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© Crown copyright Met Office Atlantic MOC Variability in Decadal Climate Prediction Systems Holger Pohlmann, with contributions from M. Balmaseda, N. Keenlyside,

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Presentation on theme: "© Crown copyright Met Office Atlantic MOC Variability in Decadal Climate Prediction Systems Holger Pohlmann, with contributions from M. Balmaseda, N. Keenlyside,"— Presentation transcript:

1 © Crown copyright Met Office Atlantic MOC Variability in Decadal Climate Prediction Systems Holger Pohlmann, with contributions from M. Balmaseda, N. Keenlyside, D. Matei, W. Müller, P. Rogel, and D. Smith

2 © Crown copyright Met Office Content 1. Motivation 2. Overview of Experiments 3. AMOC Variability 1960-2005 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions 5. Conclusions

3 © Crown copyright Met Office 1. Motivation (Pohlmann et al., JoC, 2004 and 2006) Idealized Experiments with ECHAM5/MPIOM: Time (years) MOC anom. (Sv) OHT anom. (PW) Atlantic MOC and Ocean Heat Transport ºC Atlantic MOC (30°N) Predictability 95% AR-1 Cor MOC (Sv)

4 © Crown copyright Met Office 1. Motivation (Pohlmann et al., JoC, 2009) NoAssim ECHAM5/MPIOM initialized with GECCO (T&S): Assim (black) Hindcasts years 1-5 (blue) Hindcasts years 6-10 (green) NoAssim (red) Cor AMOC (48°N) Period (years) 95% MOC (Sv)

5 © Crown copyright Met Office 2. Overview of Experiments From ENSEMBLES and other projects: Institute ModelAssimilation Hind- and Forecasts period (ens size)(start dates x ens size) ECMWF IFS-HOPE1959-2006 (5)1960, 65, …-2005 (10x3) CERFACS ARPEGE-OPA1960-2005 (9)1960, 65, …-2005 (10x3) INGV ECHAM4-OPA1960-2005 (3) IFM-GEOMAR ECHAM5-MPIOM1950-2005 (3)1955, 60, …-2005 (11x3) MOHC HadGEM21960-2004 (3) MOHC DePreSys PPE1959-2006 (9)1960, 61, …-2005 (46x9) MOHC DePreSys1960-2005 (1)1960, 65, …-2005 (10x10) MPI ECHAM5-MPIOM1952-2001 (1)1952, 53, …-2001 (50x1) MPI ECHAM5-MPIOM1952-2001 (2)1960, 61, …-2001 (42x1) MPI ECHAM5-MPIOM1948-2007 (1)1948, 49, …-2007 (60x1)

6 © Crown copyright Met Office 3. AMOC Variability 1960-2005 Assimilation Experiments: AMOC* (45°N) *(3yr running means)

7 © Crown copyright Met Office Assimilation Experiments: AMOC* (45°N) 3. AMOC Variability 1960-2005 *(3yr running means)

8 © Crown copyright Met Office 3. AMOC Variability 1960-2005 Assimilation Experiments: AMOC (40°N) AMOC (26°N) AMOC (45°N)

9 © Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions Multi-model mean: AMOC (45°N) 95% correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed)

10 © Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions Hindcasts NoAssim correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95% DePreSys PPE (AMOC 45°N):

11 © Crown copyright Met Office AMOC (40°N) AMOC (26°N) Multi-model mean: 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95%

12 © Crown copyright Met Office AMOC (40°N) AMOC (26°N) Multi-model mean: 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95%

13 © Crown copyright Met Office correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95% AMOC (45°N) 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions What is causing the problem in the 1990s?

14 © Crown copyright Met Office AMOC (45°N) in Each System: 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions CERFAS ECMWF IFM-GEOMAR DePreSys XBT corr. (dotted)

15 © Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions CERFAS ECMWF IFM-GEOMAR DePreSys XBT corr. (dotted) AMOC (45°N) in Each System: North Atlantic Heat Content:

16 © Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions MPI MPI coarse MPI-NCEP DePreSys PPE AMOC (45°N) in Each System:

17 © Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions AMOC (45°N) in Each DePreSys PPE Member: (1) (7) (5) (4) (2) (6) (3) (9) (8)

18 © Crown copyright Met Office What is causing the problem in the 1990s? 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions DePreSys PPE: Assim NoAssim => The hindcasts heading in general towards NoAssim

19 © Crown copyright Met Office Conclusions Assimilation Experiments: When the AMOCs at 45°N are normalized we find a signal in the ensemble mean of increasing strength from the 1960s to the 1990s and a decrease thereafter. This signal matches observed variations in NAO, SPG, and LS convection. Hindcast Experiments: Multi-model ensemble predictions are skilful up to about 5 years. Beyond the 5 years the AMOCs of the the DePreSys PPE hindcasts follow their transient experiments.

20 © Crown copyright Met Office Questions?

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