 7-8 weeks incl. transfer/integration takeoff in Germany: 21 Aug 2008 arrival in Japan: 24/25 August 2008 last day in Japan: 4 October (~6 weeks in Japan) arrival in Germany: 7/8 October real-time data: dropsondes near real-time: aircraft in-situ, lidar quicklooks non-realtime: lidar data lidar aircraft manager: Andrea.Hausold@DLR.DE max. range: 1350-1600 NM max altitude: 12.8 km (42 kft) Falcon plans: T-PARC 2008

4. 4 wind lidar data: horiz resolution: ~10 km vert. resolution: 100 m number of wind profiles in Japan: 5400 number of profiles on transfer though Siberia: 1800 (the permission for observations in Russia is not certain yet) expected lidar coverage based on the experience from A-TReC 35% for 10-km horizontal resolution 55% for 40-km horizontal resolution Research interests: observation targeting extratropical transition of tropical cyclones and downstream impact value of new observing systems (lidars) tropical moisture export Falcon plans: T-PARC 2008

5. 5 Targeting Guidance for TC forecasts – NOGAPS singular vectors Adjoint-based observation impact evaluation (after reanalysis with T-PARC lidar observations) Conventional observation addition and denial forecast experiments (after reanalysis) NRL plans: T-PARC 2008

6. 6 NOGAPS Singular Vector Targeting Guidance Observation Target TimeForecast Verification Time Target area for additional observations

7. 7 Example of NOGAPS-NAVDAS Adjoint-based Observation Impact Reduction Increase Effect of observations on 24-hr fcst error norm

8. 8 Data Assimilation Issues for Lidar Observations Procedures for super-obbing or thinning of raw data Quality control – innovation checks Specification of observation and representativeness error

9. 9 Potential Benefits of Space-Based Lidar Observations Will observations fill gaps in current observing network (esp. 500-800 mb layer?) Will observations be in forecast error source regions? More accurate than other wind observations? How much data will be provided, and how frequently ?

10. 10 Current GEOSAT Wind Coverage 300 – 500 mb 500 – 700 mb 700 – 800 mb800 – 900 mb Impact of JMA – MTSAT wind observations

11. 11 Error Source Regions – Sensitivity to Initial Conditions January 2007 – 0000 and 1200UTC Analyses NOGAPS - NAVDAS

12. 12 60N 20N 130W 140E Observations in the North Pacific Region North Pacific Ocean

13. 13 04 Feb 2007 (00,06,12,18UTC) Total = 97,183 obs = 6.7% of global data North Pacific region observation data count - NAVDAS Ob Data Count

14. 14 Ob Data Count North Pacific Region Observation Variable Count - NAVDAS 04 Feb 2007 (00,06,12,18UTC)

15. 15 North Pacific observation impact sum - NAVDAS 1-31 Jan 2007 (00UTC analyses) Change in 24h moist total energy error norm (J kg -1 ) Error Reduction

16. 16 Error Reduction (x 1.0e 5 ) Change in 24h moist total energy error norm (J kg -1 ) 1-31 Jan 2007 (00UTC analyses) North Pacific forecast error reduction per-observation Ship Obs Targeted dropsondes = high-impact per- ob, low total impact

17. 17 End of Presentation !

18. 18 Excluding Aircraft & Satwind Observations Global observation density - NAVDAS 04 Feb 2007 (00,06,12,18UTC) Excluding Aircraft Observations Number of data in 5deg x 5deg lat-lon areas All Observations More satellite data over ocean Than over land