1. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Rebin Said / Else Veldman – The Netherlands Session 5 – Paper 0412 Investment strategy for low voltage networks regarding new technologies in new neighbourhoods

2. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Overview  Problem statement  Investment analysis  Conclusions

3. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Problem statement  Invest now or postpone investments?

4. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Problem statement  Invest now or postpone investments?

5. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Problem statement  Invest now or postpone investments? Aspects  Uncertainty energy transition  Optimal investment moment  Uncertain costs  Net losses  Net Present Value

6. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment analysis Investment costs depends on:  technologies introduced to the network  investment options

7. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Future technologies Multiple cases possible Two extremes MAX load - MIN generation MIN load - MAX generation Case Before simplificationAfter simplification 1)EV 2)HP 3)AIRCO 4)EV + HP 5a)EV + AIRCO (summer) EV + AIRCO 5b)EV + AIRCO (winter)EV + AIRCO 6)EV + AIRCO + HP 7a)HP + AIRCO (summer) HP + AIRCO 7b)HP + AIRCO (winter)HP + AIRCO 8)PV 9)u-CHP 10a)PV + u-CHP (summer)PV + u-CHP 10b)PV + u-CHP (winter)PV + u-CHP

8. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment options

9. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment options Option 1 Parallel Cable

10. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Option 1 Parallel Cable Option 2 Additional transformer Investment options

11. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment analysis Other issues, strategy 1 vs. strategy 2:  Digging and installation costs will increase  Higher net losses in strategy 2  Realization investments take time: potential barrier for energy transition impact on customer comfort  Higher certainty when delaying investments

12. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment analysis Stategy 1: Invest now Digging & installation costs (%)  Investment costs (€) 

13. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment analysis Stategy 2: Postpone investments 10 years Digging & installation costs (%)  Investment costs (€)  5%25% strategy 2 cheaper if digging costs increase <5% 25% increase in digging costs expected

14. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment analysis Stategy 2: Postpone investments 20 years Digging & installation costs (%)  Investment costs (€)  50% strategy 2 cheaper if digging costs increase <50% 50% increase in digging costs expected

15. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Investment analysis Stategy 2: Postpone investments 30 years Digging & installation costs (%)  Investment costs (€)  120% 75% strategy 2 cheaper if digging costs increase <120% 75% increase in digging costs expected

16. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Conclusions  Postpone investments (strategy 2) best if investments are needed after 20 or 30 years  Invest now (strategy 1) best if the investments would be needed within ten years  However: conservative case investigated: high penetration of technologies and large loads low probability this will be realized within 10 years

17. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Conclusions  Therefore, following strategy 2 by postponing the investments to a later moment would yield a more optimal investment

18. Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011 Questions & Answers Rebin Said / Else Veldman – The Netherlands Session 5 – Paper 0412