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By Maxwell Justice Mentor: Dr. Susan Moran NASA Space Grant Symposium University of Arizona April 17 th, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "By Maxwell Justice Mentor: Dr. Susan Moran NASA Space Grant Symposium University of Arizona April 17 th, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 By Maxwell Justice Mentor: Dr. Susan Moran NASA Space Grant Symposium University of Arizona April 17 th, 2010

2 DSSAT Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop growth model Predicts future crop yield based on weather data and field parameters

3 Objectives To determine the potential for updating soil moisture states in DSSAT to influence yield predictions. To prepare the DSSAT application for the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite.

4 Methods Direct insertion of soil moisture observations at the beginning of a daily model time-step were used to mimic the satellite overpass that occurs at local 6 a.m. Observing System Simulation Experiment (synthetic data) Sobol’ Sensitivity Analysis on frequency, precision of observations and soil parameters

5 Assimilation Process Diagram Soil Moisture (SM) TRUE SM Observations Predicted Yield Θ i Parameters DSSAT Θ TRUE Parameters  i Measurement Error DSSAT

6 Sobol’ Method of Sensitivity Analysis Basic Idea Equations Numerically analyze a single parameter’s effect on overall crop yield Method incorporates a covariance relationship Monte Carlo Integration: larger sets of data make measuring sensitivity more accurate

7 Results We determined that DSSAT assimilation is sensitive to the accuracy and density of soil moisture observations. Observation Error

8 Results Comparison between the aggregate of the total sensitivity values for the two parameter sets. Observation Error and Number of Observations All other Parameters

9 Summary of Project Successfully proved hypothesis that updating soil moisture states has significant effect on the DSSAT model output. The results from the sensitivity analysis are based on single crop (wheat). Further testing is needed on other crops to ensure accuracy. Next Step: determine the potential for improving predictions of crop yield. What I learned…

10 Thank You! Contributors to the Project Grey Nearing Dr. Susan Moran Dr. Chandra Holifield Collins Dr. Kelly Thorp NASA Arizona Space Grant USDA- ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center

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