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National Transportation || || Presentation at 15 th TRB Planning Application.

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1 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Presentation at 15 th TRB Planning Application Conference, Atlantic City, NJ, 5/17~21, 2015 Integrating Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Agent-Based Travel Behavior Models for Cumulative Land Development Impact Analysis Lei Zhang 1, Zheng Zhu 2, Chenfeng Xiong 2, Xiqun Chen 3, and Xiang He 2 1.Associate Professor and Director of the National Transportation Center; 2. Graduate Student; 3. Research Scientist; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland Contact: 301-405-2881; lei@umd.edulei@umd.edu 1

2 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Background Research Objectives Integrate agent-based behavior model (AgBM) with dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) to capture individual behavior changes and traffic dynamics Real-World Application: Cumulative land development impact study along the I- 270 and MD 355 corridor in Montgomery, Maryland 2

3 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Overview of Model Integration 3

4 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Application in Maryland 4

5 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Study Area 5 MWCOG CoverageMWCOG Model in DTAlite Legend Freeway Arterial Subarea

6 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu 2010 and 2030 Networks 6 20102030 Network Mileage 26062686 # of inter- sections 789802 # of trips (million) 2.863.28

7 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu New Sector Plans along I-270 7 Rockville Silver Spring Bethesda Legend Sector Plans City Names Road Way Rockville Gaithersburg GREAT SENECA SCIENCE CORRIDOR WASHINGTON GROVE SHADY GROVE WHITE FLINT GROSVENOR

8 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Population Change 2010-2030 8 Total POP: 2010: 1,152,132 2030: 1,366,428 Silver Spring

9 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Employment Change 2010-2030 9 Total EMP: 2010 636,210 2030 785,083

10 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Land Development Scenarios 2010 Base Case Scenario 2010 scenario without any sector plan development 2030 Scenario 2030 scenario with all sector plan developments Only considers routing and traffic congestion changes 2030 Scenario After Behavior Switch 2030 scenario with all sector plan developments Consider traffic congestion and all behavior changes 10

11 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Overall Development Impact Cumulative Development Impact of All Sector Plans along the I-270/MD 355 Corridor 11 Year2010 Base Case 2030 w. Development 2030 After Switch Num. of Trips 426,958493,308 Avg. Travel Time (min) 20.126.7 (33%)24.5 (22%) Avg. Travel Time Index 1.782.22 (25%)2.05 (15%) Avg. Speed (mph) 36.232.0 (-12%)34.0 (-6%)

12 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Traffic Congestion Comparison 12 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu 2010 AM Density 2030 AM Density

13 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Peak Spreading Impact 13 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu The Duration of the AM Peak Period will Increase by 45 Minutes.

14 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu I-270 SB Travel Time by TOD 14 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

15 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Changes in Destinations/Routes 15 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Diverting from I-270 and MD 355 to ICC and I-495 (Southbound Traffic, AM Peak) Legend Through traffic Diverting traffic 1: ICC 2: I-495 Unit: 1000 trips20102030Change I-270 Thru32.736.110% MD355 Thru4.56.032% I-270 Divert4.39.7123% MD355 Divert1.12.9170% 20102030Change I-270 Thru25.225.82% MD355 Thru9.310.512% I-270 Divert14.013.07% MD355 Divert0.40.656% Legend Through traffic Diverting traffic

16 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Summary 16 An integrated modeling tool for individual or cumulative land development impact analysis (and ICM, ATM, and TSM&O applications) Builds on 4-step travel demand, agent-based travel behavior, and dynamic traffic assignment models Considers local and regional traffic impact Shows traffic impact by intersection, by corridor, by subarea, and by time of day (min-by-min) Incorporates behavior responses such as routing change, traffic redistribution, peak spreading, and modal shifts Visualizes results with easy-to-understand graphs and animation

17 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Thank You! Questions, Comments, and Suggestions are Welcome. Please Contact: Lei Zhang, Ph.D. Associate Professor Director, National Transportation Center Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 1173 Glenn Martin Hall, University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 Email: lei@umd.edulei@umd.edu Phone: 301-405-2881 Web: http://www.lei.umd.edu Center: http://www.ntc.umd.eduhttp://www.lei.umd.eduhttp://www.ntc.umd.edu 17

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