1. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Comparison of the SSI data sets using observed and simulated evolution of the middle atmosphere during 2004-2010 A. Shapiro, T. Egorova, E. Rozanov and FUSPOL team PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland EAWAG, Dubendorf, Switzerland

2. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Questions Can we decide which SSI data set is right comparing simulated and measured ozone and temperature time series? How important is SSI for the future climate warming and ozone recovery?

3. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 19502004.052009.02 LEAN data SORCE data SSI data sets SIMSOLSTICELEAN 2007-2004

4. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 dO 3 (‰/nm): Ozone mixing ratio changes due to the observed variability of the spectral solar irradiance (min to max) (Rozanov et al. 2002) Key photochemical processes

5. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 ΔO 3 (%) 2004 - 2007 1D-RCPM

6. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 CCM SOCOL Lean data 2004.05- 2009.02 SIM and SOLSTICE dominated composites 2004.05-2009.02

7. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 121 nm 210 nm290 nm750 nm SOLSTICE SIM LEAN data + 2 composites: 5 ensemble runs with each dataset + 5 reference ensemble runs CCM SOCOL runs

8. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 ΔO 3 (%) 11.2004 – 11.2008, ΔO 3 (%) 11.2004 – 11.2008, No solar

9. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Comparison with observations

10. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Uncertainties

11. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Comparison with observations

12. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Uncertainties

13. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Conclusions Right choice of SSI is important for the stratosphere We can identify time/location when and where the simulated solar signal is significant However, the uncertainty of the available satellite data is not high enough to make definite conclusions Long-term and accurate measurements of all quantities are necessary

14. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Greenhouse warming Ozone depletion Solar variability Anthropogenic activity GHG ODS SI

15. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 From Barnard et al., 2011

16. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Model experiments Four experiments in time slice mode, 20-years, 10 years spin up “REF” “TSI” “SSI” “ANT”

17. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Future TSI Source: Shapiro et al., 2011 TSI for the reference = 1367.77 W/m 2 TSI for a strong minimum = 1363.87 W/m 2 Forcing = -0.7 W/m 2 Input for the radiation code of the model

18. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Future UV 205 nm ~ 15 % decrease

19. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 T 2m (K) for ANT and TSI runs

20. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 T 2m (K) for ANT and SSI runs

21. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 TOZ (DU) for ANT and TSI runs

22. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 TOZ (DU) for ANT and SSI runs

23. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Conclusions These results probably represent the upper limit of the possible solar influence. A deeper understanding and the construction of a better constrained set of future solar forcings and the application of the models with an interactive ocean are necessary to address the problem of predicting the future climate and state of the ozone layer with more confidence. The development of more reliable solar forcing data sets requires the maintenance and extension of all relevant satellite and ground-based observations as well as further theoretical investigations.

24. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 FUPSOL project Estimate the contribution of solar related forcings (irradiance and particles) to the climate and global ozone evolution during the from 17 th to end of 21 st centuries using ocean-chemistry-climate model.

25. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Thank you!

26. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 1D simulations

27. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Simulated ozone response Tropical mean 26 o N – 26 o S

28. TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Simulated temperature response Tropical mean 26 o N – 26 o S