1. Chapter 9 The Postcommunist Divide By: Ai Morimoto

2. The Postcommunist Divide After the collapse of communism, countries separated into 2 political directions by geographical boundary The western part went to democracy - Liberal democracy: 16 countries in the west = Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia (Czech Republic and Slovakia) and Slovenia (1992) Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (1992) etc. - Illiberal democracy: Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia (1992) 3 countries in the east: Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004), and Moldova The eastern post-soviet part went to authoritarianism -Authoritarian: 9 out of 12 post-Soviet countries, including Russia (under Putin since 2000), Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan etc.

4. What drives and sustains democracy in post- communist states in the west? Regional Influence: democracy impelled by incentive of membership in NATO and the EU Postcommunist EU members: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (2004), Bulgaria and Romania (2007) (Croatia, Macedonia, the Balkan state are the potential candidate countries for admission)

5. To what extent the western part of post-communist states established democracy? Protection of human rights Fair and free electoral competition Political pluralism Independent judiciary system  However, democracy is still partial. It is liberal but troubled

6. What prevents countries from creating fully liberal democracy in the west part of post-communism? Corruption in government ex.) Hungary Lack of political stability -Ceaseless search for better political parties and people keep rejecting ruling parties ex.) Poland Intolerance against political opponent -Xenophobic sentiments by authoritarian nationalist parties which suppress political parties by minorities ex.) Serbia, Czech Republic (1993), Romania (2000) -Formation of political coalition against political competitor ex.) Poland (2005)

7. What drives democracy in the east part of post-communism (post-Soviet) ? Snowballing, role of civil society, and loss of legitimacy in authoritarian regime, democracy assistance: the color revolutions: in Georgia (2003) Ukraine (2004). They attained electoral competition but the countries are still pseudo-democracy

8. What prevents countries from creating democracy in the east part of post- communism (post-Soviet) ? authoritarianism prevails as the legacy of communism in Central Asia and the Caucasus region (transition from above) Power centralized in government Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan use outright tyranny. Repressive laws to constrict the activities of independent civil society org., mass media, religious groups, and political parties. Human rights abuse. The curse of oil (especially in Kazakhstan)

9. Diamond’s suggestion NATO and the EU need to keep pressure on illiberal democratic states, such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, to maintain electoral democracy The authoritarian regime in former Soviet Union will probably persist but the stability of these regimes should not be taken for granted In Kazakhstan, the trigger for change is more gradual economic development and global integration of its booming oil economy. Russia also depends on oil The stability of authoritarianism of the post-Soviet states depends on the stability of Russia because Russia has strong influence and pressure over the region

10. Discussion question Is there any way that can prevent a country with big oil revenue from concentrating power in political elites? What can sustain democracy in post-communist states?