1. PLS 121: American Politics and Government Political Science What is Science?

2. 2 / 23 The Story Thus Far… So far: –The Communist Manifesto Today: –Some nomenclature to help us understand some of the aspects of science. Next Time: –The philosophy of science and how we know when something is science.

3. 3 / 23 Some Nomenclature Theory Fact Law Hypothesis Operationalization Causation

4. 4 / 23 Theory Primary means of understanding the interactions in the world General understanding of the relationship between the variables Requirements in science: –General –Deal with a large set of related results –Produce empirical hypotheses

5. 5 / 23 Fact A generally agreed-upon interpretation of a phenomenon by competent observers Example: –The United States and Iraq were at war between January 17 and February 27, 1991.

6. 6 / 23 Law A statement, with narrow scope, that has yet to be proven false –If ever shown to be false, it is totally discarded Much narrower in scope than a theory, often focusing on one set of phenomena Example: –Modern democracies do not war with other modern democracies.

7. 7 / 23 Hypothesis A proposed answer to a research question An empirical statement about a relationship between empirical variables

8. 8 / 23 Hypothesis The statement creates a partition of the world of possibilities: –Events that support the statement –Events that conflict with the statement –Events that have nothing to do with the statement

9. 9 / 23 Hypothesis Requirements: –Empirical Observables –Falsifiable The set of conflicting events cannot be empty –General Must apply to more than just one instance

10. 10 / 23 Hypothesis Example: –Free states are less likely to initiate militarized interstate disputes. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

11. 11 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –Norway did not go to war with Luxembourg in 1990. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

12. 12 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –The United States should withdraw its forces from Iraq. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

13. 13 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –Democracies elect their political representatives. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

14. 14 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –States that adhere to International Law are more likely to use international institutions to settle interstate disputes. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

15. 15 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –Since 1972, states deemed free do not use violent force first in a conflict. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

16. 16 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –The freer the market, the freer the people. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

17. 17 / 23 Operationalization Each hypothesis contains at least two concepts Operationalization defines those concepts in empirical terms

18. 18 / 23 Operationalization Example: –Democracies do not war with other democracies –Definitions: A democracy is an independent state that elects its effective rulers. War is an interstate conflict in which more than 1000 combatants die.

19. 19 / 23 Operationalization Example? –State governments that use direct democracy are better for their residents. –Definitions: State governments refer to the governments of the 50 US states. Direct democracy refers to the initiative, referendum, and recall processes. Residents are those who live in the state.

20. 20 / 23 Causation When we say something causes something else, what do we mean? How do we show that A causes B? –‘Show’, ‘demonstrate’, ‘suggest’, but not ‘PROVE’. Requirements: –Exceptional Correlation –Theoretic Feasibility –Temporal Precedence

21. 21 / 23 Causation Example: –Electing liberal governments causes the terrorist groups within the state to reduce their violence. –Checklist: Exceptional Correlation Theoretic Feasibility Temporal Precedence

22. 22 / 23 Causation Example? –It has been shown that increases in ice cream sales always precede increases in the violent crime rate. –Checklist: Exceptional Correlation Theoretic Feasibility Temporal Precedence

23. 23 / 23 Assignment Write five hypotheses –Just scientific hypotheses, no need for operationalization now These hypotheses will be shared during class on Wednesday For this assignment ONLY: –Write your hypotheses using 16 point font (Arial or Time NR). Why? –The overhead projector needs that size to project well