1. R EVIEW OF THE I NVERSE F ARM S IZE -E FFICIENCY R ELATIONSHIP IN A FRICA : M ETHODOLOGICAL I SSUES AND E MPIRICAL E VIDENCE FROM T HREE A FRICAN C OUNTRIES Milu Muyanga, Chewe Nkonde, Godwin Debrah, T.S. Jayne Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University, USA Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007) Presented at the at the Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty 2015 March 23-27, 2015, Washington, DC

2. Background Renewed interest in the Inverse Farm Size-Efficiency Relationship (IR) among development economists Guiding land allocation policies for reduced poverty: Are prevailing land policies promoting national goals of agricultural productivity, food security and poverty reduction? Especially with… 24

3. Background Guiding land allocation policies for reduced poverty: Especially with… 1. Shrinking FARM SIZES due to mounting POPULATION pressure 2. Changing farm structure-- rising proportion of farmland among medium-scale farms in Africa 3. Limited non-farm employment opportunities 4. Persistent high poverty rates and food insecurity 23

4. Total rural population projections Source: UN Pop Council, 2013 22

5. Shrinking farm sizes 22

6. Background Guiding land allocation policies for reduced poverty: Especially with… 1. Shrinking farm sizes due to mounting population pressure 2. Changing FARM STRUCTURE-- rising proportion of land among medium-scale farms 3. Youth BULGE and limited NON-FARM employment opportunities 21

7. Changing farm structure 21

8. Background Guiding land allocation policies for reduced poverty: Especially with… 1. Shrinking farm sizes due to mounting population pressure 2. Changing farm structure-- rising proportion of farmland among medium-scale farms in Africa 3. Looming employment challenge: YOUTH BULGE and limited NON-FARM employment opportunities 20

9. Looming employment challenge in SSA 62% < 25 years old 20

10. Tests of the IR hypothesis take on even greater policy importance in light of recent studies questioning the viability and even the objectives of promoting small- scale agriculture in Africa 19

11. Contribution [I] Explore the IR hypothesis over a much wider range of farm sizes - a statistically representative sample of farms between 1 and 100 hectares Inform current policy discussions about how governments should allocate unutilized/underutilized land in order to achieve national equity and productivity goals Unutilized/underutilized land is being claimed and transferred at a very rapid pace in some countries 18

12. Contribution [II] Number of studies have conventionally measured productivity as yield and or net value of crop production per unit area of land Our study is based on a wider set of productivity measures: Net value of total crop production per unit of area planted (land productivity) Net value of crop production per adult labor unit (labor productivity) Cost of production per metric ton of maize produced (cost effectiveness) 17

13. Contribution [III] Account for both variable and fixed costs when computing the cost of production. Most of the prior studies typically ignored fixed and labor costs Led to overstated productivity of farms with high fixed and labor costs 16

14. Data sources KENYA Data on about 300 smallholder (0-5ha) farm households came from Egerton University/Tegemeo Institute collected in 2010 in 5 counties in Western Kenya A survey involving 200 medium scale (5-100ha) farmers in the same counties was collected in 2012 GHANA Data on 498 small and medium farms came from four districts in Southern Ghana ZAMBIA Smallholder and medium-scale household surveys from 6 districts 15

15. Methods 14

16. Results 22

17. KENYA: Medium-scale farms productivity 13

18. KENYA: Smallholder farms productivity 12

19. KENYA: Smallholder farms productivity 11

20. KENYA: Farm production cost 10

21. KENYA: Farm production costs- components 9

22. KENYA: Labor costs- components 8

23. GHANA: Farm productivity 7 Net value of production on Landholdings in Acres Net value of production on Area planted in Acres

24. GHANA: Farm productivity 6 Family labor productivity on Landholdings in Acres Family labor productivity on Area planted in Acres

25. GHANA: Farm productivity 5 Cost of maize production on Landholdings in Acres Cost of maize production on Area planted in Acres

26. ZAMBIA: Farm productivity & efficiency 4

27. Policy implications

28. Large scale Medium- scale (5-100 ha) Small- scale (0-5 ha) Total land controlled Potentially available cropland remaining Millions of hectares Ghana3.084.215.08= 12.373.56 Kenya0.690.842.63= 4.161.01 Zambia2.112.472.09= 6.673.35 To which scale of farming should the remaining PAC be allocated? 3 Source: Jayne et al. 2014 (JIA)

29. Policy implications 1. Production efficiency, while relevant, should not be the ONLY factor in guiding agricultural and land policies Which scale has the largest multiplier and employment effects? Which scale has the highest marginal propensity to consume? 2. All depends on the government’s development objective: Production for domestic food self sufficiency and export market? Broad based growth for reduced food insecurity and poverty reduction? 3. In in all, the changing farm structure is going to continue in the next 5-10 years Drivers: political economy factors and market forces 2

30. Policy implications 1. Production efficiency, while relevant, should not be the ONLY factor in guiding agricultural and land policies Which scale has the largest multiplier and employment effects? Which scale has the highest marginal propensity to consume? 2. All depends on the government’s development objective: Production for domestic food self sufficiency and export market? Broad based growth for reduced food insecurity and poverty reduction? 3. In in all, the changing farm structure is going to continue in the next 5-10 years Drivers: political economy factors and market forces 2

31. Policy implications 1. Production efficiency, while relevant, should not be the ONLY factor in guiding agricultural and land policies Which scale has the largest multiplier and employment effects? Which scale has the highest marginal propensity to consume? 2. All depends on the government’s development objective: Production for domestic food self sufficiency and export market? Broad based growth for reduced food insecurity and poverty reduction? 3. In all, the changing farm structure is going to continue in the next 5-10 years Drivers: political economy factors and market forces 2

32. 1 Conclusion Land policies will determine whether millions of rural Africans will make a decent livelihood How supportive the land allocation and agricultural policies are to smallholders African leaders may soon realize that political stability will depend on how the remaining land is distributed and the profitability of family farming

34. Acknowledgements