1. Multiplying Capitals: The Challenge of Quantitative Modeling Using the Community Capitals Framework Stephen Gasteyer Michigan State University

2. Why integrate CCF with biophysical and socio-economic modeling efforts There are increasing attempts to model biophysical processes There are increasing calls from policy and decision makers to use models to mitigate risk There is increasing recognition of the import of socio-economic processes

3. Some challenges to use of CCF Models are predictive… CCF is an heuristic device – a framework… In and of itself, it is not a theory – and therefore does not imply hypotheses It therefore needs to be married with other frameworks to be used in making prediction Or needs to adopt a more historical approach that allows for prediction using the framework as a heuristic

4. Additional challenges CCF is not based on mathematical principles Indeed, while there is a focus on indicators, many of the most important indicators are qualitative and have to be constructed into quantitative measures CCF is contextual – so there is a challenge in rigorously aggregating over space

5. Key connections to existing frameworks Resilience theory – (Regime Theory) Risk theory – Renn’s dialogic frameworks… Socioecological Systems (SES) – Derivative from Institutional Analysis for Development (IAD) – Integrating social systems theories… – Integrating actual community dynamics Capacity theory…

6. Quantifying Capitals Community Capitals Framework NaturalSocialCulturalFinancialBuiltHumanPolitical Secondary Data NaturalFinancialSurveySocialBuiltNaturalInterviewsPoliticalHuman Community Capitals Framework

7. Secondary Data 1.Financial Capital 1.Population Change 2.Poverty reduction 3.Change in number of small businesses 4.Income 2.Built Capital 1.Change in Vacant Housing Units 2.Local industries # increasing/ Decreasing? 3.Political Capital 1.Consolidated Federal Funds (OMB) 2.USDA RD Funding (USDA) 1.Natural Capital 1.Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) 2.Soil Quality (USDA) 3.Air Quality (EPA 4.Land Use (NRI – Regional Planning) 5.Water Use (USGS) 6.Water Quality (EPA) 2.Cultural Capital 1.How far people travel to get to work (Census-- stay in community or leave?) 3.Human Capital 1.Graduation Rates from elementary school, middle school and high school 2.Out-migration/ in-migration of educated population? 3.Education levels of community members 4.Change in % of people of working age (18 to 64) 5.Change in % of Employment

8. Primary Indicators Social Capital Cultural Capital

9. Measuring Capacities

10. Modeling CCF? Path Models Structural Equation Models Models of Resilience

11. Conclusion Modeling CCF What are the strategies for modeling CCF across time and space? How to integrate with biophysical models? Can CCF integrate with predictive theories?